107
FXUS61 KPBZ 220859
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
359 AM EST Sat Nov 22 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Probability of rain remains elevated through dawn. Mild
conditions are likely this weekend and into early next week.
Colder conditions expected Thursday into Friday with a passing
front. Snow chances may return Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:

-Rain chances will decrease between 6am and 9am this morning
-Temperatures near average today

---------------------------------------------------------------

Light rain continues across much of the region early this
morning as a low pressure system moves through the Ohio River
Valley. GOES-19 water vapor imagery shows dry air advancing from
the west, which should reduce both the coverage and intensity of
rain over the next 6 hours. The probability of measurable
precipitation drop sharply between 6am and 9am as the low shifts
southeast and surface dew points fall into the 30s behind a
front. A few light showers may persist south of I-70 late this
morning due to weak upslope flow along the ridges.

CLoud cover is expected to gradually diminish between 11am and
2pm as subsidence increases. However, areas near I-80 may hold
onto more cloudiness under northerly flow off Lake Erie.
Otherwise, temperatures will hover near seasonal averages today.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Passing low over the Great Lakes may return isolated rain
  showers north of Pittsburgh early Sunday
- Below freezing temperatures Sunday night
----------------------------------------------------------------


A ridge over the Ohio River Valley is expected to weaken late
this evening as a new disturbance moves into the Great Lakes.
Lake-enhanced precipitation chances will increase after 9am
Sunday, mainly for areas north of I-80 and along the ridges, as
winds shift from southwest to northeast. Light rain showers may
persist into the early afternoon, through their extent will
depend on how quickly a ridge strengthens to our west. Rainfall
totals are expected to remain below one-tenth of an inch.

Clear, calm conditions will allow for efficient radiational
cooling overnight, likely sending temperatures below freezing
Sunday night. Probability of MinT temperatures below 32 degrees
is greater than 70 percent.


&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Quiet and dry Monday
- Rain chances return early Tuesday and continue into Wednesday
- Colder conditions Thanksgiving and into the weekend
- Lake-effect snow potential late Thursday into Friday
-------------------------------------------------------------------

Confidence remains high that Monday will feature quiet, dry
weather under high pressure, with afternoon temperatures holding
near climatological average.

A new low pressure system is forecast to develop along the
Rockies and track eastward, eventually phasing with a trough
over the Midwest. This will bring rain chances back early
Tuesday into the region. Long-range guidance shows a band of
mid-level dry air spreading from the Great Plains into the Ohio
River Valley early Tuesday afternoon, which should limit
rainfall totals. Amounts are expected to remain modest,
generally between one-tenth and three-tenths of an inch through
early Wednesday.

A pattern shift appears likely mid-week, with over 70% of long-
range ensemble guidance supporting the development of a stronger
ridge along the West Coast and the arrival of colder air
associated with a passing trough over the Great Lakes. As a
result, temperatures are expected to fall below climatological
averages on Thursday and remain lower into the holiday weekend.
Depending on boundary-layer wind trajectories over the Great
Lakes Thursday into Friday, lake-effect snow could develop in
parts of the region.


&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Widespread IFR, with pockets of LIFR, are expected through early
this morning as rain tracks across the region on the northern
side of crossing low pressure. Low level moisture in place
should maintain IFR, with some patchy drizzle possible, as the
main area of rain ends. Conditions are expected to improve
through MVFR, to VFR by early to mid afternoon with mixing and
dry advection in NW flow.

Mid and high clouds are then expected to increase tonight as a
cold front approaches from the western Great Lakes region.

Outlook...
Patchy MVFR cigs are possible Sunday north of PIT with the
crossing cold front. Otherwise, VFR is expected as high pressure
builds across the region through Monday night. Restriction and
rain potential returns Tuesday with a warm front, followed by a
Wednesday cold front.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Hefferan
NEAR TERM...Hefferan
SHORT TERM...Hefferan
LONG TERM...Hefferan
AVIATION...WM