658
FXUS61 KPHI 241815
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
215 PM EDT Sun Aug 24 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move across the east coast later tonight
through Monday. High pressure builds across the Upper and Mid
Mississippi Valley Monday through Tuesday, then across the Ohio
Valley Wednesday. This high will build across the Mid Atlantic
region Thursday, then offshore Thursday night. A cold front is
expected to move across the Northeast and Mid Atlantic states
later Friday into Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
A cold front through western New York and western Pennsylvania
will continue to track east tonight and will not make it through
the region until Monday morning. Isolated to scattered showers
and thunderstorms ahead of and with its passage, but models have
really backed off on PoPs and on coverage. PoPs may be as high
as likely in portions of the southern Poconos and western
portions of the Lehigh Valley. Otherwise, PoPs will mostly be
slight chance to chance, and not much farther east than the I-95
corridor.

Warm and humid tonight with low stratus and patchy fog developing.
Lows in the low to mid 60s.

The cold front passes through the region Monday morning. Fog lifts
and dissipates shortly after sunrise.

Skies become mostly sunny on Monday, though it will take some time
for the cooler and drier air to work its way into the local area.
Highs will be in the low to mid 80s. Dew points will be in the mid
to upper 60s in the morning, not dropping below 60 until late in the
day.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
The cold front moves out to sea Monday night through Tuesday,
while high pressure builds across the Upper and Mid Mississippi
Valley. Meanwhile, a long wave trough will approach the
northeast states through Tuesday into Tuesday night and a
weakening surface trough approaches from the west. Scattered
showers may develop to our west on Tuesday, but most will
dissipate before they reach our area. By Wednesday and Wednesday
night, this high will build across the Ohio Valley.
Temperatures will be near or a couple of degrees below normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
On Thursday, the high will build across the Mid Atlantic
region, before building offshore Thursday night. This will bring
tranquil weather to the area through Thursday night. By Friday,
a cold front will begin approaching the area from the
northwest, eventually cross the east coast later Friday into
Saturday. As the front moves into the area, there will be a
slight chance of showers develop across the area.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Rest of today...Generally VFR. A few SHRA possible at
KRDG/KABE, but confidence is low that a given SHRA, even a TSRA,
will pass over the terminal. S to SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Moderate
confidence.

Tonight...Few SHRA, even a TSRA, possible tonight, but
confidence is low that any will pass over a given terminal. Will
not include VCSH or VCTS with 18Z TAFs. CIGs/VSBYs will lower
to MVFR/IFR after 06Z in fog/stratus. Light S winds, becoming
nearly calm. Low confidence.

Monday...VFR. W-NW winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt
with gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. High confidence.

Outlook...

Monday night-Friday...VFR conditions expected. No significant
weather expected.

&&

.MARINE...
Seas remain elevated, but are finally showing signs of
subsiding. Will go ahead and bump up wave heights to 4 to 6 feet
and will extend the Small Craft Advisory until 8 pm, though
seas may subside to sub-advisory criteria earlier that that on
the northern NJ ocean waters.

Sub-SCA conditions tonight through Monday. South to southeast
winds 10 to 15 kt, turning west to northwest late Monday morning
and Monday afternoon with gusts up to 20 kt possible.
Outlook...

Monday night-Friday...Sub-Advisory conditions expected.

Rip Currents...

For Today, ocean conditions continue to improve. However,
breaking wave heights of 3-5 feet will continue with an easterly
3-4 foot swell remaining around 10-12 seconds. Southeast winds
around 10 mph. As a result, have maintained a HIGH risk for the
development of dangerous rip currents for all beaches.

For Monday, winds become west-southwesterly around 10 mph with
breaking wave heights of 2-4 feet. Although the easterly swell
from Erin will be decreasing, a new southeasterly 3-4 foot, 7-9
second swell from Fernand is expected to propagate toward our
coastline. As a result, have opted to upgrade to a HIGH risk of
dangerous rip currents for all beaches. An extension of the
current Rip Current Statement may be needed for Monday.

For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
The Coastal Flood Advisories in both Ocean County (for Barnegat
Bay) and Sussex County (for Rehoboth and Little Assawoman
Bay) have been allowed to expire as water levels continue to
fall below advisory levels. We will have to see what happens
with the next low tide this evening, but if it equals or is
lower than the previous low tide, then the overnight high tide
will likely remain below advisory levels. However, if the next
high tide is higher that the previous, then the overnight high
tide may rise above advisory levels. We will hold off extending
the advisory for now and see how the low tide pans out.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...High Risk for Rip Currents until 8 PM EDT this evening for NJZ014-
     024>026.
DE...High Risk for Rip Currents until 8 PM EDT this evening for DEZ004.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for
     ANZ450>455.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Robertson
NEAR TERM...MPS
SHORT TERM...Robertson
LONG TERM...Robertson
AVIATION...MPS/Robertson
MARINE...MPS/Robertson
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...