


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID
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843 FXUS65 KPIH 111946 AFDPIH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pocatello ID 146 PM MDT Sat Oct 11 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers and isolated thunderstorms today and much colder. Snow levels dropping to 5 to 6 thousand feet tonight. - 1-4" snowfall anticipated above 6500 ft including passes Saturday night into Sunday. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 143 PM MDT Sat Oct 11 2025 Upper trough and associated cold front are swinging through the region today, bringing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms, mountain snow, breezy winds, and much cooler temperatures. Temperatures are dropping behind the front, already running more than 20 degrees below yesterday`s temperatures. Overnight lows will remain mild due to cloud cover, with low to mid-30s in the valleys and 20s in the mountains. Expect a little more sun on Sunday, but daytime temperatures will run up to 15 degrees below normal still with widespread 40s to low 50s and 30s in the higher terrain. HREF probability of thunder ranges 20 to 80 percent across the east and southeast highlands this afternoon, increasing further east and south along our borders with UT and WY. Thunderstorms will be capable of gusts 30 to 40 mph. Outside of storms, winds will generally gust 20 to 30 mph. Snow levels will drop below 6,000 feet behind the front, allowing 1"-4" of snow to accumulate above 6,500 feet elevation in the eastern highlands late tonight into early Sunday, with up to around 1 inch in the highest peaks of the central mountains today, as well. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 143 PM MDT Sat Oct 11 2025 We get a very short break Monday before more precipitation arrives in eastern Idaho. Split flow is still the MO with the low dropping into California Tuesday. This keeps us in warmer southerly flow ahead of that actual low crossing the state. We will see afternoon temperatures returning into the 60s for several folks by Tuesday. The higher end of the temperature range Tuesday puts our typical warmer spots, especially with downslope enhancing things, pushing 65-70. That is short lived as we see the low swinging northeast across the Northern Rockies and Great Basin. Two things are certain at the moment: we will see more rain and snow, and it will get colder again. How cold and the track of the low are NOT that certain at the moment. The GFS swings the storm through a bit quicker vs the ECMWF. The GFS also tracks the low over Utah and Wyoming more than the ECMWF, which brings it right over the state. The GFS would actually pull in some slightly colder air vs the ECMWF initially, and that is reflected in the Blend of Models in terms of temperatures and snow levels Wednesday and Thursday. The official Blend forecast for temperatures for Wednesday has low to mid 50s, and mid 40s to around 50 Thursday. The colder end of ranges has mid to upper 40s and low to mid 40s on those respective days. Snow levels at night on the low end of ranges drops to within 500 of the lowest valley floors if not down to them. Meanwhile, the official snow level forecast is 1000-1500ft HIGHER. Looking at some VERY EARLY numbers for Wednesday and Thursday, the potential for over 0.50" of moisture across lower elevations is 15-35% (outside of locations east of I-15). For highest elevations across the Sawtooths, eastern and southeast highlands...the chance for seeing more than 1" sits at 25-35%. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1120 AM MDT Sat Oct 11 2025 Widespread showers will persist into this evening, although this will end west to east as the main area of precipitation shifts into Wyoming overnight. We should see occasional thunderstorms popping up especially east of I-15. To account for thunder, we have been using a mix of PROB30 and VCTS (depending on chance of lightning) and will into tonight. Gusts of 35kts are expected with stronger storms. For tonight and Sunday morning, we will see lower clouds remaining place along with elevated winds (outside of SUN). We kept VCSH in for IDA and DIJ past this evening, with DIJ lasting past sunrise. Throughout this period, ceilings and visibility will have a wide range...which we`ve already seen with things bouncing between VFR and IFR. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 303 AM MDT Sat Oct 11 2025 Will have showers and isolated thunderstorms today with temperatures cooling through the day. Snow levels will drop to 5 to 6 thousand feet overnight and Sunday. Heaviest rain will be in zones 411, 410 and 413. Close to a 100 percent chance of wetting rains. Lesser amounts in zones 475, 476 and 422 but still likely wetting rains. Will begin to dry a Sunday with Monday likely the driest day of the next week. && .PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Cropp LONG TERM...Keyes AVIATION...Keyes FIRE WEATHER...GK