Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pendleton, OR
Issued by NWS Pendleton, OR
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
201 FXUS66 KPDT 060952 AFDPDT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pendleton OR 252 AM PDT Sun Oct 6 2024 .SHORT TERM...Today through Tuesday...High pressure ridging will give way to light SW flow aloft today heading into Monday, making for benign weather with unusually warm temps looking to persist throughout the period and beyond. This will unfortunately work to prolong what has already been a historic fire weather season for our forecast area, with no season-ending event really in site, but fortunately critical conditions are not anticipated this week, as the overall synoptic pattern is not conducive for any kind of particularly windy day soon. The SW flow, in fact, should work to slowly increase RHs over the coming week. A weak upper-level wave embedded within the flow aloft may produce some locally breezy conditions across central Oregon this afternoon, however sustained winds are well below critical thresholds, so these winds should really only have minor impacts for ongoing incidents in the area. By late Monday into Tuesday, the SW flow becomes more pronounced, allowing for a chance of orographic showers across the Cascades. These shower chances will be persistent through the remainder of the work week, however QPF is anticipated to be on the lighter end until a more organized wave is expected to move through the PacNW sometime around the start of next weekend. Evans/74 .LONG TERM...Southwesterly flow will prevail on Wednesday, with a front bringing some moisture, mainly to the Cascades. Much of Thursday looks to be dry, before a trough approaches the west coast Friday and moves across the region into Saturday. There is considerable uncertainty with respect to the depth of this trough, with the ECMWF deterministic being deeper than the GFS. Some showers can be expected across the area, though QPF remains light, and ultimately where and how much will depend on the strength and position of the trough as it moves across the region. The ensemble clusters do not favor the stronger ECMWF solution through Saturday, with 37% of the clusters supporting the GFS solution. Of course, natural variability in any model solution comes in to play at day 6. Winds look to be relatively light across the area through the period, except for Wednesday, when diurnal gusts are possible upwards of 20 to 25 mph in the normally favored locations. NBM probabilities of wind gusts >= 25 mph on Wednesday are generally 60 to 80% across the Columbia Basin, SImcoe Highlands, Yakima Valley and close to 90% in the Kittitas Valley. However, probabilities of wind gusts >= 39 mph are generally less then 30 percent in most locations though the Kittitas Valley approaches 40-50%. High temperatures will average 7 to 10 degrees above normal on Wednesday, mainly in the low to mid 70s...then close to normal for the remainder of the week, behind the frontal passage. && .AVIATION...12Z TAFS...VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Winds will generally be 10 kts or less. However, both BDN and RDM could have some afternoon/early evening wind gusts in the 15 to 20 kt range, before decreasing to 10 kts or less. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... PDT 73 44 78 46 / 0 0 0 0 ALW 74 48 79 49 / 0 0 0 0 PSC 75 46 77 47 / 0 0 0 0 YKM 73 43 77 44 / 0 0 0 0 HRI 75 45 78 46 / 0 0 0 0 ELN 73 40 76 46 / 0 0 0 0 RDM 81 42 82 42 / 0 0 0 0 LGD 78 44 81 46 / 0 0 0 0 GCD 82 46 84 46 / 0 0 0 0 DLS 79 46 83 50 / 0 0 0 0 && .PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...None. WA...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...74 LONG TERM....77 AVIATION...77