162
FXUS61 KPHI 060134
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
934 PM EDT Sat Oct 5 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Surface high pressure continues to influence the region through
Sunday. A cold front approaches Sunday night looking to cross
through Monday morning. Surface high pressure builds in
thereafter, and holds influence over the region into the start
of next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Forecast running on track. No significant changes will be made
to the database other than to adjust hourly grids based on the
latest surface obs.

Otherwise, high pressure centered over the eastern Great Lakes
builds east tonight before moving offshore on Sunday.

Excellent radiational cooling conditions on tap for tonight due
to clear skies and light winds. Lows tonight will mostly be in
the 40s, though in the low 50s in and around Philadelphia, as
well as Delmarva and slightly warmer along the coasts.

Due to moisture pooling with slightly higher dew points over
Delmarva and the Pine Barrens of southeast New Jersey, patchy
fog may develop after midnight. Any fog will lift and dissipate
shortly after sunrise Sunday morning.

Mostly sunny and mild with highs in the mid 70s or so on
Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A cold front approaches Sunday night and looks to cross through
our region Monday morning. Thereafter, surface high pressure to
our west begins to build in. The region looks to be influenced
by this surface high pressure through the rest of the term.

The forecast remains fairly straightforward. Scattered to
widespread shower activity expected during the Sunday night
period, moving generally eastward with time ahead of the front.
Likely PoPs included for Philadelphia with mainly likely and
categorical PoPs included for areas northwards; mainly chance
PoPs for areas southwards. Some slight chance PoPs included for
the coast into the start of the Monday period as the front
pushes offshore. Otherwise, no PoPs included with the forecast
for the Monday period onwards.

Nothing of significance to note regarding the anticipated
shower activity. Front is forecast to come in too late to tap
into any severe potential. A couple rumbles of thunder may occur
but is not expected to be widespread with little instability
and timing of frontal passage.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The region looks to be influenced by surface high pressure
through the duration of the long term. Surface high pressure
centered to our west Tuesday night will gradually move eastward
with time. Meanwhile, another bubble of high pressure centered
over the Great Lakes region Wednesday night/Thursday slowly
slides south/southeastwards with time for reinforcement.
Ultimately, surface high pressure continues to influence the
region while looking to be centered in the vicinity of the Ohio
River Valley for Thursday, Friday, and Saturday.

With surface high pressure in control, we are looking at a dry
forecast through the long term. Though some shortwave energy
could propagate through Tuesday night/Wednesday, some increase
in cloud cover will likely be all that occurs. Dry air advection
and prevailing NW flow will continue through much of the term.
It will certainly feel like autumn with low humidity and
temperatures forecast to be around average to slightly below
average.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Tonight...Overall, VFR. However, patchy fog may reduce VSBYs to
at least MVFR at KMIV/KACY. Will TEMPO 5SM at those terminals
with the 00Z TAFs. LGT/VRB to calm winds. Moderate confidence.

Sunday...Any fog lifts and dissipates shortly after 12Z.
Otherwise, VFR. LGT/VRB winds become S 5 to 10 kt after 15Z.
High confidence.

Outlook...

Sunday night...Sub-VFR conditions likely with showers. Shower
activity generally less prevalent for sites southwards of KPHL.

Monday through Thursday...VFR. No significant weather
anticipated.

&&

.MARINE...
Conditions are expected to remain below Small Craft Advisory
thresholds though tonight. North to NE winds 10-15 knots this
afternoon diminishing to 5-10 knots tonight. Seas 3-4 feet.

A Small Craft Advisory may be necessary by late Sunday with
seas building to near 5 ft. Winds becoming easterly 5-10 kts
then southerly 10-15 kts.

Outlook...

Sunday night through Monday night...SCA conditions anticipated,
seas 5-7 feet. Chance showers late Sunday night into Monday
morning. Thereafter, fair weather.

Tuesday through Thursday...No marine headlines anticipated.
Fair weather.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM Sunday to 8 AM EDT Tuesday for
     ANZ450.
     Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM Sunday to 8 AM EDT Tuesday for
     ANZ451>455.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Wunderlin
NEAR TERM...Fitzsimmons/MPS/RCM
SHORT TERM...Wunderlin
LONG TERM...Wunderlin
AVIATION...Fitzsimmons/MPS/Wunderlin
MARINE...Fitzsimmons/RCM/Wunderlin