592
FXUS66 KPDT 052346
AFDPDT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pendleton OR
446 PM PDT Sat Oct 5 2024

Updated aviation discussion

.SHORT TERM...Today through Monday night...

Key Messages:

1. Dry and warming trend continues into next week.

2. Locally breezy winds for southern zones Sunday.

Current radar and visible satellite imagery showing dry conditions
under clear skies as upper level ridging and surface high pressure
dominate the Pacific Northwest. The upper level ridge does shift
slightly to the east this evening to provide southwest flow aloft
and slightly warmer morning temperatures on Sunday. This eastward
shift continues into the week. Afternoon temperatures today have
reached into the low 70s across the Basin, which is above normal
as highs increase another 3 to 6 degrees Sunday and another 2 to 5
degrees on Monday. afternoon humidities will be on the decline
into Sunday, especially over our southern zones, as a return to
mid-teens is expected across Central Oregon through Monday.
Overnight recoveries will also be decreasing into the mid-30s at
elevation over the Ochocos and in the upper 30s to low 40s through
the Blues.

An upper level embedded shortwave will pass through the area from
the southwest midday on Sunday, allowing for breezy winds to
develop through the morning and afternoon with gusts up to 20 mph
possible across Central Oregon. Confidence is low (20%) in these
gusts reaching 20 mph or greater as the NBM advertises a 10-30%
chance of this occurring. Chances of gusts reaching 20 mph on
Monday is evening lower (10%) with the NBM only showing a 5 to 15%
chance over the extreme southern portion of our forecast area.
There is a chance of showers late Monday evening along the
Washington Cascades as a weak shortwave skirts the area.



.LONG TERM...Tuesday through Saturday...

Southwesterly flow begins Tuesday with low precip chances at the WA
Cascades. These chances will continue into Wednesday, extending
southward to the crest of OR Cascades with a weak front moving
through the flow. Wednesday evening into night, breezy winds will
develop up to 20 mph at the Kittitas valley and the eastern CR Gorge
(50-60% probability).

The ridge will then start breaking down Thursday morning with the
shortwave trough arriving to the forecast area off OR coast. Given
the ongoing southwesterly flow and a front, showers could develop at
the WA/OR Cascades and the Blues in the morning hours, and then
across the Blues in the nighttime hours (15-30% chance). Winds might
become breezy Thursday night as the trough moves closer, but chances
are very low (<20%).

The shortwave trough will move over to the region Friday, bringing
slight chances of showers through majority of the forecast area (15-
30% chance). Afternoon breezes could develop up to 20 mph or less
for Simcoe Highlands and central OR with a 20-40% probability,
suggested by NBM. Showers will start to decrease Friday night as the
trough moves out of the area.

Saturday, a upper ridge will arrive to the PacNW with light winds
and dry conditions returning. High temperatures will remain above
normal through the period. Feaster/97


&&

.AVIATION...00Z TAFS...VFR conditions with mainly clear skies
prevail through this TAF period. Winds will be light and
variable overnight and then less than 10kts Sunday.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  39  73  44  78 /   0   0   0   0
ALW  42  74  47  79 /   0   0   0   0
PSC  43  75  46  76 /   0   0   0   0
YKM  40  74  42  76 /   0   0   0   0
HRI  42  75  45  77 /   0   0   0   0
ELN  40  73  40  77 /   0   0   0   0
RDM  38  81  41  82 /   0   0   0   0
LGD  41  79  44  82 /   0   0   0   0
GCD  45  82  46  84 /   0   0   0   0
DLS  44  79  46  83 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...75
LONG TERM....97
AVIATION...97