


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pittsburgh, PA
Issued by NWS Pittsburgh, PA
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940 FXUS61 KPBZ 030006 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 806 PM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Storms could be severe tonight into tomorrow. Multiple days of rain will lead to river rises and localized flooding concerns. A Flood Watch remains in effect for eastern Ohio. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... KEY MESSAGES: - Another round of thunderstorms, possibly severe, overnight tonight with a squall line - A Flood Watch is in effect for portions of eastern Ohio. ------------------------------------------------------------------- A cluster of showers and isolated storms has dissolved this evening with the exit of the warm front. Weak forcing within the warm sector will keep convection low through midnight. With strong warm advection from the southwest, expect temperatures to rise slightly despite the loss of surface heating. Showers and thunderstorms will move through overnight as a cold front and shortwave trough approach from the west. Arrival of the disturbance in eastern Ohio/northwest PA is projected for midnight to 2am timeframe. The potential for severe storms increases along a pre- frontal trough with a squall line moving across Ohio with upscale growth supported by paralleling deep layer southwesterly flow. Again though, we look to be in a setup where the storms will move in locally in an unfavorable diurnal timing window for surface- based instability; HREF probability for >100 J/kg of SBCAPE doesn`t exceed 20% in our area overnight with a warm nose extending up to 850 mb. CAM point soundings suggest some more MUCAPE (potentially up to 750 J/kg) available atop the low level warm nose. Shear will not be an issue with a low level jet maximum nearing 70 knots at 850 mb, and thus the 0-3 km shear values are progged in excess of 40 knots with deep layer shear nearing 60 knots. What this all means is that there`s again a conditional probability, dependent on storms being surface based, for damaging wind and an embedded tornado given the low level shear parameters and veering in the lowest few km. The segments of the line to pay close attention to would be those oriented more northwest to southeast to best ingest the available low level shear. Should the storms be elevated, though, threats would likely be limited to small hail and heavy rain. SPC has maintained the Slight Risk (2/5) west of I-79 and a Marginal Risk (1/5) farther east. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/... KEY MESSAGES: - Showers and thunderstorms continue through the rest of the work week as a front stalls near the local area. - Some storms could be severe on Thursday. - A Flood Watch remains in effect for portions of eastern Ohio. ------------------------------------------------------------------- The forward progress of the front is expected to slow and stall on Thursday as the upper level flow establishes out of the southwest and transports anomalously high (+3 to 4 standard deviations) precipitable water into the region. Uncertainty in the exact position of the front exists, which will impact areas where convergence is strongest and heavy rain falls, and also which areas have the potential for severe storms. At this time, the southern half of the area (especially south of I-70) is favored for having a more conducive environment for organized deep convection and severe potential on Thursday, but there will likely be some wiggle room as models still try to pin down the placement of the boundary. This threat continues to be highlighted by SPC with a Slight Risk (2/5) which has been pulled south of the Mason-Dixon Line while a Marginal Risk (1/5) extends up to US-422. CAPE profiles look to be taking on a taller and skinnier look with deep saturation and a weakening low level wind field, so the severe threat may be limited to small hail and gusty wind with heavy rain. HREF probs are around 50-70% for another half an inch, but could be locally higher in heavier thunderstorms. The front is progged to drift south of the area late Thursday or Thursday night, which will lead to a decrease in POPs from north to south during that time as the primary axis of showers and thunderstorms shifts south of the Mason-Dixon line. This is also the window when the strongest upper forcing for large-scale ascent exits the region, further supporting a brief decrease in heavy rain and thunderstorm potential (especially north of I-70) during the day Friday. Yet another surface low is then expected to track NE out of the Mississippi Valley region Friday night, pushing the front back north this time as a warm front. Showers and thunderstorms once again increase in coverage as the front and surface low move across the Upper Ohio Valley region Friday night into early Saturday. Amounts through the day on Saturday look to be highest from Pittsburgh and north with forcing along the warm front and enhanced convergence on the nose of an impinging 850 mb jet. We`ll briefly reside in the warm sector before the cold front comes through in the latter half of the day bringing yet another enhancement in rain coverage along it. The severe weather potential should be limited due to weak instability, however with repeated rounds of heavy rain and a saturated ground, flooding potential will increase, especially with rises on area rivers. