602
FXUS61 KPHI 120133
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
933 PM EDT Sat Oct 11 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A coastal storm will affect the region through early next week
bringing significant impacts to parts of our area. Improving
conditions expected by Tuesday as the storm weakens and moves
out to sea. High pressure will begin building back into the
region during the middle to end of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
***SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS FOR OUR COASTAL COUNTIES FROM A COASTAL
 STORM SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY***

As of 9 PM, a 998 mb low is off the South Carolina coast. This
is the start of the coastal low impacts for our region which
will continue through Monday. This low, and potentially a second
surface low (more on that in the next paragraph), will bring
coastal flooding and wind impacts to parts of our region. East-
northeast winds are increasing over the marine area and along
the New Jersey and Delaware coasts. Some wind gusts of 30-35
mph have been observed along the coast so far this evening.

What has changed: Most notably, a majority of the main deterministic
models are now depicting a double barreled low solution. These
solutions show a second surface low developing closer to Long Island
as the northern upper level trough approaches. The net result of
this for our area could be lower total rain amounts, and wind
impacts more confined to the coast.

Hazards: For more information on the coastal flood hazards and
marine navigation hazards, please see the Tides/coastal flooding and
marine sections below.

Wind...As mentioned above, it is looking more likely with the latest
guidance that the stronger winds will be confined closer to the
coast. Consequently changed the Watch to a combination of High Wind
Warning (for the coastal strip, plus all of Cape May County), and a
Wind Advisory for the remainder of what was in the Watch area. The
main period of impact looks to be from 15Z/11AM EDT Sunday through
Sunday night.

Rain...Didn`t make any significant changes with the rain amounts
with this forecast. The current forecast is pretty much in the
middle of guidance, but given the uncertainty with the double
barreled low solutions, there is a wide range of rain amount
guidance for an event that will essentially happen within the next
48 hours. Current forecast is for 0.75 to 2 inches for inland
locations and 1 to 3 inches for coastal areas. All that being said,
with how long of a duration the rain is falling, the
freshwater/rainfall flooding threat is limited. However, minor
flooding in poor drainage areas is possible, and there remains a
concern that the rain will exacerbate coastal flooding impacts.

Timing: Some showers with this system already occurred today and
this evening. However, the main rain shield won`t start to move into
our region until late tonight or Sunday morning, with the bulk of
the rain falling from later Sunday morning through the day on
Monday. As for winds, the main period of concern is from late Sunday
morning through Sunday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Conditions look to begin to improve Monday night as the initial
low looks to weaken but with the potential double barrel
solution and a secondary low developing, periods of light rain
and gusty winds will continue through much of the overnight
hours.

Through Tuesday, the remaining low will begin to shift further
away, leaving just breezy conditions (highest gusts around 20-30
mph along the coast) as well as a few lingering showers near
the coast. The low will push out to sea by Tuesday night with
dry conditions across the region and a gradual clearing of skies.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Broad high pressure will build across the Great Lakes region
from the middle of next week through the end of the long term
period and extend out over our region. As a result, the forecast
for next Wednesday through Saturday is currently dry across the
whole region. Wednesday could remain relatively mild before CAA
ramps up with northwest flow as the high approaches. The cooler
airmass will arrive by the end of the week, with below normal
temperatures anticipated for Thursday and Friday. Temperatures
may begin to moderate on Saturday as the mid-level northwest
flow weakens.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Tonight...MVFR ceilings, however times of VFR ceilings at some
terminals especially through late this evening. Some lingering
showers will result in visibility restrictions for a time.
Northeast winds 5-10 knots will increase to around 15 knots with
gusts to 20-25 knots late (highest toward the coast, slower
increase at KABE and KRDG). Low confidence regarding ceiling
height and visibility timing/details.

