218
FXUS65 KPIH 041034
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
434 AM MDT Fri Jul 4 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Expect showers and thunderstorms today bringing moderate to
  heavy rainfall, gusty winds, and small to moderate hail as an
  upper level wave/trough pushes east. Some severe afternoon
  thunderstorms are possible bringing large hail and wind gusts
  over 58 mph.


- Cooler temperatures today and Saturday with highs only in the
  70s and 80s.

- Very dry conditions are expected to return by Sunday and
  continue through next week with an overall warming trend as
  well. Temperatures will return to the 90s and even approaching
  100 for lower elevations by next Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 211 AM MDT Fri Jul 4 2025

An upper-level wave/trough moving through the area will bring
widespread showers and thunderstorms today. Expect gusty winds
of 40 to 55 mph, moderate to heavy rainfall, and small to
moderate hail with showers and thunderstorms today. The first
round of mostly showers is moving into our western and southern
areas currently and is forecast to move north northeast this
morning. The second round of showers and moderate to strong
thunderstorms is expected this afternoon with heating. Our
western areas have shear values of 35 to 45 kts with about 500
J/kg of CAPE and for southeast areas east of I-15 extending to
the Wyoming and Utah borders around 25 to 30 kts of shear and up
to around 1000 J/kg of CAPE. Expect moderate hail and strong
wind gusts with a few storms possible with hail over 1 inch and
some storms possible with wind gusts over 58 mph. Most hail
will be pea to moderate and most wind gusts will be 40 to 55
mph. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has our entire area in a
marginal risk of severe thunderstorms today (mostly this
afternoon). The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) has a marginal
risk of excessive rainfall, mainly over our northern areas
(northern Central mountains, Lost River Range, the Montana
Divide and the northern Eastern Highlands along the northern
Wyoming border). Moderate to heavy rainfall over the Wapiti Fire
burn scar by Stanley Idaho is expected this morning. Flash
flooding and debris flow caused by excessive rainfall is
possible. A flash flood watch is in effect for the Wapiti Fire
burn scar for this morning.

Thunderstorm activity is expected to diminish around 8 to 9 pm
today, though a few showers along the Wyoming border could
linger just beyond midnight. Most winds across the area will be
below 10 to 15 mph by 9 to 10 pm.

Isolated showers and thunderstorms remain possible for Saturday
afternoon/evening with heating, mainly for our northern areas.
Otherwise, high pressure rebounds across the Intermountain West
by late Saturday, starting a drying and warming trend.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 211 AM MDT Fri Jul 4 2025

High pressure will build in beginning early next week, keeping
conditions dry throughout the remainder of the extended period.
Temperatures will continuously warm into the middle of next week,
with many locations likely to observe above normal temperatures
during this timeframe. Daytime highs will rise into the 90s across
the low elevations on Monday/Tuesday, with 80s in the mid-elevations
and mountain valleys, and 70s in the mountains. By Wednesday, much
of the eastern Magic Valley and portions of the Snake River Plain
could reach or come within a few degrees of triple digits. Long-
range models feature a shortwave swinging through Idaho later week,
with the main impacts at this time looking to be an increase in
clouds and a five or so degree cool-down for Thursday and Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 430 AM MDT Fri Jul 4 2025

Two rounds of activity are anticipated today, with the first
already overspreading the region early this morning but still
currently south of KIDA and KDIJ. Each terminal will likely see
a lull in activity mid-to late morning before convective
initiation this afternoon around 20z/21z. The strongest storms
will be capable of producing moderate to large hail and gusts
to around 50 kts.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 211 AM MDT Fri Jul 4 2025

A broad area of showers is developing along our western and
southern areas early this morning and models show this band of
precipitation to move north northeast this morning. Wetting
rains will be possible with this feature, mainly over higher
elevation zones. Behind the main band, afternoon heating will
allow a few thunderstorms to develop. Overall chances for
wetting rains during the day Friday exceed 20 to 30% for all but
the Middle Snake region. Most of the Northern Sawtooth, Salmon-
Challis, and Targhee NFs have a 70 to 90% chance of wetting
rains. Localized rainfall amounts could approach or exceed one-
quarter inch especially with heavier shower and thunderstorm
occurrence. Strong wind gusts of 40 to 55 mph (with localized
higher gusts) with showers and thunderstorms are likely,
especially in the afternoon. Cooler temperatures and higher
daytime humidities remain forecast.

Thunderstorm activity is expected to diminish around sunset
today, though a few showers could linger just beyond midnight.
Isolated showers and thunderstorms remain possible for Saturday
afternoon/evening with heating, mainly for our northern areas.
Otherwise, high pressure rebounds across the Intermountain West
by late Saturday starting a drying and warming trend. Expect
very dry conditions and well-above normal temperatures through
mid-week next week.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 211 AM MDT Fri Jul 4 2025

Expect moderate to heavy rainfall today with showers and
thunderstorms from a trough moving through the area. The Weather
Prediction Center (WPC) has a marginal risk of excessive
rainfall mainly over our northern areas (northern Central
mountains, Lost River Range, the Montana Divide and the northern
Eastern Highlands along the northern Wyoming border). Moderate
to heavy rainfall over the Wapiti Fire burn scar by Stanley
Idaho is expected this morning. Flash flooding and debris flow
caused by excessive rainfall is possible. Models are showing a
better chance of precipitation on the western slopes of the
Sawtooth mountains opposed to the eastern slopes or the Stanley
side. A flash flood watch is in effect from 6 AM this morning
until 2 pm this afternoon for the Wapiti burn scar. Another
round of precipitation is possible late this afternoon into the
early evening from showers and thunderstorms. Looking at the
HREF model there is a 60% chance of 0.50 inch of precipitation
late this afternoon into the early evening. &&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

A flash flood watch is in effect from 6 AM this morning until 2
pm this afternoon for the Wapiti burn scar near Stanley, Idaho.

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TW
LONG TERM...Cropp
AVIATION...Cropp
FIRE WEATHER...TW
HYDROLOGY...TW