Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID
879 FXUS65 KPIH 292001 AFDPIH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pocatello ID 201 PM MDT Sun Sep 29 2024 .DISCUSSION... As expected, it`s been a warm and breezy day across eastern Idaho. Sustained winds in the 15-25 range continue with gusts upwards of 40 in spots. These conditions will support critical fire weather concerns (more on that below). The winds are due to an upper level trough sweeping north of the area across Canada which has tightened the pressure gradient over the region. The trough will push a dry cold front through the region later this evening which will cool things off for the overnight and more so during the day tomorrow. Monday high temps will be limited to the 60s across our lower elevations, 50s in the mountains despite the ample sunshine. Tuesday AM looks to be the coldest morning with a Frost Advisory appearing increasingly likely for portions of the agricultural zones. A light freeze is possible in a few spots as well but this doesn`t look like an overly widespread occurrence based on the current forecast. Temperatures will begin to rebound on Tuesday, returning closer to normal, and then should climb above normal once again for the remainder of the forecast period under weak upper-level ridging. As has been the trend for awhile, no precipitation is expected through next weekend, and likely beyond that. McKaughan && .AVIATION... A dry, cold front will move through the area tonight. Look for VFR conditions with just FEW to SCT mid and high level clouds. Expect moderate winds with gusts of 20 to 30 kts for all TAF sites. Winds will stay elevated overnight and not drop off and become northerly until early tomorrow morning. Wyatt && .FIRE WEATHER... Expect another warm day today, well above normal, ahead of a cold front that will move through the area tonight. Do expect very dry air, mostly below 20% relative humidity, this afternoon still. Winds will be moderate to strong as well today into the evening. Expect wind gusts up to 20 to 25 mph for our southern areas and 30 to 45 mph for the Snake Plain and areas northward. A Red flag continues for zone 410 across the Snake Plain for gusty winds and low relative humidity. Red flag "weather" conditions will be met for zones 475 and 476 too this afternoon, but fuels are not critical. Winds become overall light from the north tomorrow after the cold front passage. Daytime temperatures will drop 15 to 20 degrees Monday over today as well. Expect dry conditions to continue. Model do continue to show our area on the edge of high pressure the rest of the week with a temperatures rising back to the 70s and 80s for lower elevations the rest of the week. Models continue to show a weak, dry wave come through Wednesday and another bigger trough Friday into Saturday. However, both systems look weaker than previous models runs. Wyatt && .PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for IDZ410. && $$