158
FXUS65 KPIH 120820
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
220 AM MDT Mon May 12 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Lake Wind Advisory for American Falls reservoir today.

- Next round of precipitation arrives late this
  afternoon/evening as a cold front begins to make its way
  through Eastern Idaho.

- Valley rain and mountain snow with much cooler temperatures
for Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 215 AM MDT Mon May 12 2025

We`re in a bit of a lull in the activity early this morning and the
first half of our Monday will be a relatively quiet, dry period
compared to our storms yesterday. Look for temperatures to warm into
the 60s and 70s in our lower elevations with breezy winds
gusting up to 35 mph for much of Eastern Idaho with gusts
closer to 45 mph on the ridge tops in the South Hills. Given
these winds, have issued a Lake Wind Advisory for the American
Falls reservoir from 2 to 9 PM today. Precipitation returns
later this afternoon in the Central Mountains as a cold front
finally makes its way through Eastern Idaho. This is a fairly
strong cold front that will bring snow levels down to 5500 feet
by Tuesday morning in the Central Mountains, so we are expecting
some mountain snow tonight. Most of this will be a couple of
inches above pass level, but this will set the stage for some
snow closer to pass level later this week. Temperatures will
drop significantly behind this cold front with highs on Tuesday
in the 50s. Showers will continue through mid week as an upper
level low passes through our area.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 215 AM MDT Mon May 12 2025

As the day begins Wednesday, an upper low is poised to be centered
over the region making for a rather dreary day across eastern Idaho.
This looks to be the wettest day of the work week with widespread
showers and thunderstorms expected for a good portion of the day
before things slowly improve from west to east across the region as
we head towards daybreak Thursday. Temperatures will also run around
10 degrees below seasonal norms with highs mainly expected in the
40s and 50s across the region. The low will depart the region on
Thursday but the pattern remains unsettled as a weak ridge builds
over the area on Thursday allowing for temps to nudge up 5-7 degrees
but there will still be enough moisture around to support some
orographically enhanced precip across the eastern half of the
forecast area. Friday looks somewhat similar temperature-wise with a
weak shortwave passing north of the region allowing for at least
some low-end PoPs across the region. During the weekend ahead,
models continue to show a more potent upper level low becoming
established over the area bringing another round of more widespread
precipitation and below normal temperatures. Still some
disagreements amongst the guidance so things will still need to be
fine-tuned over the days ahead but either way, it looks continued
cool, cloudy and wet for the weekend ahead and into the start of
next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1022 PM MDT Sun May 11 2025

A few mid to high level clouds will pass through the
area overnight. Winds should go light in most areas as well. Breezy
conditions will return for Monday afternoon. VFR conditions likely
over the next 24 hours.

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AMM
LONG TERM...McKaughan
AVIATION...13