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... KEY MESSAGES: - Showers/thunderstorms with potential for heavy rainfall continue this weekend. - A cold front moves through Sunday finally bringing an end to the heavy rainfall. - Colder next week with lighter rain/snow chances each day. ------------------------------------------------------------------- Showers and thunderstorms continue Saturday night as the surface low tracks through the area, yet is still unable to effectively move the stalled frontal boundary. Ensembles suggest another heavier period of rain on the nose of another low level jet Saturday night into Sunday morning falling on a then very saturated ground. However, ensemble clusters all agree on a deep upper trough swinging across the eastern CONUS on Sunday into Monday which will finally shunt the surface ridge that had been firmly planted over the southeast CONUS coast and allow a cold front to advance through the area and off to the east bringing an end to the heavy rain and storm potential. There`s some discrepancy in the timing of the upper pattern and how quickly the trough axis arrives with the cluster dominated by the GEPS suggesting a slower cessation of the rain in the Monday morning hours. The upper trough is then expected to persist across the NE CONUS early next week, resulting in temperatures dipping to below normal values and daily rain/snow chances, albeit not nearly as intense as what we`re experiencing this week. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Residual showers and isolated thunderstorms ahead of an 850mb warm front are expected to decay under the influence of broader subsidence 2-3 hours after TAF issuance. VFR with 4-8kft ceilings are expected through 06z within the warm sector of an incoming low pressure system; development of a strong ~50kt llvl jet is likely to remain above the inversion (and llws height threshold) but enough sub-inversion mixing may foster SSE gusts between 20-30kts. A well-developed QLCS complex of showers/thunderstorms will weaken as the enter the region after 06z, but uncertainty is fairly high on initial intensity as it reaches ZZV and its ability to maintain through western PA. TAFs noted that a likely brief wind shift out of the west will occur with the line before southerly synoptic winds prevail; thunderstorm intensity will dictate if higher speeds can occur (more likely at ZZV and trending down eastward). Stagnation of the cold front driving the convective system is likely somewhere near/south of KPIT, which may allow for a brief period of MVFR cigs as moisture converges on the stationary boundary. Brief dry weather and mixing will improve cigs 12z-18z before additional shortwave movement aloft and any trailing sfc boundary offers lower probability showers. Timing of these showers and a more potent upper shortwave Thursday night creates greater variability in precipitation timing and restriction potential. Outlook... The Upper Ohio River Valley will remain positioned between a Central Plains trough and Atlantic ridge that will foster multiple rounds of moderate to locally heavy rain through Monday morning. Timing and shape in each wave remains variable, which may alter the axis of highest precipitation rates and areas of greatest restrictions. Aviation customers should anticipate limited windows of VFR and dry conditions through the period as the pattern favors MVFR/IFR restrictions, heavier rain showers and occasional thunderstorms. A deepening upper trough may overtake the region early next week, shifting towards a colder pattern featuring periodic rain/snow chances and continued ceiling restrictions. && .HYDROLOGY... The potential for heavy rainfall will exist beginning tonight and continuing into Sunday. At this time, areas across Ohio have the potential to see the heaviest rainfall, where a Flood Watch has been issued. Current NBM values indicate a 60 percent chance or greater of at least 2 inches of rain over a 72 hr period in this region. Lesser probabilities exist further east, though a trend up has been noted in the latest ensemble guidance and will need to be monitored for any potential expansion of the flood watch. The exact location of the heaviest rain will depend on the position of a quasi-stationary surface front. Precipitable water is expected to remain elevated through Sunday, with some periodic jet enhanced ascent. Even after the heavy rain potential ends, river levels will likely remain elevated for a few days. Current ensemble river forecast projections also focus the most significant river rises across Ohio. Will monitor further trends for any future adjustments to the watch. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. OH...Flood Watch through Sunday morning for OHZ039-040-048-049- 057>059-068-069. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Hefferan NEAR TERM...Hefferan/MLB SHORT TERM...Cermak/MLB LONG TERM...Cermak/MLB AVIATION...Frazier HYDROLOGY...WM/MLB