138
FXUS65 KPIH 062006
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
206 PM MDT Sun Apr 6 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain showers and high mountain snow showers return Monday and Tuesday,
  with increasingly breezy to windy conditions Monday, Tuesday,
  and Wednesday as well.

- Dry and warm ridge returns Wednesday into next weekend, with
  70s returning to the forecast for some areas starting
  Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 206 PM MDT Sun Apr 6 2025

Satellite imagery shows ridge over Intermountain West, with ridge
axis over West Idaho/East Oregon. Generally clear skies prevail over
East Idaho this afternoon. Trough off PacNW coast shows well defined
shortwave axis arriving along the coast. Ridge axis shifts overhead
tonight, then east during the day Monday. Moisture begins spilling
into the central mountains after sunrise Monday, though the better
chances for precipitation arrive during the afternoon. Not confident
about the threat for thunderstorms in the afternoon. Believe that
the best instability remains west of the forecast area during prime
heating, so will leave mention out for now, but would also not be
surprised to see a lightning strike or two this time of year. Breezy
winds develop during the day through the Snake Plain and higher
elevations. Temps warm some 5 degrees above today`s highs on
southerly flow ahead of incoming trough. Showers spread east through
the afternoon and evening coincident with shortwave trough axis, and
recent HRRR runs indicate potential gust potential 35-40 kts, which
does lend SOME credence to thunder potential later in the day. Flow
flattens toward zonal during the night, shifting any shower focus to
higher elevations generally favored in orographic westerly flow,
mainly central mountains and eastern highlands.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 206 PM MDT Sun Apr 6 2025

A tight pressure gradient looks to be in place across the area on
Tuesday with a trough to our north pushing slowly more poleward. Wind
Advisories look very likely across the Arco Desert and potentially
into the Snake Plain as all of eastern Idaho looks to be on the
breezier side. Precipitation will be focused mainly across the
higher terrain of the central mountains and eastern highlands and
this precip will push north along with the trough into the evening
hours and into the early part of the day Wednesday. This should
leave much of the area dry as we get into Wednesday but the pressure
gradient will remain tight with breezy to windy conditions
continuing as high pressure builds over the area throughout the day.
Temps Tue and Wed will run around seasonal levels just a touch above
seasonal norms but these will become well above normal, by 10 to 15
degrees, as we get into Thursday and Friday with valley temperatures
likely to climb into the 70s for daytime highs under mostly clear
skies. The pattern changes once again as we get into the weekend
with models trending towards another trough moving into the Pacific
NW. There remains a bit of disagreement as to timing, placement and
depth of the aforementioned trough which will ultimately have a huge
impact on the forecast. For now, ran with NBM given all the
uncertainty but there is certainly much that remains up in the air
with the forecast as we get into next weekend. Temps could be much
colder based on some model solutions but it`s just too early at this
point. Stay tuned.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1145 AM MDT Sun Apr 6 2025

VFR conditions to prevail throughout the day today as high pressure
remains in control with mainly clear skies and light winds. Clouds
will begin to increase from west to east after daybreak tomorrow as
a trough moves into the region. Precip will likely reaching the
vicinity of KSUN sometime in the late morning/early afternoon where
VCSH has been introduced and will likely eventually be needed just
beyond the current 18Z period. Expect increasing winds, clouds and
precip chances throughout eastern Idaho late tomorrow afternoon and
evening.

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DMH
LONG TERM...DMH
AVIATION...McKaughan