Sunday through Monday...MVFR/IFR conditions with rounds of rain
moving through, with the most widespread rain looking to occur
mostly Sunday night into Monday. Northeast winds 15-25 knots
with gusts 25-40 knots, highest at KACY and KMIV. Low confidence
on timing details, especially with visibility restrictions.

Outlook...

Monday Night...Restrictions expected with showers and low
clouds. Wind gusts diminish to around 15-25 kt out of the
north/northeast.

Tuesday...Conditons improve but sub-VFR conditions possible
with lingering showers and clouds. Wind gusts could get near 20
kt at times.

Wednesday and Thursday..VFR with no significant weather.

&&

.MARINE...
No changes made at this point to the marine hazards. East to
northeast winds and waves are increasing this evening and this
will continue right through late Sunday. The strongest winds
are expected during the day on Sunday continuing through Sunday
evening before gradually subsiding. Still expecting storm force
winds on the lower Delaware Bay and the NJ/DE Atlantic coastal
waters. For the upper Delaware Bay, expect gale conditions.

Dangerous seas up to 20 feet are expected. Periods of rain and
sea spray restricting visibility at times, especially Sunday
into Monday.

Outlook...

Monday night through Thursday...Conditions will begin to
improve as the storm weakens and begins to move away. However,
gale force winds may linger through Tuesday and elevated seas
above 5 feet may linger through Thursday.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
We`ll continue with the Coastal Flood Advisories for the next tide
cycle before the larger event for Sunday. The latest numbers for the
upcoming tide were similar to previous fcst, so saw no need for any
major changes. Either low-end minor tidal flooding or just below
that is expected this evening and into the overnight.

Meanwhile, there is an increasing risk of moderate to major
coastal flooding impacts beginning Sunday through Monday as a
coastal storm impacts the region. Guidance still varies in
potential outcomes of this storm with regard to severity of
coastal flood impacts locally, however we remain very concerned
about the potential for significant impacts from this storm
along our coasts. At this time, the greatest threat of impacts
are anticipated to occur along the Atlantic coasts of New Jersey
and Delaware, and Delaware Bay. A Coastal Flood Warning remains
in effect for Sunday through Monday.

Severe beach erosion and dune breaching are quite possible
along the entire New Jersey Shore and for Delaware Beaches due
to the very high surf conditions that are expected. Interests
along the Atlantic coast, Delaware Bay, back bays, and tidal
waterways should remain alert for forecast updates regarding
this significant coastal flood event.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Coastal Flood Advisory from 2 PM Sunday to 11 PM EDT Monday
     for PAZ070-071-106.
NJ...Coastal Flood Warning from 11 AM Sunday to 9 PM EDT Monday for
     NJZ016.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 AM EDT Sunday for NJZ021>025.
     Coastal Flood Warning from 8 AM Sunday to 8 PM EDT Monday for
     NJZ012>014-020>027.
     Wind Advisory from 11 AM Sunday to 6 AM EDT Monday for NJZ013-
     020-022-027.
     High Wind Warning from 11 AM Sunday to 6 AM EDT Monday for
     NJZ014-023>026.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 2 PM Sunday to 11 PM EDT Monday
     for NJZ017>019.
DE...Coastal Flood Warning from 11 AM Sunday to 9 PM EDT Monday for
     DEZ001.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 AM EDT Sunday for DEZ002>004.
     Coastal Flood Warning from 8 AM Sunday to 8 PM EDT Monday for
     DEZ002>004.
     Wind Advisory from 11 AM Sunday to 6 AM EDT Monday for DEZ003.
     High Wind Warning from 11 AM Sunday to 6 AM EDT Monday for
     DEZ004.
MD...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 8 PM EDT Monday for ANZ430.
     Storm Warning until 8 PM EDT Monday for ANZ431-450>455.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AKL
NEAR TERM...Gorse/Johnson
SHORT TERM...AKL
LONG TERM...AKL
AVIATION...AKL/Gorse
MARINE...AKL/Johnson
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...OHara