983
FXUS61 KPHI 141733
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
133 PM EDT Tue Oct 14 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
The coastal low that has been bringing impacts to the region
will continue to move eastward today. A cold front will move
through the area Wednesday, with strong high pressure building
in to close out the week. A low pressure system may approach
from the west late this weekend into early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
During the day today, most of the precip is located closer to
the coastal areas as the low continues to depart. Some guidance
shows wrap around moisture continuing to lead to pockets of
drizzle or light rain across parts of the area but the best
potential for this looks to remain near the coast. What remains
stubborn through today is the cloud cover. We continue to stay
mostly cloudy during the day before seeing a decrease in the
clouds into tonight from west to east. Our winds stay breezy
with gusts around 20 mph inland and 25-30 mph near the coast.
Highs today are in the 60s.

For tonight, some drier air moves in from the west which allows
the cloud cover to decrease and the drying trend continues
across the area. Winds are still elevated a bit into tonight
with inland gusts 15-20 mph and coastal areas 20-30 mph. Lows
overnight are in the upper 40s to mid 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Sunshine will mix with some clouds during the day Wednesday as
a cold front drops southward across the area from Canada,
promoting a gusty northwest wind by afternoon. However, no
precipitation is expected. Despite the frontal passage, highs
should be mild, generally in the mid 60s to lows 70s, except 50s
in the Poconos.

Cold advection will persist thru Wednesday night as high
pressure builds in from Canada, resulting in a steady
northwesterly wind. Skies should be mostly clear, and lows will
drop down into the upper 30s and low 40s.

With the high taking its time building into the area, we`ll
keep a northwesterly gradient, so the northwest winds will
remain steady and occasionally gusty on Thursday. Otherwise,
skies will be mostly sunny, but temperatures will only recover
to the upper 50s and lower 60s.

It still appears the gradient will remain tight enough Thursday
night, with the high center still off to the northwest, such
that we`ll mostly avoid a frost/freeze threat in locations where
the growing season continues. The steady breeze will remain,
though a bit weaker than Wednesday night. Lows Thursday night in
the mid 30s to lower 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
High pressure finally builds overhead Friday, allowing winds to
relax more as the cold advection finally dwindles. Another
mostly sunny day should help to bring temps up a little, with
highs in the low to mid 60s, except upper 50s in the Poconos.

The highs sinks to our south on Friday night, with warm
advection beginning aloft as the gradient turns westerly, though
remaining light. Some clouds may filter into the area as well.
Lows Friday night in the 40s.

A weak warm frontal passage on Saturday should bring a bit more
cloud cover, but also notably warmer temperatures. Highs
Saturday in the mid 60s to low 70s.

Warm advection on a southwesterly gradient will continue
Saturday night, but remaining dry with high pressure still in
control as it drifts off the Carolina coast. Lows Saturday night
in the upper 40s to mid 50s.

Warm advection peaks on Sunday just ahead of the next frontal
system approaching from the west. Clouds will be increasing,
along with the risk of showers, but it still should be the
warmest day of the forecast period. Highs Sunday in the low to
mid 70s, except 60s in the Poconos.

Aforementioned front moves through Sunday night, with
widespread showers and maybe even some thunderstorms and locally
heavy rain, depending on how the details set up. Lows Sunday
night in the upper 40s to mid 50s.

High pressure starts building back in Monday, with decreasing
clouds and precip chances. Highs Monday in the 60s, except 50s
in the Poconos.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Through 00Z...MVFR ceilings are to prevail at most terminals
through 22Z before lifting to VFR. MVFR ceilings will likely
linger at KMIV/KACY though. North winds around 8-13 kt with
gusts up to 18-20 kt possible. Moderate-high confidence.

Tonight...Lingering MVFR ceilings at KMIV/KACY early, otherwise
VFR expected for most of the night. North-northwest winds around
5-10 kt. Moderate-high confidence.

Wednesday...VFR with SCT high clouds. Northwest winds around 10
kt occasionally gusting up to 20+ kt. High confidence.

Outlook...

Wednesday night thru Saturday...VFR conditions should prevail.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 12:00 PM...all remaining Gale Warnings have been
downgraded to Small Craft Advisories.

North-northeast winds continue today, but will begin to subside
by the afternoon with winds mainly between 20-25 kt with
occasional gusts up to 30-35 kt. Seas of around 8-12 feet
continue. Periods of light rain, mist and drizzle likely
through today. Winds decrease tonight to 15-20 kt with gusts
around 25 kt. SCAs will be needed for wind and persistent seas
of 6-8 feet.

Outlook...

Small Craft Advisory conditions look likely at times Wednesday
thru Thursday night due to winds and/or waves, at least on the
ocean waters. Delaware Bay will naturally have more sub-advisory
periods.

Sub-SCA conditions should become more widespread Friday and
continue thru Saturday.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Surge values are slowly subsiding as the coastal storm moves
away. However, one final high tide cycle is forecast to reach
widespread minor this afternoon. The Coastal Flood Advisory
remains in effect for the back bays of Ocean, Atlantic, Cape
May, and Sussex Counties, and Kent (DE) for Delaware Bay until
8 PM this evening. Thereafter, winds turning northwest should
allow water levels to subside even more. Some minor flooding
could linger in Ocean and Sussex Counties, but will see how
things trend today before making any additional advisory
extensions.

No tidal flooding is expected for our eastern shore counties
along Chesapeake Bay, or the tidal Delaware River.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NJZ020-
     022>027.
DE...Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for
     DEZ002>004.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for ANZ430-
     431.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ450>455.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Guzzo/RCM
NEAR TERM...Guzzo
SHORT TERM...RCM
LONG TERM...RCM
AVIATION...DeSilva/Guzzo/RCM
MARINE...DeSilva/Guzzo/RCM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...