


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pittsburgh, PA
Issued by NWS Pittsburgh, PA
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833 FXUS61 KPBZ 031137 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 737 AM EDT Thu Jul 3 2025 .SYNOPSIS... The region will be under the influence of high pressure through the next few days. Fog development is possible during the morning each day. A trough will drop south into the area bringing a chance of unsettled weather today. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... KEY MESSAGES: - Morning patchy valley fog. - Isolated showers and thunderstorms --------------------------------------------------------------- The area will still be under the influence of high pressure through the day. The morning will begin with some fog potential but will likely dissipate by the 12Z to 14Z timeframe. A trough will sag south through the area by the afternoon and into the evening. This will bring around of showers and thunderstorms to the area. The NBM gives a 30% chance of thunderstorms over the area, mainly over the ridges to the east. The timing for the potential will be between 20Z and 03Z. Initiation seems a bit late in the evening but the SB CAPE isin`t the greatest either with some 50% to 70% NBM probs of 1000 J/Kg. Will highlight this as a sliver of the forecast area is in a Marginal Risk for wind. Heading into the overnight, a lingering shower or storm can`t be ruled out. High pressure will take over again with clearing skies Thursday night. The potential will fog will be present again with the impacts mainly in river valleys. Temperatures are expected to be near normal. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... KEY MESSAGES: - Dry and sunny weather for the Fourth. - Temperatures a few degrees above average. ---------------------------------------------------------------- Sfc high pressure and ridging aloft should promote mainly dry and warm weather again Friday and continue into Saturday. Rising heights and southerly flow should boost area highs into the upper 80s to near 90F. NBM probs for 90F are highest across eastern Ohio, northern West Virginia panhandle, and the Pittsburgh urban heat island (70%-85%). For other areas, probabilities are generally around 35%-45% or lower in the higher elevations. This will highlight the potential on Saturday as the highs for Friday will only make it into the mid 80s. Temperatures are expected to be above normal for the highs and the lows. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... KEY MESSAGES: - Increasingly hot and humid with shower and thunderstorm chances returning Sunday and Monday. - Post frontal rain chances remain on Tuesday and Wednesday. ------------------------------------------------------------------- The ridge is then progged to flatten Sunday into early next week, with westerly flow aloft across the Upper Ohio Valley region. Disturbances embedded in this flow aloft are expected to periodically cross the region, with daily shower and thunderstorm chances returning. On Sunday and Monday, 500 mb heights are still expected to approach 590 dam, bringing hot and humid conditions across the region. High probability (70%-90%) of maximum temperatures at or above 90 degrees on Sunday and Monday. The chances of Heat Advisory criteria remain low as heat indices remain in the 90s. Temperatures are expected to relax for the Tuesday and Wednesday period. This will be due to the passage of a cold front Monday night. This will allow cooler air into the region with the potential of some lingering chances for precip behind the front. There is a lack of confidence with this patterns so the 30% to 40% pops were left in the forecast. && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR conditions prevail throughout the forecast period at most terminals, with a scattered to broken diurnal cu field (cigs generally 5-7kft AGL) developing by late morning. A few isolated showers and storms will be possible this afternoon, mainly east and northeast of Pittsburgh, though a few could also develop across northern West Virginia in the evening. Right now, the only terminal with probabilities worth mentioning in the TAFs is DUJ, where a PROB30 has been maintained to reflect the most likely timing of 18z-22z. Any thunderstorms that do form will be capable of producing strong wind gusts and frequent lightning in addition to local reductions to vis/cigs in heavy downpours. Convection tapers after sunset along with the diurnal cu field, giving way to a quiet and dry night with only some passing high clouds. Patchy fog is possible towards sunrise Friday; included TEMPOs at terminals that currently have the highest probabilities of seeing impacts. Outlook... VFR is expected through Sunday as high pressure moves across the region. Precipitation chances and isolated restrictions return Sunday night into Monday. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. OH...None. WV...None. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. OH...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Shallenberger NEAR TERM...Shallenberger SHORT TERM...Shallenberger LONG TERM...Shallenberger AVIATION...Cermak/AK