


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pendleton, OR
Issued by NWS Pendleton, OR
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988 FXUS66 KPDT 180527 AFDPDT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pendleton OR 1027 PM PDT Fri Oct 17 2025 .Updated Aviation Discussion. .AVIATION...06Z TAFS...VFR conditions currently across all sites, which will stay the course through the period. Winds have decreased and will stay below 10 kts at all terminals through Saturday evening. Clear skies persist Saturday morning, but increasing clouds associated with an incoming system will drop ceilings to 15-20 kft in the evening. Light rain is also expected to occur at KYKM toward the end of the period. 75 && PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 235 PM PDT Fri Oct 17 2025/ DISCUSSION... Key Points.... 1. Cold front through today bringing light rain and breezy gap winds 2. Brief dry period Friday night into Saturday afternoon 3. Upper level low and surface cold front Saturday night through Monday morning will bring increased chances of precipitation and winds. 4. Upper level ridging will return Monday afternoon and persist through Thursday. Rest of Today through Saturday afternoon...A wind advisory has been issued for Kittitas Valley with current ground observations already showing sustained winds over 30 mph and gusts to 40 mph through the valley. Current satellite shows partly cloudy skies across much of the region with some stratus lingering over the Cascade crests and Blues. Ground observations as well as webcams show the I-90 corridor receiving some light precipitation that will continue through the majority of the afternoon and evening as the front continues to push across. Behind the cold front moving across the region, a dry air mas will make its way across the region late this afternoon and early evening. A weak ridge will build in behind drying out the region and allowing winds to settle overnight and through much of Saturday. Climate compare shows that the southern portion of the region, mainly central/n central OR and portions of the Ochoco-John Day Highlands will see above average temperatures (5-10 degrees) above seasonal average while much of the WA portions will see temperatures be at to below average (0 to -5 degrees). Raw ensembles show 70-90% probabilities of central OR (Bend/Redmond/Madras/Prineville), John- Day Basin and some isolated areas along the foothills of the southern and northern Blues will see temperatures in the mid to upper 60 degrees while the mid elevations and much of the WA portion of the zones will see temperatures in the upper 50 to low 60 degree range. Winds will be light and variable as well. Saturday afternoon, models as well as ensemble guidance show firm agreement in the movement of the upper level low and surface cold front off the northern coast making its way across the region. This system will bring increased chances of precipitation and high mountain snow. QPF amounts along the crests are expected to range between 0.50-0.80 inches with 70-80% probabilities and the Blues and Wallowas seeing between 0.30-0.50 inches. For the foothills and the east slopes, 60-80% probabilities of those areas seeing between 0.10- 0.25 inches of precipitation and the remaining elevations seeing 0.01- 0.07 inches. Model guidance also shows the surface cold front will tighten the pressure gradients along the Cascades and the Northern Blues. These areas will see elevated winds with NBM ensembles showing the Gorge, Simcoe-Highlands in Klickitat County, foothills of the S. Blues through Boardman & N. Blues around the Dayton area seeing 50% to 75% probabilities of sustained winds near 25-30 mph and 25-45% probabilities gusts of 35 to 40 mph. Confidence in the issuance of a wind advisory for the aforementioned areas for Sunday is moderate (50-60%). Monday through Thursday...Moderate to high confidence in the models showing ridging moving back in over the region by Monday afternoon. This will bring dry conditions and warmer temperatures through the week. Models are in decent agreement with the movement of the trough to the east and the ridge settling in behind. However, clusters show a bit of a timing lag between the models. 90 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... PDT 35 63 45 61 / 0 10 50 70 ALW 39 62 48 61 / 0 10 70 80 PSC 33 60 47 64 / 0 10 50 40 YKM 34 57 40 61 / 0 10 60 40 HRI 35 61 47 64 / 0 10 40 50 ELN 31 53 36 58 / 0 20 80 40 RDM 28 71 41 58 / 0 0 20 40 LGD 31 65 45 58 / 0 0 40 80 GCD 31 69 45 59 / 0 0 20 40 DLS 40 63 48 64 / 0 10 70 70 && .PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...None. WA...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...90 LONG TERM....90 AVIATION...75