879
FXUS65 KPIH 041114
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
514 AM MDT Sun Oct 4 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Weak Precipitation Chances Monday: A weak feature may bring
  isolated thunderstorms with very little precipitation to some
  higher elevation areas Monday.

- Unseasonable Late-Week Warmth: An amplifying Great Basin ridge
  will boost lower-elevation temperatures into the upper 70s and
  lower to mid 80s through the weekend. Some may see near record
  or record highs.

- Dry And Warm Through Friday: High confidence exists for
  above- normal temperatures and suppressed precipitation
  extending through the first full week of October.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 145 AM MDT Sun Oct 4 2026

High pressure will remain in control of our weather pattern the rest
of the weekend and most of next week, meaning a continuation of warm
and mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will continue to run above
climatological norms with peak warmth occurring either today or
Monday as the ridge amplifies over the region. Daytime temperatures
during this timeframe will run around 10 to 15 degrees above normal
with valley locations warming into the low to mid-80s. High
resolution models indicate a shortwave feature working through
Monday bringing with it isolated convection and very slight chances
of precipitation. Otherwise, our next chance of precipitation looks
to be next Saturday when the next trough works through. National
Blend temperatures return to climatological norms next Saturday and
drop more than 10 degrees below normal on Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 513 AM MDT Sun Oct 4 2026

VFR conditions forecast under high pressure. Mostly clear skies
with the exception of FEW high clouds during the afternoon.
Outside of winds to around 12 kts at KSUN, winds will remain
light elsewhere.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 145 AM MDT Sun Oct 4 2026

High pressure will remain in control of our weather pattern the rest
of the weekend and most of next week, meaning a continuation of warm
and mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will continue to run above
climatological norms with peak warmth occurring either today or
Monday as the ridge amplifies over the region. Daytime temperatures
during this timeframe will run around 10 to 15 degrees above normal
with valley locations warming into the low to mid-80s. Minimum
humidity is forecast to drop below 15 percent in localized areas
well into next week with widespread 15 to 20 percent min RH values
today. Winds will generally remain light outside of occasional
breezy afternoon wind gusts. High resolution models indicate a
shortwave feature working through Monday bringing with it isolated
convection and very slight chances of precipitation. Otherwise, our
next chance of precipitation looks to be next Saturday when the next
trough works through. National Blend temperatures return to
climatological norms next Saturday and drop more than 10 degrees
below normal on Sunday.

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Cropp
AVIATION...Cropp
FIRE WEATHER...Cropp