048
FXUS61 KPHI 230814
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
314 AM EST Sun Nov 23 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak clipper system will pass by to the north on Sunday. High
pressure moves in Sunday night through Tuesday morning, with a
frontal system moving in for the mid-week period. High pressure
takes over in the wake of the frontal system for the
Thanksgiving holiday through the end of the week, resulting in
dry but cold weather.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Northwesterly flow aloft will continue through the morning
hours. A mid-level impulse will pass just to the north of the
region this afternoon. Heights will begin to rise with the
passage of the impulse and will continue to rise through the day
Monday. At the surface, a weak low pressure system will track
through southern Ontario and Quebec today, and through far
northern New England tonight. A trailing cold front will pass
through the region tonight. High pressure will build into the
area in its wake.

Tranquil conditions are expected through the remainder of the
overnight hours, with mostly clear skies and calm wind.
Temperatures will bottom out in the mid-upper 20s for most of
eastern PA and NJ, with low 30s in the Delmarva, urban corridor,
and coastal plain. One potential fly in the ointment remains
the possibility of some patchy fog development. Haven`t seen
much in the way of that so far, but it will remain possible
until an hour or two after sunrise. With cold temperatures, if
fog were to develop, some icing could occur, primarily on
elevated surfaces. With this in mind, will continue to monitor
this through the early morning.

Skies later today will likely become partly to mostly cloudy.
High temperatures will generally be in the low 50s north of I-78
and the mid 50s south. In the Poconos and into far northwestern
NJ, temperatures may struggle to get out of the low 40s. Most
will be dry today. However, there will be a slight chance
(around 20%) for a few rain or snow showers in the
aforementioned areas. Impacts would be minimal if this were to
occur.

With the passage of the cold front tonight, skies will become
mostly clear. Lows look to be in the low-mid 30s areawide.
Monday will be mostly clear to start, with increasing clouds
late. Highs look to be in the low 50s outside of the higher
elevations, where they should remain in the mid-upper 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Quiet on Monday Night as high pressure moves overhead and
offshore. Clouds increase ahead of the mid-week system, which
will prevent temperatures from bottoming out completely. With
the cold airmass in place though, temperatures will still fall
into the low to mid 30s.

On Tuesday, a warm front will be lifting northward through the area
which is attached to a deepening low pressure system near the Great
Lakes region. This warm front along with the high pressure system
moving offshore will set the stage for warmer air to filter in
Tuesday into Tuesday night. We are cloudy Tuesday with rain starting
to move in by midday and becoming more widespread Tuesday evening.
Highs on Tuesday are in the low 50s to low 60s.

Periods of rain continue Tuesday night into Wednesday. The first
cold front with the deepening low now moving into Canada will move
through Wednesday night. This will result in more periods of rain
into Wednesday night. In the temperature department, we see lows
Tuesday night in the mid 40s to mid 50s. Highs on Wednesday are in
the 60s for most. By Wednesday night, lows are in the 30s for many.
Starting to get within range of the QPF period, though not fully in
it yet to capture the mid-week system. However, the NBM Probability
of rainfall over 1" is less than 10% region-wide. Overall, this
system looks like a beneficial rain more than anything though
Tuesday through Wednesday Night is shaping up to be a damp and
dreary stretch.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The secondary cold front comes through on Thursday, ushering in a
stretch of below normal temperatures. Strong cold air-advection
should set up with an incoming area of high pressure and departing
low pressure, setting up a tight gradient and rush of cold air from
Canada. The result will be a breezy set of days to close out the
week, though it should be dry for both Thanksgiving and Black
Friday. Still too early to say exactly how strong wind gusts will be
both days, but would expect a period of blustery conditions with
below normal temperatures.

High pressure slides in Friday Night into Saturday, which will put
an end to the windy conditions. Still looking at below normal
temperatures for next weekend, though with some moderation. Dry
weather should continue through at least Saturday with the high in
the vicinity of the Mid-Atlantic.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Through 12Z...VFR. Light and variable wind with periods of
calm. There is a slight chance (20%) for the development of
patchy fog, which could cause temporary vsby restrictions. This
would be most likely for KMIV and KACY. Confidence is not high
enough to include in the TAFs at this time. High confidence
overall.

Today...VFR. SCT/BKN mid-level clouds. Light wind becoming
west-southwest and increasing to 5-10 kt by 15-17Z. High
confidence.

Tonight...VFR. West-northwest wind around 5 kt. High
confidence.

Monday...VFR. Northwest wind 5-10 kt.

Outlook...

Monday night...VFR. No significant weather.

Tuesday...Primarily VFR, though conditions likely deteriorate as the
day goes on dropping to MVFR by the late afternoon/early evening
with rain showers moving in.

Tuesday Night through Wednesday...MVFR/IFR conditions expected with
periods of rain and low clouds in place.

Wednesday Night...Conditions likely improving to VFR late, but
MVFR/IFR restrictions possible (40-60%) for at least part of the
night.

Thursday...VFR. Wind gusts out of the west/northwest around 20-30
kt.


&&

.MARINE...
A Small Craft Advisory is in effect from 7 PM this evening
until 1 PM Monday for all ocean zones as well as the Lower
Delaware Bay.

North wind around 10 kt will become westerly this afternoon and
increase to around 15 kt. Tonight, wind will become
northwesterly at 15-20 kt with frequent gusts around 25 kt. Wind
will remain northwesterly through the day Monday but is
expected to decrease by mid-late afternoon. Seas 1-3 feet
through today, increasing to 2-4 feet tonight into Monday
afternoon, and then decreasing again by Monday evening.

Outlook...

Monday Night through Tuesday...No marine headlines expected.

Tuesday Night...SCA conditions possible (50%), especially on the
ocean waters with wind gusts out of the south/southwest nearing 25
kt and seas 3 to 5 feet.

Wednesday...SCA conditions possible (50%) with seas near 5 feet.

Wednesday Night...SCA conditions expected with wind gusts 25-30 kt.

Thursday through Friday...SCA conditions expected with gales
possible (50%) with brisk west/northwest winds 25-35 kt. Seas may
near 5 feet at times.


&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Monday
     for ANZ431-450>455.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Guzzo/Hoeflich
NEAR TERM...Cooper
SHORT TERM...Guzzo/Hoeflich
LONG TERM...Hoeflich
AVIATION...Cooper/Hoeflich
MARINE...Cooper/Hoeflich