286
FXUS65 KPIH 131138
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
538 AM MDT Mon Oct 13 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Frost Advisories and Freeze Warnings continue this morning.

- Warmer this afternoon with showers returning tonight/Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 304 AM MDT Mon Oct 13 2025

Frost Advisories and Freeze Warnings remain in effect this
morning. As the day progresses, a low pressure system will track
southward along the Pacific Coast, turning our wind flow
southerly across Idaho and supporting a largely warmer and drier
day today. Showers may start to return tonight as the deep
southerly flow taps some of the tropical remnants currently
impacting the Desert Southwest.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 110 PM MDT Sun Oct 12 2025

Rain, snow and thunderstorms return starting Tuesday and last
through the end of the workweek. We remain in strong southerly
flow ahead of the low on Tuesday. We will likely reach low to
mid 60s in warmer spots, especially where we can get downslope
winds to aid with any warming and counter increasing
clouds/precipitation. The best days for precipitation will be
Wednesday and Thursday, although Tuesday afternoon and evening
are starting to look pretty wet across our area. As we`ve done
the past couple of days, let`s dig into some of the "what if
forecasts" vs the official Blend of Models forecast. Highs both
of those days with our official forecast will be in the mid 40s
to low 50s down low. The lower end of the Blend forecasts has
highs never getting out of the 40s. In terms of lows both days,
the official forecasts is dropping down into the 30s with many
spots close enough to 32 for a least a mix of rain and snow for
lowest valley spots. The colder end of the Blend of Models would
definitely have snow falling (maybe not accumulating) at all
elevations in eastern Idaho. If we can get the colder scenario
that is still depicted in the ensembles (which help feed the
Blend "what if forecasts"), it could be the first snowflakes of
the season for some of our more populated cities. Precipitation
amounts this early on show 0.30-0.80" over 72 hours for lower
elevations, with a 10-40% chance of exceeding that (location
dependent). For the mountains, the official forecast right now
puts us at 1.0-1.5" for most ranges, with around 2" for the Big
Holes and Tetons. There is a less than 10% chance we exceed 2"
there at the moment. We should get another break on Saturday,
with the chance of precipitation back sometime early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 538 AM MDT Mon Oct 13 2025

Mid- to high-level clouds are starting to intrude on KPIH and
KIDA from the west, which will further help end the low-end
concern for low stratus this morning. All mention has been
removed in the 12z TAF package. Still expecting mid- to high-
level clouds to gradually increase today and tonight ahead of
our next system, with VCSH arriving at KSUN this evening and
then increasing to -SHRA overnight. At least VCSH will become
likely at other terminals as well by Tuesday, with precip
chances increasing/cigs lowering further as time goes on
Tuesday into Wednesday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 304 AM MDT Mon Oct 13 2025

Will see mainly dry conditions today as flow aloft turns
southerly with significant warming with high temperatures 10 to
15 degrees warmer compared to Sunday. Rain showers will return
Monday night with more significant precipitation on Wednesday
and Thursday with snow levels in the 7 to 8 thousand foot range.
But will have widespread wetting rains once again everywhere
and will see significant cooling again Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Frost Advisory until 10 AM MDT this morning for IDZ051-055.
Freeze Warning until 10 AM MDT this morning for IDZ052>054.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM...Keyes
AVIATION...01
FIRE WEATHER...GK