593
FXUS65 KPIH 010706
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
106 AM MDT Mon Jul 1 2024

.SHORT TERM...Today and Tuesday. A band of showers and
thunderstorms will slowly work east this morning. Gusty winds over
35 mph and some light rain/sprinkles. We will see more widespread
showers and storms develop this afternoon north of a Hailey to
Freedom, WY line...with the greatest concentration across the
central mountains east across the northern end of the Snake Plain
and into the Island Park area. This is where the highest potential
of winds over 40mph will be (30-70%). A few storms are possible
across the South Hills and along the Utah border as well. Locally
heavy rainfall is likely across portions of the eastern highlands
with all of this during the afternoon and evening hours. Outside
of storms we should see gusty winds, especially across the Magic,
south end of the Snake Plain and South Hills/Albion Mountains. We
are barely hitting LAKE WIND thresholds for American Falls
Reservoir. With the advisory already in place, we will just leave
it in place. We will see showers and isolated storms east of I-15
after midnight, but those should be ending toward sunrise. A few
afternoon showers and storms are expected around Island Park
Tuesday. It will be less breezy Tuesday as well.  Keyes

.LONG TERM...Wednesday through next Monday.

Extended forecast continues to show mainly dry conditions as a ridge
across the Pacific Northwest will send active weather to our east.
Northwest flow over our region will allow for seasonable
temperatures through the work week. By the weekend, most model
solutions (around 75%) show the ridge building eastward bringing
above normal temperatures to central and east Idaho. Low 90s are
likely to return to parts of the Snake Plain and Magic Valley over
the weekend. As we head into next week, the models split in how to
handle the ridge. Most solutions (slightly more than 50%) maintain a
strong ridge over the area which allows temperatures in the Snake
Plain and Magic Valley to climb into the mid and upper 90s. The
other half of model solutions are very different with almost no
consensus among them. As a result, the NBM is heavily weighted on
the warm solutions that are in agreement.

13

&&

.AVIATION...Line of showers should move east of TAF sites by 12z.
Ceilings should be VFR across most of the region today. However,
expect thunderstorm development that could impact IDA and DIJ this
afternoon. Looks like PIH, BYI and SUN may be in the dry slot for
convection. Gusty conditions are once again likely at Snake Plain
sites with 25 to 30 kts likely. If SUN turns upvalley late this
morning or this afternoon, will likely be only for a couple hours
before winds switch to west-southwest with gusts to 20kts possible
there.

13

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A band of showers and isolated thunderstorms will
continue to push east early this morning, with some lingering
activity around Island Park late morning. Showers and
thunderstorms will redevelop this afternoon mainly north of a
Hailey to Pocatello to Freedom, WY line. The greatest coverage
will be across the central mountains (475/476), the upper end of
the Snake Plain (410) and all of Zone 411. Gusts over 40mph are
possible, with the highest potential (30-70%) across Zone 476,
northern end of 410 and all of 411. Wetting rains are likely
up north (50-80%+), while elsewhere...the chance is much more
localized and lower. Isolated storms are also possible along the
Utah border in Zones 413 and 427, with those likely being dry
storms. Showers and storms shift east of I-15 overnight and should
be done before sunrise Tuesday. There remains a low end chance of
afternoon/evening storms around Island Park through the 4th. Winds
increase on Wednesday, with gusts of 25-35 mph common across all
of central and eastern Idaho. We may need to watch for elevated
fire conditions in some spots where fuels are curing or already
cured. Winds are lower on the 4th with humidity rising compared to
Wednesday.  Keyes


&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$