022
FXUS61 KPHI 191042
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
642 AM EDT Sat Apr 19 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Bermuda high pressure will meander off the Mid-Atlantic and
Southeast coasts until departing through the middle of next
week. Low pressure passing north of the region will drag a cold
front through the region tonight. High pressure then builds in
from the north and west on Sunday and departs on Monday. Another
cold front passes through the region Monday night. High
pressure will be in control for the middle of the week, followed
by low pressure approaching for the next of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
The near term will feature warm weather with the potential for
some showers and isolated thunderstorms for some.

A warm front has moved northward which places the area well
into the warm sector. This leads to temperatures reaching the
low to mid 80s for most today. This will be accompanied by a
partly to mostly cloudy sky. A high pressure system moving
offshore and a low pressure system off to our northwest will
lead to a tightening pressure gradient across the area. A SW
wind will be gusting at times to 25-30 mph leading to a breezy
day.

The mentioned low pressure system drags a cold front through
the area late in the day leading to some isolated showers and
potentially a thunderstorm mainly during the evening and
overnight. This would be mainly for the Poconos, the Lehigh
Valley, and parts of NW New Jersey.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure over the Great Lakes Sunday morning will pass
through eastern Canada and northern New York Sunday night and
will be off the Northeast coast on Monday. An H5 trough over the
area departs on Sunday, and shortwave energy passing through
the region will keep skies partly to mostly cloudy. A cooler
airmass will spread into the region, with high temperatures in
the mid and upper 60s to low 70s. These highs will be some 10 to
15 degrees cooler than today. Partly to mostly cloudy and
cooler Sunday night with lows in the 40s to around 50. Highs on
Monday will be seasonable, topping off in the low to mid 60s.

Low pressure passes from the Great Lakes and into eastern
Canada Monday night and drags a cold front into the region.
models are currently indicating that the front is drying up with
its passage, and PoPs will be capped at chance (mainly 30 to 40
percent) for now with minimal QPF. Lows mainly in the 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Some lingering showers are possible Tuesday morning as the cold
front moves offshore. High pressure then establishes itself
over the area for the mid-week period with above normal
temperatures. Highs will be in the mid to upper 70s during this
period. High pressure breaks down by the end of the week and
another area of low pressure may take a run at the area by
Friday. Will follow NBM PoPs and carry slight chance PoPs, then
PoPs look to increase going into next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Today...VFR with a partly cloudy to mostly cloudy sky.
Southwest winds around 10-15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. A slight
chance of a shower possible at KRDG/KABE late. High confidence.

Tonight...VFR with a partly cloudy to mostly cloudy sky. Winds
become out of the west between 00-06Z. After 06Z, winds become
more out of the NW at 5-10 knots with gusts to 15 knots. There
will be some LLWS at 2000 feet from the SW at 40-50 knots for
KMIV/KACY from 00Z-06Z. A slight chance of a shower is also
possible at KRDG/KABE before 06Z. High confidence.

Outlook...

Sunday through Monday...VFR. NSW.

Monday night...Sub-VFR possible in scattered SHRA.

Tuesday...Lingering SHRA Tuesday morning, especially by
KMIV/KACY. Otherwise, VFR.

Wednesday...VFR. NSW.

&&

.MARINE...
A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for all Atlantic coastal
zones through 2 AM Sunday and for the Delaware Bay through 6 PM
on Saturday. Southwest winds with gusts up to 30 kt and seas
around 5 to 7 feet are expected.

Cold water concerns for water activities...
Given high confidence in land temperatures well above average and
the dangerously cold ocean water temperatures in the upper 40s
to lower 50s, those participating in water activities should be
aware of the dangers of hypothermia. Those planning to be on
the water should dress for the water temperature and not the air
temperature, especially given the much warmer conditions
further inland.

Hypothermia occurs when the body`s core temperature falls to 95
degrees Fahrenheit or colder, which can lead to exhaustion,
unconsciousness, or worse. In particular, those on kayaks and
paddleboards are especially at risk.

Outlook...

Although several weak cold fronts will pass through the waters
from Sunday through Wednesday, most notably Monday night through
Tuesday morning, conditions look to remain below SCA criteria
during this period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Today, Min RH values will be around 40-45% with southwest winds
around 15-20 mph and gusts up to 30 mph.

On Sunday, Min RH values will be 25-30% with northwest winds
10-15 mph with gusts up to 20 mph.

Considering these meteorological conditions, the risk for fire
spread is low through the weekend.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ430-
     431.
     Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ450>455.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MPS
NEAR TERM...Guzzo
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...MPS
AVIATION...Guzzo/MPS
MARINE...Guzzo/MPS
FIRE WEATHER...