342
FXUS61 KPHI 061319
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
919 AM EDT Sun Oct 6 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Surface high pressure continues to influence the region today.
A cold front approaches tonight and will cross through Monday
morning. Surface high pressure returns in thereafter, and holds
influence over the region into the start of next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
High pressure presently sits to our north, providing light
winds and clear skies this morning. A cool start followed by a
bit of easterly flow for a time before shifting southerly should
hold temps a little lower than Saturday, but still pleasant mid
70s should prevail, which is a bit on the warm side for October
6th.

The cold front currently crossing the Upper Midwest and western
Great Lakes will enter our region tonight and clear us on Monday
morning. With best forcing to the north, likely showers will
affect our northern zones, with decreasing chances as one heads
south. The upper forcing is just strong enough to include a
slight chance of thunder, but not expecting much given the
passage is in the late night and early morning hours. Then
again, this time of year, time of day matters less as we
continue to lose insolation day by day. In any case, rainfall
looks meager, generally a tenth of an inch or less, not much to
help with the developing drought.

By midday Monday, clearing skies and stiff northwest breeze
should take hold. Temps should rebound back to the vicinity of
70 plus or minus a couple degrees, which is still close to
normal, but no longer notably on the plus side of it.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Surface high pressure to our west begins to build in Monday
night and Tuesday. This will bring northwest winds and clearing
skies with cooler temps. Lows Monday night will be mainly in
the 40s across the region, though some low 50s may be sprinkled
in the heart of the Philly metro and at the immediate coasts of
NJ and DE. Highs on Tuesday are forecast to top out in the mid-
upper 60s with mainly clear skies continuing.

Guidance continues to indicate some shortwave energy propagating
through Tuesday night/Wednesday, but with the high pressure
remaining in control, some increase in cloud cover will likely
be all that occurs. Temperatures Tuesday night and Wednesday
look to be a degree or two cooler as well with drier air
continuing to be advected in with the northwest flow.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The region looks to be influenced by surface high pressure
through the duration of the long term as another bubble of high
pressure centered over the Great Lakes region Wednesday
night/Thursday slowly slides south/southeastwards with time for
reinforcement. Ultimately, surface high pressure continues to
influence the region while looking to be centered in the
vicinity of the Ohio River Valley for Thursday, Friday, and
Saturday.

With surface high pressure in control, we are looking at a dry
forecast through the long term as dry air advection and
prevailing NW flow continue. It will certainly feel like autumn
with low humidity and temperatures forecast to be around
average to slightly below average.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Today...VFR. Winds light/variable becoming S to SW 5-10 kts.
High confidence.

Tonight...VFR to start, then sub-VFR possible especially
northern terminals as showers move thru, potentially resulting
in brief IFR cigs/vsby. South to southwest winds 5-10 kts.
Moderate confidence.

Monday...Sub-VFR potentially in the morning becoming VFR by
midday. Winds becoming NW around 10 kts. Moderate confidence.

Outlook...

Monday night through Thursday...VFR. No significant weather
anticipated.

&&

.MARINE...
It will remain below Small Craft Advisory levels today, with
winds becoming southerly 10-15 kts and seas 3-4 ft.

SCA takes effect this evening on the ocean zones and continues
through Monday. Seas build to 5-7 feet with southwest winds
switching to northwest with some gusts up to 25 kts with cold
front moving through. An isolated thunderstorm also can`t be
ruled out late tonight into Monday morning.

Outlook...

Monday night...SCA conditions anticipated, seas 5-7 feet.
Fair weather.

Tuesday through Thursday...Seas around 5 feet may linger into
daytime Tuesday. Otherwise, no marine headlines anticipated
through Thursday. Fair weather.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT
     Tuesday for ANZ450.
     Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT
     Tuesday for ANZ451>455.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AKL/RCM
NEAR TERM...DeSilva/RCM
SHORT TERM...AKL
LONG TERM...AKL/Wunderlin
AVIATION...AKL/DeSilva/RCM
MARINE...AKL/DeSilva/RCM