761
FXUS61 KPHI 110531
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
1231 AM EST Thu Dec 11 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front crosses our region overnight, then high pressure
builds in to our south Thursday as low pressure continues to
depart through Atlantic Canada. A series of weak inconsequential
disturbances move through Friday into early Saturday. A
somewhat stronger system may affect the area with some snow
Saturday night into Sunday as low pressure may form along an
arctic front as it moves south and eastward through the area.
Arctic high pressure will then dominate our weather to start
next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
A cold front moves through overnight and will be mostly dry as
it pushes through. Behind the front, however, WNW winds pick up
again and usher in a colder airmass. Lows will fall into the
upper teens for the Poconos with 20s to around 30 elsewhere.
WNW winds ramp up to 10-15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph.
Resultant wind chills will fall into the single digits across
the Poconos and into the teens and 20s elsewhere.

Gusty W-WNW winds will persist on Thursday, ramping up to 15-20
mph with frequent gusts up to 30-35 mph during the afternoon.
This will continue to support strong cold air advection across
the region, keeping afternoon highs in the teens and 20s with
only a few locations across the Philly Metro and Delmarva
touching 30.

While most of the region will see a dry, cold, and windy
Thursday, this weather pattern is very favorable for the
potential for snow showers and possibly snow squalls streaming
in from the Great Lakes. Forecast soundings show steepening
low-level lapse rates along with a stream of low-level moisture
advecting in from the Great Lakes. High res guidance shows the
potential for snow showers and snow squalls developing across
northeast PA and northern NJ. High confidence for snow squalls
are around Carbon and Monroe Counties in PA with the potential
extending across the rest of the I-80 corridor into the Lehigh
Valley and northern NJ. Also can`t fully rule out a quick snow
shower or snow squall as far south as the I-78 corridor. While
total snowfall accumulation may not be impressive, the gusty
winds, low visibilities, and potential for flash freezes make
snow squalls incredibly dangerous for anyone on the road!

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The weather pattern through the short term will continue to be
dominated by a broad upper level trough over eastern North America
keeping temperatures below average. For Thursday night, deep low
pressure will continue to move northward through Atlantic Canada as
high pressure moves across the SE US. The pressure gradient between
these two systems will result in continuing gusty winds into early
evening but the winds should gradually diminish with time. However
they will not go calm and should still be at around 10 mph out of
the west by Friday morning. Lows will generally be in the low to mid
20s (teens over NW NJ and the southern Poconos) but the wind chill
will make it feel several degrees colder than this.

Friday through Friday night, there will be a series of weak
disturbances moving through the upper level flow and these could
bring a few flurries to the area at times but nothing significant is
expected. The highest POPs are still for Friday night but even then
POPs are only around 20 to 30 percent. Otherwise expect considerable
cloud cover around Friday through Saturday with below average
temperatures. Highs Friday will be mainly in the 30s with
temperatures warming by several degrees into Saturday ahead of the
next cold front. Lows Friday night will range from the mid/upper
teens north to the 20s south.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The overall weather pattern doesn`t change much to start the long
term as yet another blast of arctic air is slated to move move in
for the end of the weekend into the new week. The other main story
will be the next in a series of clipper type systems that could
bring a little snow for Saturday into early Sunday.

For Saturday night into Sunday, a deepening upper level trough moves
from the Great Lakes towards the east coast. This will occur as an
arctic front moves southward into the region. Forecast guidance
continues to indicate that a wave of low pressure may try to form
along this boundary as it reaches the mid Atlantic which could bring
at least parts of the area some light snow. The time frame for this
if it occurs would be Saturday night into Sunday morning. It needs
to be stressed though that this 3 to 4 days out and there remains a
large spread in our forecast guidance regarding this system as there
are several moving pieces. Some guidance moves the cold front though
quickly and barely develops the wave at all which would mean we`d
just get some flurries. Other guidance indicates a low forming near
or just south of the area bringing a general 1 to 3 inches of snow
for much of our forecast area. This would be the snowiest case
scenario for the I-95 corridor and points south as there`s even
model guidance developing a stronger wave meaning warm air advection
associated with it would result in mainly rain near the coastal
plain with accumulating snow staying mainly N/W of the I-95
corridor. Given this uncertainty, we stayed close to the National
Blend of Models (NBM) for the long term forecast. This results in
roughly 40 to 50 percent POPs for some light snow Saturday night
into Sunday morning. Once the front passes offshore by midday Sunday
it will be quite cold and breezy. Lows Saturday night look to be
mainly in the 20s with highs Sunday only a few degrees warmer than
this...mainly in the upper 20s to low 30s. However winds Sunday into
sunday night will be NW at least 10 to 15 gusting up to 20-30 mph.
This will result in wind chills in the teens during the day Sunday
and as low as the single digits Sunday night!

Monday remains very cold and continuing at least somewhat breezy as
the arctic high builds in to our south while low pressure continues
to pull away through the Canadian Maritimes. Highs will be mainly in
the 20s to low 30s but with the wind chill it will feel more like
the teens to low 20s. It should at least be partly sunny and dry.

High pressure looks to dominate heading into the middle of next week
bringing continuing cold and dry weather. There will be some
moderation in temperatures but it will still remain below average.
By Wednesday highs look to range from the mid 30s north to the low
to mid 40s south.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Rest of tonight...Some MVFR visibilities at KABE and KRDG prior to
the winds increasing, otherwise VFR at all terminals. West-southwest
winds 5-10 knots, becoming west-northwest and increasing to 10-15
knots with gusts 20-25 knots. Moderate confidence.

Thursday...VFR overall. A few snow showers possible near mainly KABE
later in the afternoon and early evening, and a PROB30 was included
for this potential. West-northwest winds 15-20 knots with gusts to
around 30 knots. Low confidence in snow shower details.

Thursday night...VFR. Westerly winds 10-15 knots with gusts to 20-25
knots, diminishing overnight. High confidence.

Outlook..

Friday through Saturday...VFR with no significant weather expected.


Saturday night through Sunday....A period of sub-VFR conditions and
some snow possible Saturday night into Sunday morning. West to west-
northwest winds may gust to 20-25 knots during the day Sunday into
Sunday night.

Monday...VFR with no significant weather expected.

&&

.MARINE...
For tonight, SCA conditions expected with winds 20-30 kt, first
out of the southwest, then coming out of the northwest around
08z-10z with a frontal passage.

For Thursday, a new Gale Warning was issued to cover the post-
frontal winds for all marine zones. Northwest winds will be
around 20-30 kt with gusts around 35 kt.

Seas will diminish to 3-6 feet Thursday afternoon.

Outlook...

Thursday night...Gales Thursday evening diminishing some
overnight.

Friday through Friday night...Conditions should be below Small Craft
Advisory levels.

Saturday and Sunday...Small Craft Advisory probable. Gale force wind
gusts possible, mostly during Sunday into Sunday night.

Monday...Small Craft Advisory level conditions likely.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST early this morning for
     ANZ430-431-450>455.
     Gale Warning from 6 AM this morning to 6 PM EST this evening
     for ANZ430-431-453>455.
     Gale Warning from 6 AM this morning to 1 AM EST Friday for
     ANZ450>452.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Fitzsimmons
NEAR TERM...Hoeflich/MJL/MPS
SHORT TERM...Fitzsimmons
LONG TERM...Fitzsimmons
AVIATION...Fitzsimmons/Gorse/MPS
MARINE...Fitzsimmons/Hoeflich/MPS