124
FXUS65 KPIH 070815
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
115 AM MST Thu Nov 7 2024

.SHORT TERM...Today and Friday
Not much to talk about weatherwise today and tomorrow as the area
will be under the influence of high pressure. Skies are clear this
morning, and will remain as such throughout the day. Temps in the
teens and 20s this morning will warm into the upper 30s to upper
40s by the afternoon under mostly sunny skies with light winds. H5
heights continue to rise into the day Friday as high pressure
continues to amplify and overnight lows and daytime highs will be
around 5 degrees warmer than their Thursday levels. These values
are still on the cooler side of normal but are at least getting
within a few degrees of climo. McKaughan

.LONG TERM...Saturday through Thursday
Most of Saturday looks quiet, although we will see the leading
edge of some rain and snow sneaking into the central mountains
during the evening. This initial round moves through pretty
quickly on Sunday. Light precipitation is expected, favoring the
Sawtooths and the eastern highlands and Tetons. There is consensus
on this system between all 3 operational models and the cluster
forecasts. The next storm will start impacting us Monday and
continue through at least Tuesday. Around 65- 70% of the cluster
forecasts support the deeper and slower moving GFS idea, while the
rest favor a quicker, shallower low similar to the 12z run of the
ECMWF. Favored again will be the Sawtooths and eastern
highlands/Tetons. We will also potentially see some higher amounts
around Pomerelle and the Bear River Range. The potential is there
to see over 1" of moisture (mix of rain/melted snow)...20-40% for
the Tetons and 25-45% for the Sawtooths and surrounding ranges.
That COULD equate to more than a foot of snow in those areas. We
will likely see these numbers fluctuate until we get to the
weekend and get some of the higher resolution models reflected in
the forecast. Northwest behind this storm will keep some potential
of rain and snow in the forecast through Thursday. Look for
weekend temperatures (and even Monday) to move back to at/just
above average for this part of November. Keyes


&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions expected through the period with high pressure in
control across eastern Idaho. Winds will be very light and
variable everywhere except KSUN where upvalley/downvalley diurnal
winds are expected. Clouds will be very hard to come by for the
next few days. McKaughan


&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$