995
FXUS65 KPIH 032326
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
526 PM MDT Thu Apr 3 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cold with continued mountain snow showers today with isolated
  showers in valleys. Lingering showers in eastern highlands
  Friday.

- Dry weekend as temperatures warm.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 142 PM MDT Thu Apr 3 2025

Deep trough over the Intermountain West in place but slowly moving
east per satellite imagery. Shortwave dropping through Idaho
Panhandle/Western Montana this afternoon combining with cold pool
over East Idaho to help produce showers across the region. Valley
temperatures are warm enough to be a mix of rain/snow, with snow
levels over mid and upper elevations. NBM produced just enough
Thunder to keep isolated mention across portions of the Central
Mountains, closest to the shortwave axis. Would not be surprised to
see a lightning strike anywhere else, but not enough confidence to
add it. HRRR produces some gusts out of the showers this afternoon,
to the tune of about 25-30mph, which would not be out of the realm
of possibility for early spring. Most of the activity should
decrease with loss of daytime heating, but shortwave trough takes
it`s time working through the region overnight, so will likely still
see isolated showers across the northeast corner. Northerly gradient
pushes down the Snake Plain overnight, and the recent HRRR runs are
trying to develop a weak pseudo-convergent band down through the
Lower Snake Plain and Eastern Magic Valley through the late night,
possible into the early morning hours. The NAM holds on to a thin
band of moisture that matches the timing, but does not quite get as
aggressive as the HRRR. If this band would develop, it could be able
to produce a quick skiff of snow overnight with temperatures falling
below freezing.

Northerly surface gradient continues through Friday, and will be
breezy especially across the northern portions of the Snake Plain.
Shower development will be possible across the Bear Lake region, in
vicinity of the departing low. Otherwise much drier conditions will
set in across the region, with temperatures creeping slightly
upwards towards more seasonable readings for this time of year.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 142 PM MDT Thu Apr 3 2025

Dry and warmer conditions are expected over the weekend.
Temperatures by Sunday will be back into the 60s at lower
elevations. The next storm will impact us Monday and Tuesday for
the most part, with some lingering showers on Wednesday. With
temperatures remaining on the warm side, any snowfall will be
limited to really high elevations. The current forecasts really
don`t have a ton moisture falling either. The pattern favors the
Sawtooths (up 0.50") and Tetons (up to 0.30"). This is over
48-60 hour period. It will also be breezy but nothing too strong
at the moment. High pressure returns for the end of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 525 PM MDT Thu Apr 3 2025

Widespread rain and snow showers this afternoon will gradually
diminish this evening. Have either VCSH or -SHRA in the TAF at all
sites until about 03-05Z Friday. Even after showers decrease, cloud
cover continues with the best potential for MVFR CIGs from 10Z to
15Z Friday morning from IDA to PIH to BYI, and DIJ may even try to
get in on the MVFR fun. It`s about a 10 to 20 percent chance of
occurrence at IDA, BYI, and DIJ, with the NBM showing about a 20 to
30 percent chance at PIH. VFR conditions are expected by 18-19Z at
all sites. The one caveat to that is at DIJ where VCSH returns to
the forecast in the afternoon as we dry out at other sites. If a
shower passes directly over DIJ, look for at least MVFR CIGs/VIS for
a bit. Winds will pick up a bit at IDA and PIH in the afternoon,
too, with gusts around 15 to 20 kts.

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DMH
LONG TERM...Keyes
AVIATION...AMM