881
FXUS65 KPIH 020528
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
1128 PM MDT Tue Jul 1 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and thunderstorms every day through Saturday with July
  4th likely the most widespread coverage as an upper level wave
  pushes east.

- Cooler temperatures beginning Thursday with highs only in the
  70s and 80s Thursday through Saturday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1243 PM MDT Tue Jul 1 2025

Main impact in the short term period will be isolated to widely
scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms both today as well
as Wednesday. Main area will be central mountains this afternoon
and evening but all locations could see isolated cells develop.
Lows tonight will be in the 50s and 60s and highs Wednesday 80s
mountains and low to mid 90s valleys.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1243 PM MDT Tue Jul 1 2025

Expect extremely active convective activity both Thursday and
Friday with scattered thunderstorms Thursday and scattered to
widespread on Friday as an upper level wave pushes east through
Idaho. Both days expected to be much cooler with highs in the
70s and 80s only with the expected cloud cover and
precipitation. Will have 10 to 15 mph sustained winds up the
Snake River Plain both days. So we are expecting 4th of July
weather impacts for outdoor activities during the day into the
evening. Will start to see some drying Saturday with still
isolated to scattered thunderstorms in the central and eastern
mountains. Sunday through Tuesday expected to be dry with hot
conditions returning with highs back into the 90s lower
elevations and 80s mountains.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1128 PM MDT Tue Jul 1 2025

Hard to rule out virga or a couple stray showers overnight, but
CAMs offer little confidence on when/where/if, thus have left TAFs
dry after 08z/2am. DCAPE and dry low-levels could continue to
favor a few stronger wind gusts over 25 MPH with any virga or
shower. Next round of storms remains on tap starting 20-21z/2-3pm
tomorrow afternoon w/ gusty winds and outflows again the focus.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1243 PM MDT Tue Jul 1 2025

Today still holds as being the warmest and driest day of the week.
Moisture has already begun to shift into East Idaho, and isolated
thunderstorms are forecast mainly across higher elevations. Gusty
winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible. A repeat is forecast
through the remainder of the week, albeit slightly cooler and
slightly more humid with a slight increase in thunderstorm coverage
each day. Friday looks to the coolest and most humid with scattered
thunderstorms across all districts. Starting today most
thunderstorms are expected to be dry, though one or two may be able
to produce a wetting rain. By Friday, most thunderstorms should be
able to produce a wetting rain. The bulk of the moisture shifts east
for the weekend, allowing for a warming trend to return to East
Idaho. Humidities should return toward more seasonable levels, but
isolated thunderstorms may continue across higher terrain zones
through Sunday.

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GK
LONG TERM...GK
AVIATION...01
FIRE WEATHER...DMH