678
FNUS71 KPBZ 052219
FWSPBZ

Spot Forecast for Cherry Tree Wildfire...PA DCNR
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
519 PM EST Tue Nov 5 2024

Forecast is based on forecast start time of 1800 EST on November 05.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...

.REST OF TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Clear (0-10 percent) then becoming mostly
                    cloudy (60-70 percent) then becoming partly
                    cloudy (35-45 percent) then becoming mostly
                    cloudy (70-80 percent). Slight chance of
                    showers after 3 am. Showers likely after 3 am,
                    then chance of showers early in the morning.
Chance of pcpn......60 percent.
LAL.................1.
Min temperature.....Around 59.
Max humidity........100 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 5 to 9 mph. Gusts up to 22 mph
                    early in the evening then 24 mph early in the
                    evening.
Mixing height.......700 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 13 to 18 mph.
LVORI...............4.
ADI.................6 to 16.
Haines Index........3...or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (EST)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........2   2   3   7   3   3   64  42  76  59  90  95
Weather cov.....                                    SCH LKY CHC
Weather type....                                    RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   10  20  60  40
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............69  66  64  64  63  63  62  62  61  60  61  61
RH..............70  74  77  77  81  83  83  86  89  89  86  87
20 FT wind dir..S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   SW
20 FT wind spd..6   5   6   6   7   7   7   7   8   8   9   8
20 FT wind gust.18  14  16  18  16  17  18  17  18  18  18  19
Mix hgt (kft)...0.8 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.9
Transp wind dir.S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   SW  SW  SW  SW
Transp wind spd.13  13  14  16  16  17  18  18  18  17  18  18
LVORI...........3   3   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   5   4   4
ADI.............6   6   6   11  11  12  16  16  16  15  16  16
Haines index....3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3

.WEDNESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy (85-95 percent). Rain showers in the
                    morning, then chance of rain showers in the
                    afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......90 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 69.
Min humidity........84 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 5 to 9 mph with gusts to around
                    19 mph becoming light.
Mixing height.......1900 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 13 to 18 mph shifting to the west
                    around 8 mph late in the afternoon.
LVORI...............5.
ADI.................10 to 34.
Haines Index........3...or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (EST)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........95  97  96  96  91  93  91  89  89  89  80  85
Weather cov.....LKY DEF LKY CHC SCH CHC CHC CHC SCH SCH
Weather type....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).70  90  70  50  20  40  50  30  20  20  10  10
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............59  59  59  62  64  65  66  67  69  69  68  66
RH..............95  99  100 100 100 97  94  93  86  84  86  90
20 FT wind dir..SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  W   W   W   W
20 FT wind spd..8   8   8   8   8   8   7   6   6   6   5   4
20 FT wind gust.18  19  19  18  18  17  16  14  14  13  11  10
Mix hgt (kft)...0.9 1.0 1.5 1.5 1.7 1.9 1.8 1.8 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.0
Transp wind dir.SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  W   W   W   W
Transp wind spd.16  18  18  18  17  18  17  18  17  15  13  8
LVORI...........5   5   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   5
ADI.............19  23  30  30  31  34  31  34  33  27  22  10
Haines index....3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3

$$
Forecaster...SKH
Requested by...Jay Lindemuth
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2425867.0/PBZ
.DELDT 11/05/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL jalindemut@pa.gov