557
FXUS61 KPBZ 271730
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
130 PM EDT Thu Mar 27 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry today with moderating temperatures. The warm up will
continue through the weekend. Shower and storm chances return
Friday through Sunday. The best day for widespread storms is
Sunday evening. Once the system moves out of the region late on
Monday, dry and cooler conditions are expected through Wednesday
morning.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Marginal fire weather conditions this afternoon.
- Warmer temperatures and a dry atmosphere.
- Gusty winds up to 20-25 mph this afternoon.
-------------------------------------------------------------------

Broad surface high pressure over the Mid-Atlantic region today
which will increase low level subsidence. This setup will mean
lots of sun for most of the day and temperatures rising above
seasonal averages. As the high moves southeastward today, expect
winds to pick-up this afternoon with gusts up to 20-25 mph and
clouds start to building in.

A combination of dry and gusty conditions this afternoon across
Western Pennsylvania will create an elevated risk of rapid fire
spread the afternoon, which led to the issuance of a Special
Weather Statement through 7PM this evening. Minimum relative
humidity are forecast to range between 20%-30%, however, surface
fuel moisture remain marginal.

Tonight, winds are expected to ease and conditions are expected to
remain dry through tomorrow morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:


- Rain chances increase Friday as a warm front passes.
- Temperatures continue to warm.
- Threat for rain continues on Saturday.
-------------------------------------------------------------------

A warm front will begin to move northward through the region Friday
morning, finally clearing the area by late in the day. Showers are
expected to accompany the front as it drifts through the region
during the afternoon. An isolated thunderstorm cannot be ruled out
although atmospheric instability will be marginal. Warmer air will
surge northward on the southern flank of the front and push high
temperatures up to 10 degrees above normal.

As the front continues to move northward Friday night, shower
chances will decrease, with the area expected to be rain free
shortly after midnight.

The risk for scattered showers continues on Saturday afternoon as a
shortwave trough crosses the region in the zonal flow aloft. There
is some uncertainty with the sky cover which is causing a wider
spread of possible high temperatures on Saturday, which could be up
to 15-20 degrees above normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Rain and storm chances Sunday with above average
  temperatures.
- A cool-down is most likely heading into next week.
- Gradual warming trend expected to start Wednesday.
-------------------------------------------------------------------

The most recent guidance continues to show the onset time of the
main cold frontal passage late Sunday/ early Monday morning. The
probability for severe weather Sunday evening is expected to drop as
we go later into the nighttime due to the loss of daytime heating.

By Monday, there is uncertainty with how much rain a secondary low
will bring. Amongst the ensembles, there is up to 0.35-0.45
inch differences between the 25th and 75th percentiles. Once the
system moves out of the region late on Monday, dry and cooler
conditions are expected through Wednesday morning. From
Wednesday to Friday, expect a gradual warming trend with
temperatures well above normal.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR conditions will continue this afternoon and evening as
surface ridging departs the area. Some cumulus may be seen,
especially southwest of PIT, but these should remain scattered
in nature due to the very dry boundary layer. Mid and upper clouds
are forecast to increase during the late afternoon and evening
ahead of an approaching warm front. Westerly wind gusts of
around 20 knots are expected this afternoon during peak heating.

Thickening and lowering clouds are forecast towards morning as
the warm front rides up the Ohio Valley. Have at least MVFR
ceilings by the end of the TAF period at most terminals - HREF
probabilities of such generally increase into the 50 to 80
percent range by 18Z. Rain will arrive after 12Z as well, but
the dry boundary layer will inhibit precipitation from reaching
the ground initially, and rain should generally be non-
restrictive. Wind is expected to remain 10 knots or less after
sunrise Friday, with direction backing towards south/southeast.

Outlook...
Rain and restriction potential increase Friday afternoon as the
warm front crosses the Upper Ohio Valley. Restrictions and
showers are possible Saturday, before showers and thunderstorms
become likely Sunday with crossing low pressure.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...22/Lupo
NEAR TERM...Lupo
SHORT TERM...22/Lupo
LONG TERM...Lupo
AVIATION...CL