019
FXUS61 KPHI 241725
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
125 PM EDT Sun Aug 24 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains situated offshore today. A cold front
approaches from the west tonight, crossing through the area on
Monday. An expansive area of high pressure will then build
across the Central US through Thursday. A weak cold front may
cross through the area on Friday, ahead of an area of Canadian
high pressure which will build into the area next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
High pressure offshore will continue to bring southerly flow
ahead of an approaching cold front from the west. A few isolated
to scattered showers may be possible across the Poconos and
western portions of the Lehigh Valley this morning, but more
scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop in
the afternoon mainly west of the I-95 corridor. Areas along the
I-95 corridor and south/east will stay mostly dry during the
daytime hours. The main forcing looks to be concentrated further
south of the region where a low will form over the coastal
Carolinas this morning and move offshore to the north and east,
staying far away from our region. Thus, the main precip chances
we will have are associated with the slow-moving frontal
boundary that will push through late Sunday night and into early
Monday morning, when isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms will reach the I-95 corridor.

Warmer and more humid Sunday with temperatures in the low to
mid 80s and dew points reaching the mid 60s. Areas that see
breaks in the clouds during the afternoon, mainly along the I-95
corridor and points south/east, will actually feel seasonable
for the end of August with some warmth and humidity.
Temperatures at night will fall into the low to mid 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Any remaining showers associated with the front will come to an end
on Monday as the cold front crosses through the area. Behind the
front, skies will clear and winds will become more westerly, at
times gusting up to 20 mph in the afternoon. High temps will vary
from the upper 70s to low 80s north and west of I-95 while topping
out in the low to mid 80s south and east of the I-95 corridor as the
front will take a bit longer to cross through these areas.

High pressure will then be in control through Tuesday night as it
builds across the Central US. With the area being positioned on the
eastern periphery of the high and under a deep upper trough, a
seasonably cool and dry airmass will be welcomed into the region.
High temperatures on Tuesday will only be in the 70s (60s in the
Poconos) with lows falling into the mid to upper 50s both nights.
Cannot rule out even a few 40s in the higher terrain and more
sheltered locales, especially on Tuesday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Little in the way of changes were made to the long term period as a
deep trough remains parked over the Eastern US. Seasonably cool but
dry weather will persist through much of the week into next weekend
as a result of an expansive area of high pressure settling over the
center of the country. A weak frontal boundary may try to cross
through the region on Friday, but as of now, expect it to pass
through dry. Otherwise, another large area of high pressure
originating from Canada will sink down and settle over the northern
Great Lakes. This will cause cool and dry conditions to continue
into next weekend. Temperatures will feel more like late September
rather than late August throughout the period.

Unfortunately, the region is slowly starting to see pockets of
abnormally dry conditions. Many positives this coming week weather-
wise, but the lack of rain won`t help with the increased dryness.
The US Drought Monitor should be something to keep an eye on in the
weeks ahead.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Rest of today...Generally VFR. A few SHRA possible at
KRDG/KABE, but confidence is low that a given SHRA, even a TSRA,
will pass over the terminal. S to SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Moderate
confidence.

Tonight...Few SHRA, even a TSRA, possible tonight, but
confidence is low that any will pass over a given terminal. Will
not include VCSH or VCTS with 18Z TAFs. CIGs/VSBYs will lower to
MVFR/IFR after 06Z in fog/stratus. Light S winds, becoming
nearly calm. Low confidence.

Monday...VFR. W-NW winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt
with gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. High confidence.

Outlook...

Monday night through Thursday...VFR. No significant weather
expected.

&&

.MARINE...
Seas remain elevated, but are finally showing signs of
subsiding. Will go ahead and bump up wave heights to 4 to 6 feet
and will extend the Small Craft Advisory until 8 pm, though seas
may subside to sub-advisory criteria earlier that that on the
northern NJ ocean waters.

Sub-SCA conditions tonight through Monday. South to southeast
winds 10 to 15 kt, turning west to northwest late Monday morning
and Monday afternoon with gusts up to 20 kt possible.

Outlook...

Monday through Thursday...No marine headlines expected. Winds
will generally remain less than 15 kt with seas around 2-4 feet.
Fair weather expected.

Rip Currents...

For Today, ocean conditions continue to improve. However,
breaking wave heights of 3-5 feet will continue with an easterly
3-4 foot swell remaining around 10-12 seconds. Southeast winds
around 10 mph. As a result, have maintained a HIGH risk for the
development of dangerous rip currents for all beaches.

For Monday, winds become west-southwesterly around 10 mph with
breaking wave heights of 2-4 feet. Although the easterly swell
from Erin will be decreasing, a new southeasterly 3-4 foot, 7-9
second swell from Fernand is expected to propagate toward our
coastline. As a result, have opted to upgrade to a HIGH risk of
dangerous rip currents for all beaches. An extension of the
current Rip Current Statement may be needed for Monday.

For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Due to persistent shore parallel flow, water has had a difficult
time draining out of back bays in both New Jersey and Delaware
as well as the tidal Delaware River. Latest observations indicate
that minor tidal flooding is still expected with the high tide
cycle this morning, particularly for the back bays. Therefore,
the Coastal Flood Advisories remain in place for the tidal
Delaware River through 6 AM this morning. The Coastal Flood
Advisories in both Ocean County (for Barnegat Bay) and Sussex
County (for Rehoboth and Little Assawoman Bay) are now in place
through 2 PM this afternoon. Further extensions may be needed
depending on how fast water drains out of the back bays.

Spotty minor flooding may continue though at times of high tide
to start the new week. Again, no further tidal flooding is
expected on the ocean front.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for
     NJZ020-026.
     High Risk for Rip Currents until 8 PM EDT this evening for NJZ014-
     024>026.
DE...Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for
     DEZ003-004.
     High Risk for Rip Currents until 8 PM EDT this evening for DEZ004.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for
     ANZ450>455.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DeSilva
NEAR TERM...MJL
SHORT TERM...DeSilva
LONG TERM...DeSilva/Kruzdlo
AVIATION...DeSilva/MJL/MPS
MARINE...DeSilva/MJL/MPS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...