013
FXUS61 KPBZ 280712
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
312 AM EDT Thu Aug 28 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A passing cold front will bring rain showers and few isolated
thunderstorms this evening through early Friday. Conditions then
turn dry and calm, with a gradual warming trend expected through
the Labor Day weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Precipitation chances return after 3pm today
- Rainfall amounts will be light
---------------------------------------------------------------

GOES-19 satellite depicts cirrus clouds passing through portions
of the region this morning. With noted clearing, temperatures
are expected to fall into the 40s due to radiational cooling.
However, the potential for record low temperatures is considered
low.

A cold front currently moving across the Great Lakes is expected
to reach eastern Ohio by late afternoon into early evening. High
resolution soundings indicate mid-level dry air, which may
initially cause precipitation to evaporate before reaching the
surface despite radar echoes. Overall rainfall totals through
midnight will remain light, generally under a quarter of an
inch. A few lightning strikes cannot be ruled out north of
Pittsburgh, where instability is notably higher compared to the
rest of the region due to the influence of Lake Erie`s warmth.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Light rain early Friday morning
- Cool temperatures continue
----------------------------------------------------------------

A few light showers may linger in the ridges and along the I-80
corridor Friday morning with upslope and lake enhancement.
Otherwise, confidence is high that mid-level dry air will
advance into the region from the northwest and diminish the
chances of precipitation between 5am and 9am Friday morning.

With lingering cloud coverage and continuous northwest flow,
expected temperatures to stay below average Friday afternoon.

Potential clearing will help prompt radiational cooling Friday
night and temperatures will once again drop into the 40s.
However, record low temperatures are unlikely.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Quiet and dry Labor Day weekend
- Below average temperatures expected Saturday/Sunday
- Potential for rising temperatures midweek
-------------------------------------------------------------------

Long range guidance agrees that the mature upper-level low
responsible for today`s rain will stall north of New England
through the weekend. Persistent northwest flow aloft will keep
temperatures running slightly below normal during the Labor Day
period. Minus fog, hazardous weather is expected to be low
during this time period.

Model confidence decreases by midweek as a potential trough
develops to our northwest. Around 40% of the model spread is
tied to the strength of this feature, which will ultimately
determine whether temperatures hold near average or rise above
it.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
High pressure and scattered high clouds with light winds will
prevail through the early morning with generally low fog
chances, fractionally highest for ZZV, DUJ, and FKL, but still
too low to note in the 06Z round of TAFS (<30%).

Mixing into a higher pressure gradient today may generate some
westerly afternoon gusts up to 20kts for ports (most likely
north of PIT). A cold front is forecast to cross the region,
mainly tonight, bringing increasing and lowering clouds starting
in the afternoon. Chances of at least MVFR cigs are generally
>60% overnight with IFR more borderline, so did not note for
now. Precipitation and restriction chances are highest at FKL
and DUJ where prevailing -shra groups were noted. Prob30s
denoted uncertainty elsewhere.

.OUTLOOK...
Lingering MVFR/IFR restrictions are possible Friday morning
before mixing and lifting Friday. Labor day weekend is forecast
VFR with high confidence under high pressure.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Hefferan
NEAR TERM...Hefferan
SHORT TERM...Hefferan
LONG TERM...Hefferan
AVIATION...Milcarek