393
FXUS61 KPHI 032333
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
733 PM EDT Thu Jul 3 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A reinforcing cold front will drop through the region tonight.
Dry high pressure will build into the region on Friday and
remain in control through the weekend, providing seasonable
temperatures and tranquil weather conditions. Warmer, more
humid, and unsettled conditions will return early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Severe Thunderstorm Watch has now been cancelled. The outflow
boundary appears to have outrun all the ongoing convection,
making it unlikely we see additional severe weather this
evening. Some spotty additional flooding may still occur where a
little training occurs, but it should be isolated.

For the rest of tonight, expect remaining storms to weaken
quickly after sunset with the loss of diurnal heating. The front
will make its way off the coast, giving way to a mostly clear
sky. Lows should fall into the 50s and 60s.

For Independence Day, a rather pleasant and dry day is
expected. A high pressure system builds into the region and will
keep the day dry and sunny. The post frontal regime after
today`s cold front will translate to temperatures mainly in the
low to mid 80s and comfortable humidity values with dew points
in the 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Dry and seasonable weather conditions expected for the rest of
the holiday weekend.

High pressure overhead Friday night will result in clear skies
and calm winds, a great setup for strong radiational cooling
night. As a result, we will likely see the coolest and most
comfortable summer night in quite some time, with lows in the
mid 50s to mid 60s and a dry airmass in place.

The broad ridging will dominate the region over the weekend,
which will keep convection suppressed and temperatures near
normal, though temperatures will start trending upward a couple
degrees each day. Saturday will be another very pleasant day,
similar to Friday as the surface high slides overhead. High
temperatures remaining in the mid to upper 80s under sunny skies
and dewpoints mixing out nicely once again to provide us with
some low humidity. By Sunday, high pressure will be located
offshore, resulting in some return flow and thus a more sensible
increase in temperatures and humidity levels compared to the
previous days. Highs Sunday in the upper 80s to low 90s. Lows in
the 60s to near 70 degrees both nights.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Return flow will continue into the first half of next week as
upper ridging shifts out to sea and some troughing develops near
the Great Lakes. This will result in more unsettled conditions
developing again, with mostly diurnally driven chances for
showers and thunderstorms. Any severe threats remain to be seen.
The greatest chances for showers and storms currently looks to
be Tuesday and Wednesday. Expect temperatures to start trending
slightly above normal early next week as well, though they
should moderate some toward the middle of the week. Highs in the
mid 80s to low 90s and lows in the mid 60s to mid 70s, along
with increasing humidity.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Tonight...VFR. Residual showers and thunderstorms wane by
02Z. Northwest winds around 5 kt or less. High confidence.

Friday..VFR with a northwest wind 5-10 knots. High confidence.

Outlook...

Friday night through Sunday...VFR. No significant weather.

Monday and Tuesday...Prevailing VFR. Isolated thunderstorms
possible.

&&

.MARINE...
No marine headlines are in effect through tonight. West winds
around 5-10 kt this morning will become south-southwest around
10-15 kt this afternoon. For tonight, winds will veer from
southwest to north around 10-15 kt with the passing of a cold
front. Seas of 2-3 feet. Outside of an isolated thunderstorm,
fair weather is expected.

Friday night...Sub-SCA conditions expected.

Outlook...

Friday night through Monday...No marine hazards expected.

Rip Currents...

For Independence Day, north winds around 10 mph in the morning
will become southeast around 5-10 mph in the afternoon. Breaking
wave heights of 1-2 feet with a SSE swell of around 2 feet and
a 6-8 second period. As a result, have opted to go with a LOW
risk for dangerous rip currents for all beaches.

For Saturday, light northeast winds in the morning will become
south-southeast around 10 mph in the afternoon. Breaking wave
heights generally 1-2 feet with a SE swell of around 2 feet and
a 6-8 second period. As a result, will maintain a LOW risk for
dangerous rip currents for all beaches.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJL/Staarmann
NEAR TERM...DeSilva/Guzzo/RCM
SHORT TERM...MJL/Staarmann
LONG TERM...MJL/Staarmann
AVIATION...Guzzo/MJL/RCM
MARINE...Guzzo/MJL