715
FXUS65 KPIH 101132
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
532 AM MDT Fri Oct 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Continued warm today with daytime highs 5 to 10 degrees above
  normal.

- Precipitation and colder temperatures return this weekend and
  into early next week!

- 1-3" snowfall anticipated above 6500 ft including passes
  Saturday night into Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 311 AM MDT Fri Oct 10 2025

Showers are beginning to work into southeast Idaho this morning
with periods of them through this afternoon. Will also see a
chance of thunderstorms this afternoon as well. Southerly winds
will increase to 10 to 15 mph with gusts in the 20 to 30 mph
range this afternoon. The chances of rain will increase tonight
into Saturday in alignment with the cold frontal passage.
Remaining very warm today with highs in the 60s and 70s. It will
be cooler than Thursday but still well above normal. Will see a
significant cool down Saturday with significant clouds and
precipitation and highs will only be in the 50s and 60s. It will
remain breezy Saturday with 10 to 20 mph winds and gusts 20 to
30 mph. Snow levels will drop to 5500 to 6500 feet Saturday
night as much colder air moves in. Could see up to an inch of
snow in the Island Park and Stanley areas Saturday night. There
is a 50 percent chance of greater than 0.25 inches of liquid
precipiation in the Snake River Plain through Saturday night
Lows will drop to the 20s mountains and 30s valleys by Sunday
morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 114 PM MDT Thu Oct 9 2025

Weekend continues to look unsettled and cool, with widespread
showers mainly Saturday and Saturday night. 24-hr liquid
precipitation amounts generally highest in the southern and
eastern highlands (0.50-1.00"), and lowest across portions of
the central mountains (0.25-0.50"). Lower end estimates are dry
especially for the Snake Plain and west and still approach 0.50"
liquid in spots across the south and east, but do not believe
this is a realistic scenario. High end estimates approach the
precipitation amounts seen last weekend, well over 1.00" liquid
in the south and east. Probably of greater interest this time of
year, especially to hunters, is expected snowfall as
temperatures begin to drop behind the cold front Saturday. We
currently are not anticipating issuance of any winter-related
headlines, but snow levels drop to 5500-6500 ft by Sunday
morning. NBM deterministic overnight lows are running at the top
end of the probabilistic scale, so have lowered them closer to
the 50th percentile in line with the average snow levels. This
does bring snow to mid slope or below most areas, and higher
elevation locations and passes are likely to see 1-3" snow
accumulation as early as Saturday evening. Even the low-end
probabilistic estimates put light accumulations at pass level
during this period. This does have implications for travelers
Saturday night. Probabilities support a 20-40% chance of amounts
greater than 3" above 6500ft elevation, and a 10-20% chance of
exceeding 3" at Galena, Targhee and Raynolds passes.

Precipitation begins to decrease during the day Sunday as this
shortwave features shifts east of the region, leaving East Idaho
within the base of trough across the PacNW. After weekend
daytime highs in the 40s/lower 50s, the coldest temperatures of
the week appear to be Sunday night/Monday morning. Another
Freeze headline may be necessary to round out the end of the
growing season, which ends October 15 for East Idaho. Southerly
flow redevelops across the region and the trough amplifies along
the coast. Both GFS and ECMWF drop the trough into a closed low
off the California coast trough the remainder of the week.
There is still enough uncertainty to keep East Idaho within the
influence of the trough, keeping at least isolated showers going
through the week. Temperatures moderate slightly, but drop
toward the end of the week back into the lower 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 528 AM MDT Fri Oct 10 2025

Expect continued VFR conditions with mainly dry conditions as
well after 12Z at the TAF sites. Went with some vicinity showers
this afternoon and some predominant showers after 03Z tonight at
most sites. There is a possibility of thunderstorms but only put
vicinity at SUN after 21Z today. Expect 210 knot wind gusts this
afternoon at IDA and PIH after 18Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 311 AM MDT Fri Oct 10 2025

Will see showers and isolated thunderstorms today with showers
continuing tonight through Saturday night with wetting rains
especially in southern and eastern areas. Much less in Central
Idaho regions. Will remain mild today with highs in the 60s and
70s. Will turn much colder tonight and Saturday with below
normal temperatures by Sunday. Snow levels will drop to 5500
feet and expect light accumulations above those levels through
the weekend. Will see a chance of showers continuing off and on
through the middle of next week. Much cooler temperatures will
move in Saturday with Sunday the coldest day of the week. Will
see slight warming Monday but overall temperatures near or
slightly below normal through next week.

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GK
LONG TERM...DMH
AVIATION...GK
FIRE WEATHER...GK