Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID
185 FXUS65 KPIH 060824 AFDPIH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pocatello ID 224 AM MDT Sun Oct 6 2024 .SHORT TERM...Today through Monday Night. Hopefully you enjoyed the brief cool down yesterday, because as high pressure builds back in over the area we will warm up once again. Highs today push back into the upper 70s for the eastern Magic Valley and Snake Plain, running about 10 degrees above our averages for this time of the year. Patchy smoke and haze will continue around the area due to the recent increase in fire activity, though impacts are not expected to be widespread as most of the smoke remains elevated higher up in the atmosphere. That said, expect some lingering air quality issues around our active fires, especially up near the Salmon area. The warm weather continues into the week ahead with highs warming another couple of degrees for Monday afternoon. A weak disturbance moving through central California and into Nevada will bring a few more clouds into the area for Monday afternoon and bring a less than 20 percent chance of a stray shower or storm to the South Hills/southeastern Highlands late Monday into Tuesday. However, with so much dry air at the surface to overcome, it seems unlikely for us to see any rain. AMM .LONG TERM...Tuesday through Next Saturday. Temperatures continue to warm through mid week with highs for more of us reaching back into the low 80s on Tuesday and Wednesday. In fact, it looks like Wednesday will be the warmest day of the week. Our highs drop a couple of degrees on Thursday ahead of troughing moving into the West coast for the second half of the week. The GFS and ECMWF disagree on where exactly this troughing is coming from and as a result the ECMWF is drier than the GFS, but both models agree on at least a bit of a cool down into the 70s and even some 60s for highs by next weekend. We will have to watch how these models evolve over the next week, but it could provide us with the next best chance for some precipitation, particularly in the higher elevations. AMM && .AVIATION...12Z Sunday to 12Z Monday. High pressure building in over the area means light winds, clear skies, and VFR conditions will continue throughout Sunday and into Monday. A weak disturbance lifting north out of Nevada on Monday will just bring an increase in some mid-level clouds in the second half of the day. AMM && .FIRE WEATHER...Sat afternoon humidity was much lower than forecast, but it appears as though guidance has caught up. There is an increase in humidity, but not as much as the forecast for this day 24 hours ago. And the afternoon humidity is down for subsequent days as well. This changes on Tue evening as a threat of moisture from the south moves in; it may even trigger showers at a minimum for late Tue afternoon/Tue evening. The extent of the push northward of this feature is also filled with considerable uncertainty. Clouds will offset the advection of warmer air from the south, and now it appears that afternoon highs will continue a trend to warm until a more significant low approaches on Thu. This low also has much uncertainty as far as moisture goes this far out, and may bring very little, or quite a bit, depending on model and ensemble. Wind continues to weaken compared to yesterday, which may lead to some stagnation and more smoke and air quality issues. Messick && .PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$