647
FXUS65 KPIH 302027
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
227 PM MDT Mon Jun 30 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above normal temperatures will continue through Thursday with
  Tuesday the hottest day, highs will reach the upper 80s to
  upper 90s in the valleys.

- Daily shower and thunderstorm chances return Tuesday as
  monsoonal moisture lifts north into southeast Idaho.
  Independence Day may have the most widespread coverage.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 146 PM MDT Mon Jun 30 2025

Will start to see an increase in moisture spreading northeast
into Idaho as upper level ridge axis moves east and southerly
flow aloft allows an increase in moisture. Have isolated
thunderstorms in the central mountains and upper snake highlands
near the Montana border.  Very hot conditions are expected
Tuesday with lows tonight in the 40s and 50s mountains and 50s
to lower 60s valleys. Highs Tuesday will be in the mid to upper
90s in valleys and 80s mountains. Lows Tuesday night mainly 50s
and 60s. No wind impacts expected in the short term period.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 146 PM MDT Mon Jun 30 2025

Expect an active convective period in the long term with as
least a slight chance of thunderstorms daily through Saturday.
Friday the 4th looks to be the day with the most widespread
activity across the region with scattered coverage basically
everywhere. Highs Wednesday will be in the 80s mountains and 90s
valleys once again but about 2 to 4 degrees cooler than Tuesday.
Highs Thursday drop to the 70s mountains and 80s valleys with
70s and 80s again on Friday which will be the coolest day of the
long term period. Low elevations high temperatures by Sunday and
especially Monday will be back into the 90s. Convective activity
will also be minimal Sunday and Monday with only a slight chance
near the Montana border. Friday will also be the only breezy day
with sustained winds of 10 to 20 mph expected in the afternoon
in the Snake River Plain.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1136 AM MDT Mon Jun 30 2025

VFR conditions continue with generally light winds today. A weak
feature rotating north into East Idaho may be just enough to produce
a few high-based thunderstorms along the UT border. A few of the
high-res model solutions generate convective activity potentially
impacting BYI late this afternoon and early evening. Confidence is
low, but just high enough to add a VCTS for 22z-02Z. Better chances
exist for tomorrow afternoon/evening after 18Z, so potential
inclusion for more sites in the 00Z issuance today.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 146 PM MDT Mon Jun 30 2025

Very warm temperatures continue. Remnants of a southwest monsoonal
surge shift north into East Idaho this week. There may be enough for
a very isolated dry thunderstorm or two across the Southern Sawtooth
early this evening, but confidence is low. Better moisture pushes
north across all East Idaho fire districts for Tuesday through the
rest of the week. Most thunderstorms will be dry though a few storms
will have the capability of producing greater precipitation amounts,
especially as the week progresses. Afternoon humidities today and
Tuesday will generally be in the teens, recovering slightly above
critical thresholds for the remainder of the week with the moisture
surge. Winds are expected to remain below critical thresholds.

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GK
LONG TERM...GK
AVIATION...DMH
FIRE WEATHER...DMH