108
FXUS61 KPHI 102109
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
409 PM EST Mon Nov 10 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A much colder airmass will continue to filter into the region
with high pressure centered near the South Central US building
in through Tuesday. Another cold front crosses our area later
Wednesday. High pressure then starts to arrive later Thursday
and remains nearby through the the weekend. The next low
pressure system potentially arrives late Sunday into Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Unseasonably cold and blustery weather expected through Tuesday
night as a arctic airmass invades the eastern CONUS.

A cold front will continue pushing well out to sea into tonight as a
highly amplified trough axis pivots offshore. A strong cyclone will
lift into southeastern Canada on Tuesday as strong high pressure
remains centered near the Gulf coast. This will result in a strong
westerly pressure gradient across our region on Tuesday. A surface
ridge will pass across the area Tuesday night, which will help relax
the gradient and shift winds southwesterly.

Strong cold advection has commenced across the region in the wake of
the cold front, which will continue into Tuesday. Temperatures will
continue to fall into the 30s tonight, reaching minimums after dawn
on Tuesday. Scattered to broken stratocumulus will prevail into this
evening, then we should see some degree of clearing overnight. With
the surface pressure gradient not tightening up until after daybreak
Tuesday, the gusty northwest winds should diminish some and back
around toward the west overnight, but will remain around 10-15 mph
much of the night. Low temperatures Tuesday morning will range from
the mid 20s to near 30 degrees for most areas. These combined with
10-15 mph winds will result in morning minimum wind chills in the
teens and low 20s, the coldest experienced since March for our area.

During the daytime period Tuesday, the westerly gradient winds will
increase substantially. Low level (925-850 mb) wind fields will
increase to near 35-40 kts. Examination of BUFKIT profiles supports
widespread 30-35 kt wind gusts during much of the day, with some
isolated peak gusts near 40 kt possible. Sustained winds will
increase to around 20-25 mph in most areas with gusts near 40 mph.
Along the immediate Atlantic coast could see winds sustained near 30
mph at times with gusts up to 45 mph possible. The winds will be
close to advisory criteria, but most guidance suggests we should
remain safely shy of warranting an advisory at the moment.

Cold advection will begin to wane into the afternoon, but 850 mb
temperatures around -10C to -12C will only support high temperatures
in the low to mid 40s for most areas. We should also see widespread
stratocumulus development, especially across our NJ and PA counties,
so it should be a partly to mostly cloudy and raw day in most areas.

Some guidance suggests there will be enough mid level moisture and
steep lapse rates to produce some flurries or light snow showers
near and north of I-78, and perhaps as far south as central NJ and
the northern Philly suburbs (much less likely for the latter). In
any case, we`ve added a mentionable slight chance of snow showers
for some of these areas. The southern Poconos have a better chance
at experiencing their first flakes of the season. A light dusting
less than a half inch cannot be ruled out if a lake effect streamer
can stall over the area for long enough.

The strong daytime winds will gradually lessen into Tuesday night,
but will remain around 10-15 mph overnight. With the cessation of
cold advection and winds shifting southwesterly, temperatures won`t
be as cold as the previous night. Lows will range from the upper 20s
to mid 30s, producing wind chills in the 20s for most areas by dawn
Wednesday morning. Skies remaining partly to mostly cloudy.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A tight pressure gradient lingers as the region remains
situated between strong low pressure over the Canadian Maritimes
and strong high pressure over the Southeastern US. As a
result, the main story for Wednesday will be continued breezy
conditions with gusts of 25-30 mph possible. Conditions will be
dry otherwise with highs in the upper 40s to low 50s.

A weak cold front will then move through late Wednesday, though
it looks to remain rather moisture-starved, the best chance for
any light rain or flurries will be across the southern Poconos.
Lows mainly in the mid-upper 30s expected.

With high pressure inching closer Thursday, the pressure
gradient begins to relax, though some gusts of 20-30 mph are
still possible. Temperatures don`t look to change much behind
the weak front, with highs again in the upper 40s to low 50s.
Lows Thursday night look to be cooler though, mainly in the low
30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
High pressure maintains control over the region to end the week
and through the weekend. As a result, mainly dry conditions are
expected. Temperatures on Friday and Saturday look to be near or
just below climo, with highs in the upper 40s to mid 50s.

Temperatures look to warm up to a few degrees above climo on
Sunday as southwest flow returns ahead of the next approaching
system. Chances for rain increase, currently peaking Sunday
night. The cold front associated with the low looks to arrive
late Sunday into Monday but temperatures may remain above normal
for the daytime on Monday depending on the timing of the front.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Through 00Z...Any MVFR ceilings will lift to VFR by 00Z. NW winds
will remain around 10-15 kts, with gusts near 20-25 kts. High
confidence.

Tonight...VFR ceilings should eventually scatter out some overnight.
NW winds shifting more westerly around 06Z around 10-15 kts with
gusts near 20 kts possible at times. High confidence.

Tuesday...VFR ceilings. Slight chance of a brief snow shower or
flurries at ABE/RDG/TTN. WNW winds near 20-25 kts with persistent
gusts around 30-35 kts much of the day. Some peak gusts near 40 kts
possible. High confidence.

Tuesday night...VFR ceilings. Westerly winds 15-20 kts with gusts up
to 30 kts early, diminishing to around 10 kts and shifting toward
the southwest between 03Z-06Z. High confidence.

Outlook...

Wednesday and Thursday...VFR. Wind gusts 20-25 knots,
particularly during the daytime hours.

Friday and Saturday...VFR. No significant weather.

&&

.MARINE...
Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for all coastal waters
through tonight. NW winds near 20-30 kts much of the night. Seas 4-6
feet.

Gale Warning remains in effect for all coastal waters beginning
Tuesday morning through the evening. Westerly winds will increase
around daybreak to 25-35 kts with gusts up to 40 kts at times. Seas
4-7 feet.

Winds will diminish some into Tuesday night to around 20-30 kts and
shift toward the southwest after midnight. Seas 3-6 feet. Another
Small Craft Advisory will be needed for all coastal waters once the
Gale Warning has expired.

Outlook...

Wednesday and Thursday...SCA conditions likely (60-70% chance).
West winds gusting around 25-30 kts. Seas 4 to 7 feet Wednesday
diminish to 3 to 5 feet Thursday.

Friday and Saturday...SCA conditions possible (10-20% chance).
WNW winds gusting to around 20 kts.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ430-431-
     450>455.
     Gale Warning from 6 AM to 8 PM EST Tuesday for ANZ430-431.
     Gale Warning from 6 AM Tuesday to midnight EST Tuesday night
     for ANZ450>455.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AKL/MJL
NEAR TERM...Staarmann
SHORT TERM...AKL
LONG TERM...AKL
AVIATION...AKL/Staarmann
MARINE...AKL/Staarmann