382
FXUS61 KPBZ 032337
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
737 PM EDT Sun Aug 3 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Seasonable temperatures will slowly rise through mid week while
high pressure helps to maintain dry weather. Low probability
shower and thunderstorm chances favoring the afternoons return
to the forecast during the late week period.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Seasonably cool and dry
- Localized river valley fog possible after midnight
---------------------------------------------------------------

High pressure and weak flow aloft will continue to support dry
weather across the Upper Ohio River Valley. Probably the most
notable weather-related item is a hazier sky due to the
presence of high altitude wildfire smoke; no surface impacts are
expected tonight. You can visit airnow.gov for more
information.

Another clear sky night with light wind will favor strong
radiational cooling that lends to localized river valley fog.
Further drying of the near-surface air may limit degree of
development, but strong land/water temperature differences this
time of year are likely to suffice.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Dry and seasonable weather continues.
----------------------------------------------------------------

Temperatures will be slightly warmer than observed today as
ridging continues to build across the region, however, with
dewpoints remaining in the 50s, conditions will remain
relatively comfortable to start off the week.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Low probability showers/storms return during the second half
  of the week
- Pattern shift later in the weekend
-------------------------------------------------------------------

Latest ensemble guidance shows a slight chance of showers
returning midweek as upper trough moves into the eastern CONUS.
Moisture is relatively limited and largely in the mid levels, do
do not expect much in overall QPF. The overall probability for a
half inch or greater over any 48hr period during the second half
of the week is 300% or less (highest to lowest = SE to NW)

A number of models are favoring warm and muggy conditions
returning late week. The NBM 25th percentile depicts
temperatures in the upper-80s/near 90 degrees and dew points
above 65 degrees on Saturday. Machine learning notes a slight
increase in probabilities for thunderstorms Friday into
Saturday. However, the potential of strong to severe storms is
considered very low at the moment.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR likely to prevail for most. High pressure will maintain
milky skies with wildfire smoke through the period with light
surface easterly winds. Patchy valley fog was noted at FKL as a
persistence forecast, otherwise no restrictions are likely.

Winds may pick up some out of the east Monday (generally less
than 10kts), with a chance of few fair weather cu at around
5kft during the afternoon with some advancing high clouds. VFR
will prevail.

Outlook...
High confidence in a prolonged period of VFR through mid-
week save any patchy morning fog.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT Monday night for PAZ008-
     009.
OH...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Frazier
NEAR TERM...Frazier/MLB
SHORT TERM...88
LONG TERM...Hefferan/88
AVIATION...Milcarek