843
FXUS65 KPIH 111946
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
146 PM MDT Sat Oct 11 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and isolated thunderstorms today and much colder. Snow
  levels dropping to 5 to 6 thousand feet tonight.

- 1-4" snowfall anticipated above 6500 ft including passes
  Saturday night into Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 143 PM MDT Sat Oct 11 2025

Upper trough and associated cold front are swinging through the
region today, bringing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms,
mountain snow, breezy winds, and much cooler temperatures.
Temperatures are dropping behind the front, already running more
than 20 degrees below yesterday`s temperatures. Overnight lows
will remain mild due to cloud cover, with low to mid-30s in the
valleys and 20s in the mountains. Expect a little more sun on
Sunday, but daytime temperatures will run up to 15 degrees below
normal still with widespread 40s to low 50s and 30s in the
higher terrain. HREF probability of thunder ranges 20 to 80
percent across the east and southeast highlands this afternoon,
increasing further east and south along our borders with UT and
WY. Thunderstorms will be capable of gusts 30 to 40 mph. Outside
of storms, winds will generally gust 20 to 30 mph. Snow levels
will drop below 6,000 feet behind the front, allowing 1"-4" of
snow to accumulate above 6,500 feet elevation in the eastern
highlands late tonight into early Sunday, with up to around 1
inch in the highest peaks of the central mountains today, as
well.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 143 PM MDT Sat Oct 11 2025

We get a very short break Monday before more
precipitation arrives in eastern Idaho.  Split flow is still the MO
with the low dropping into California Tuesday. This keeps us in
warmer southerly flow ahead of that actual low crossing the state.
We will see afternoon temperatures returning into the 60s for
several folks by Tuesday. The higher end of the temperature range
Tuesday puts our typical warmer spots, especially with downslope
enhancing things, pushing 65-70. That is short lived as we see the
low swinging northeast across the Northern Rockies and Great Basin.
Two things are certain at the moment: we will see more rain and
snow, and it will get colder again. How cold and the track of the
low are NOT that certain at the moment. The GFS swings the storm
through a bit quicker vs the ECMWF. The GFS also tracks the low over
Utah and Wyoming more than the ECMWF, which brings it right over the
state. The GFS would actually pull in some slightly colder air vs
the ECMWF initially, and that is reflected in the Blend of Models in
terms of temperatures and snow levels Wednesday and Thursday. The
official Blend forecast for temperatures for Wednesday has low to
mid 50s, and mid 40s to around 50 Thursday. The colder end of
ranges has mid to upper 40s and low to mid 40s on those respective
days. Snow levels at night on the low end of ranges drops to within
500 of the lowest valley floors if not down to them. Meanwhile, the
official snow level forecast is 1000-1500ft HIGHER. Looking at some
VERY EARLY numbers for Wednesday and Thursday, the potential for
over 0.50" of moisture across lower elevations is 15-35% (outside of
locations east of I-15). For highest elevations across the
Sawtooths, eastern and southeast highlands...the chance for seeing
more than 1" sits at 25-35%.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1120 AM MDT Sat Oct 11 2025

Widespread showers will persist into this evening, although this
will end west to east as the main area of precipitation shifts
into Wyoming overnight. We should see occasional thunderstorms
popping up especially east of I-15. To account for thunder, we
have been using a mix of PROB30 and VCTS (depending on chance of
lightning) and will into tonight. Gusts of 35kts are expected
with stronger storms. For tonight and Sunday morning, we will
see lower clouds remaining place along with elevated winds
(outside of SUN). We kept VCSH in for IDA and DIJ past this
evening, with DIJ lasting past sunrise. Throughout this period,
ceilings and visibility will have a wide range...which we`ve
already seen with things bouncing between VFR and IFR.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 303 AM MDT Sat Oct 11 2025

Will have showers and isolated thunderstorms today with
temperatures cooling through the day. Snow levels will drop to 5
to 6 thousand feet overnight and Sunday. Heaviest rain will be
in zones 411, 410 and 413. Close to a 100 percent chance of
wetting rains. Lesser amounts in zones 475, 476 and 422 but
still likely wetting rains. Will begin to dry a Sunday with
Monday likely the driest day of the next week.

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cropp
LONG TERM...Keyes
AVIATION...Keyes
FIRE WEATHER...GK