469
FXUS61 KPBZ 241238
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
838 AM EDT Sun Aug 24 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Isolated showers and storms are possible primarily east of
Pittsburgh on Sunday as a cold front passes through the region.
A prolonged cool and drier pattern is expected to set in
beginning Monday with below normal temperatures through the
entirety of the work week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Scattered showers/storms associated with a cold front
- Last day of 80s through at least mid-week
---------------------------------------------------------------

Mid-level height falls continue today as a seasonably anomalous
closed upper low hovers well off to our north in Canada and its
longwave trough rotates through. With it, surface low pressure
will drag a cold front through the area locally that will be
responsible for development of afternoon showers and
thunderstorms. The best coverage still looks to be east of
Pittsburgh, and really along and east of the Appalachians in
proximity to the front. From Pittsburgh and west, minimal precip
is expected at all in the post-frontal environment.

Cloud coverage is likely to scatter out in the morning, and brief
moisture return in southwest flow will push dew points back into the
mid to upper 60s. PWATs don`t look to climb very high remaining
around 1.2-1.4" and decreasing at the expense of increasing DCAPE
throughout the day as column flow gradually veers to the northwest.
CAMs waver on the thermodynamic profile with different resolutions
of a warm layer in the mid-levels that could result in a similar
looking day to Saturday with convection struggling to grow very
tall. Progged MLCAPE is not great around 300-600 J/kg with ensemble
mean deep layer shear around 20 knots and not increasing until late
as the belt of enhanced mid-level flow sinks south. All told,
coverage again will be scattered and pose a limited severe weather
risk.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Cooler temperatures settle in behind a cold front
- Lake effect showers possible along and north of I-80
----------------------------------------------------------------

Rain chances over the ridges gradually decrease tonight into
early Monday morning in the wake of the cold front. Northwest
winds and cold advection over Lake Erie may support lingering
lake-effect shower activity through Monday over northwest PA and
northeast OH, with current probabilities in the 20-30 percent
range generally along and north of the I-80 corridor. Otherwise,
dry conditions return to much of the area. We see a rather
dramatic drop in temperature behind this front as lows tonight
dip into the 50s and highs Monday stay in the low to mid 70s.
Ensemble probabilities show a 50-70% chance that the ridges and
some locations north of I-80 fail to reach 70 degrees.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- High confidence in cooler weather through mid week
- On Tuesday, rain showers are possible mainly north of
  Pittsburgh with northwesterly flow off the Great Lakes.
-------------------------------------------------------------------

High confidence in the weather pattern persists through much of
the coming week, as ridging amplifies in the western CONUS and
broad troughing lingers in the eastern CONUS. The cooler airmass
that settles in to the local area as a result is highly likely
to support the development of lake-effect showers Tuesday,
predominantly limited to areas north and northeast of Pittsburgh
with the highest rain chances along/north of I-80.

Later in the week, variances related to the broad pattern are tied
to the eventual amplitude of the CONUS-scale ridge/trough pattern.
There is the potential for a shortwave trough to advance
through the northwesterly flow aloft into the Great Lakes region
around Wed evening. However, ensemble means keep the area dry
with low or no rain chances in the forecast Wed-Sat and temps
gradually warming back to near seasonal normals.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Areas of fog or low stratus will gradually return to VFR by late
morning. Storm chances return again this afternoon with a cold
front; cig and vis restrictions are likely with any storm that
impacts a terminal, but confidence on timing and spatial impacts
remains low at this juncture. Added in PROB30 groups at LBE/DUJ
after 21z when most of the latest CAMs initiate development
thunderstorms are also possible at AGC/MGW. Gradient wind picks up
to 5-10 knots out of the west/southwest by late morning before
veering more northwesterly behind the front.

By this evening, precipitation should be east of the region. Clouds
will scatter out and terminals will be VFR. Tomorrow morning, there
is a small probability (20%-30%) for some fog to bring IFR
visibility to DUJ/FKL/ZZV.

.OUTLOOK...
Cool air aloft could result in patchy MVFR cig restrictions north of
PIT Monday and Tuesday along with isolated lake enhanced
showers.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Cermak/MLB
NEAR TERM...MLB
SHORT TERM...Cermak/Kramar/Lupo
LONG TERM...Cermak/Kramar/Lupo
AVIATION...MLB/Lupo