592
FXUS61 KPHI 091909
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
309 PM EDT Sun Mar 9 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A series of lows will track by well to our north over the course of
the next couple days bringing a warming trend in temperatures
through Tuesday. A backdoor cold front will eventually move south
into portions of our area Tuesday night and Wednesday before going
back northward as a warm front next Thursday through Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Another tranquil weather day is ongoing as weak high pressure is
centered near the Chesapeake. Mostly sunny skies encompass much of
the region with only a few fair weather clouds nearby. Breezy
conditions up to 25-35 mph persist however, as temps have warmed
into the upper 40s to mid 50s.

Heading into tonight, the gusty winds are expected to diminish
quickly after sunset as boundary layer mixing ceases. High pressure
will shift offshore allowing weak southwesterly return flow to
develop. This will keep low temperatures from falling drastically,
but should primarily be in the 30s under clear skies.

On Monday, the region will be wedged in between low pressure systems
as one low tracks into the northern Great Lakes and the other skirts
off the coast of South Carolina. Other than some high clouds fanning
northward across portions of the Delmarva during the afternoon, wall
to wall sunshine is expected with high pressure offshore. High temps
are expected to top out in the low to mid 60s for much of the
region, with 50s in the higher elevations and along the coast. Winds
will also be much lighter too, generally around 10 mph. Overall, a
beautiful March day is in the cards.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Broad southwest flow will keep temperatures warm through Tuesday
before a backdoor front cools things down Wednesday.

A mild Monday night is in store with lows expected to only cool into
the mid to upper 30s.

For Tuesday, low pressure tracks north and east into Quebec dragging
a cold front into western PA and upstate NY by late day. SW flow
will continue across the area ahead of this feature allowing for
even warmer temperatures. Expect most areas to see highs in the
middle to upper 60s! Once again, exceptions will be the coast, the
southern Poconos and NW NJ as these areas as these areas will see
highs mainly in the upper 50s to low 60s.

For Tuesday night into Wednesday, an area of high pressure will sink
in from the north, bringing through a backdoor cold front across the
region. Lows Tuesday night will be in the upper 20s to mid 30s
across the highlands and Poconos while the Piedmont region and
Coastal Plains will see upper 30s to low 40s. Temperatures will not
warm much on Wednesday with northeast flow, likely staying in the
low 50s across most of the region (40s for the Poconos). Winds will
shift E Wednesday night with increasing clouds thanks to the onshore
flow. Lows will be in the 30s to around 40.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As the surface high to our north shifts east and further offshore,
southeast return flow will pull the backdoor front northward and
allow temperatures to rebound with highs expected in the mid 50s to
low 60s for Thursday. Southerly flow will persist into Friday and
Saturday, allowing our warm stretch to continue. Friday will warm
into the low to mid 60s before an approaching system cranks up warm
air advection on Saturday, potentially warming afternoon
temperatures into the mid 60s to low 70s! This system will then
approach us on Sunday with most guidance expecting a cold front to
push through the region later in the day. At the moment, it does
look like the first half of Sunday will stay dry enough for
temperatures to warm into the upper 60s to low 70s once again before
our next chance for rain arrives with the frontal passage Sunday
afternoon through Sunday night.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Rest of Today...VFR. FEW/SCT clouds between 5000 and 7000 ft through
21-22Z. West-southwest winds around 12-17 kt with gusts up to 25-28
kt. High confidence.

Tonight...VFR/SKC. Southwest winds around 4-7 kt. Have included LLWS
in the TAFs for RDG/ABE between 06-12Z. High confidence.

Monday...VFR/SKC. West-southwest winds around 5-10 kt. High
confidence.

Outlook...

Monday night through Tuesday night...VFR.

Wednesday and Wednesday night...Mainly VFR, but sub-VFR conditons
possible with increasing clouds due to northeast flow.

Thursday...Potential for sub-VFR conditions lingering into the first
parts of the day, mainly due to low cigs with continuing onshore
flow. VFR after.

Friday...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
The Small Craft Advisory on the Atlantic coastal waters and the
Delaware Bay has been cancelled as of 3 PM.

Southwest winds around 15-20 kt for the remainder of the afternoon
will continue through tonight with seas around 2-3 feet. Winds will
become more south-southwesterly around 10-15 kt on Monday with seas
around 2 feet or less. Fair weather.

Outlook...

Monday night through Tuesday...Conditions are expected to stay below
Small Craft Advisory levels.

Tuesday Night through Thursday Night...Marginal Small Craft Advisory
conditions will be possible much of this period, mainly due to seas.

Friday...Conditions are expected to stay below Small Craft Advisory
levels.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A Special Weather Statement is in effect until 7 PM today for an
elevated risk of fire spread for the entire area. West-southwest
winds around 15-20 mph with gusts up to 30-35 mph will continue with
MinRH values around 25-35%. Wind gusts will quickly drop off after
sunset to around 5-10 mph and RHs will recover overnight.

For Monday, winds will be much lighter compared to Sunday, as west-
southwest winds will be around 10-15 mph. MinRH values will also be
in the 30-40% range. Due to lighter winds and slightly higher RHs,
there does not appear to be an elevated risk for fire spread at this
time.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJL
NEAR TERM...DeSilva
SHORT TERM...MJL
LONG TERM...MJL
AVIATION...DeSilva/MJL
MARINE...DeSilva/MJL
FIRE WEATHER...WFO PHI