Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pendleton, OR
Issued by NWS Pendleton, OR
598 FXUS66 KPDT 060016 AFDPDT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pendleton OR 516 PM PDT Tue Aug 5 2025 .AVIATION...00Z TAFs...While VFR conditions are forecast through the valid period for all sites, widespread mid- to high-level cloud cover is forecast for all sites overnight through Wednesday. DLS/YKM have the best chances (60-70%) of -RA Wednesday morning, with lower (10-20%) chances through Wednesday afternoon elsewhere. Confidence in sub-VFR conditions is low (<30%). Winds will be both diurnally and synoptically driven. Plunkett/86 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 152 PM PDT Tue Aug 5 2025/ DISCUSSION...Current conditions show clouds clearing out in the early afternoon. Temperatures warmed up a little bit thanks to the clearing pattern over the region. RH levels in the Warm Springs Reservation are lower than previously thought with winds reaching criteria. Given that, we issued a Red Flag Warning for the ORZ703 until 8PM this evening. Not expecting anymore red flags for today, however the Basin (ORZ691) is inching near Red Flag status. Localized pockets might reach criteria, but nothing widespread enough to issue RFW`s. Fire weather conditions are not as conducive through the middle of the week, going close to the weekend. Expect the next couple of days to be more cloudy, cooler, and rainier as a shortwave digs down from the Gulf of Alaska/British Columbia shoreline. This pattern will bring mainly stratiform rain showers through the Basin and much of the mountain zones. Chances of some scattered thunderstorms (15-25% chance) go up for parts of the WA Cascades, with peak storm intensity in the early to mid afternoon hours. The trough will become more amplified going into Thursday, spreading rain chances for much of the Basin, Kittitas Valley, and large portions of the Eastern Mountains. Largest CAPE values, according to the NBM, are located in Wallowa County and portions of Eastern Washington (200-400 J/KG). This is where the strongest storms are expected going through Thursday. Can`t rule out the possibility that some of these storms produce pea size hail with gusty outflow winds. The pattern will flip to a dry, warmer scenario as ridging re- enters the picture. High temperatures will gradually warm into the low to mid 90s from Saturday to Tuesday. A little uncertain about exact details of how warm it will get due to uncertainty of the strength of the ridge. Clusters form a disagreement on this issue with 47% bringing on a stronger ridge along with warmer temperatures, while 21% actually bring cooler temperatures. Fire weather concerns return regardless over the weekend into early next week, as dry and breezy conditions make our southern fire weather zones more susceptible to elevated fire concerns. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... PDT 60 81 59 79 / 0 10 20 30 ALW 65 81 62 78 / 0 10 20 40 PSC 62 84 59 81 / 0 20 20 20 YKM 63 80 54 78 / 20 50 30 20 HRI 63 84 61 82 / 0 10 20 20 ELN 60 76 53 73 / 20 60 40 20 RDM 51 80 49 77 / 0 10 10 10 LGD 54 79 56 75 / 0 10 20 40 GCD 53 81 54 78 / 0 10 10 20 DLS 64 79 61 77 / 20 60 30 10 && .PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM PDT this evening for ORZ703. WA...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...95 LONG TERM....95 AVIATION...86