556
FXUS61 KPBZ 150803
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
303 AM EST Sat Nov 15 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Fast moving low pressure crossing the Great Lakes tomorrow will
bring increasing warmth and moisture along with the chance of
showers and gusty thunderstorms. Brisk and cooler weather is on
tap for Sunday with northwest-flow showers. Lake Effect snow is
expected north of I-80 Sunday night into Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Mild and breezy today with rain chance increasing
- Spotty thunderstorms with strong wind gusts this evening
- Wind gusts to 50 mph over east Tucker County WV ridges
---------------------------------------------------------------

Robust 500 mb 12 hour height falls of 80 meters today and 170
meters tonight will provide rapid changes in advection over the
next 24 hours. Warm advection and moisture transport will be
strong today in southwest flow ahead of cold front, resulting in
temperatures in the 60s and dew points climbing well into the
50s.

This will permit in marginal instability of 100 j/kg to perhaps
300 j/kg. Wind fields will be strong with plenty of shear so
non- zero chance of strong/severe thunderstorms with gusty winds
especially this evening. Storm Prediction Centers continues a
marginal risk of damaging winds.

NBM 25th percentile QPF is less than 0.10" in Ohio, but is
generally 0.10"-0.20" elsewhere. 75th percentile is mainly
0.25-0.50".

994 mb low over Lake Superior deepens as it heads across
Georgian Bay this evening and eventually the St Lawrence Valley
tonight, reaching 982 mb by Sunday morning. Strong wind fields
at all levels will produce wind gusts up to 30 mph outside of
showers in the lowlands.

Flow turning from West-Southwest to Northwest tonight with
strong pressure rises/cold advection will lead to gusty winds
over the eastern Tucker Ridges, mainly above 3,500 feet. Gave
consideration to High Wind Watch, but settled on a wind advisory
tonight that will continue into Monday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Blustery and colder Sunday, with showers continuing
- Wind gusts to 55 mph over east Tucker County WV ridges
- Probable lake effect snow band late Sunday into Monday north
  of I-80
----------------------------------------------------------------

Cold advection beneath fast NW flow aloft will provide gust
winds in the lowlands of 30 to 35 mph with strong winds
continuing over the east Tucker County WV ridges that won`t
diminish until later Monday morning.

Column cools gradually and guidance is in good agreement in
developing persist lake effect snow band later Sunday into
Monday morning. This band will likely have the Lake Huron
connection and is likely to be close to Forest County PA for
quite a while. 850 mb temps won`t be as cold as the last event,
but will drop to around -8C for a time Sunday night. Currently
expecting 2-5" of snow from northern Venango and Forest into
northern Clarion and Jefferson Counties. A Lake Snow Advisory
will likely be needed for parts of the area north of I-80 as
confidence continues to increase.

Lighter Snow showers are certainly possible down close to the
Pittsburgh area but not expecting much more than a flurry over
the southern half of the forecast area. It appears that dry air
above 850 mb in southern half will prevent snow over the ridges
from Westmoreland County on south into West Virginia.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Active weather pattern continues, favoring seasonably cool
  temperature early week
- Warming to above normal mid to late week
-------------------------------------------------------------------

Upper low currently off the southern California Coast is
expected to be ejected inland Sunday and will be crossing
Nebraska on Monday. It will then be crushed as it enters
confluent flow Tuesday in the vicinity of Wisconsin. The weak
wave heading east toward the lower Ohio River Valley appears
likely to weaken with not much precipitation shield left to
impact the forecast area. Certainly could be rain or snow from
this but better chances over Kentucky and southern West
Virginia.

High pressure is then likely to be near southwest Ontario on
Wednesday with temporary upper ridging bringing quiet weather.

Warm southwest flow is then expected to prevail Thursday and
Friday as an upper low near the four corners states ejects into
the southern Plains and strong moisture transport pushes from
the lower Mississippi River Valley into the Ohio Valley. This
could be a rather wet pattern. NBM 25th-75th 72 hour PQPF ranges
from 0.50-1.50" on the northeast edge of much heavier rains
likely in the lower Mississippi River Valley.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR conditions should prevail through sunrise, though mid/low-level
clouds will continue to thicken as the result of a crossing
disturbance and warm advection. A lingering low-level jet will
keep LLWS for ZZV through around 10z this morning.

Moisture will increase today with the crossing warm front.
Probabilities of MVFR cigs begin to spike above 80 percent
after 10Z or so, mainly south of I-70, before overspreading
other terminals during the rest of the morning. IFR vsby
probabilities are highest (above 50 percent) in the I-80
corridor from mid- morning into early afternoon. Thus, at
FKL/DUJ, prevailing IFR cigs were introduced with fog/mist and
light showers. The southern extent of these restrictions remains
a bit uncertain, and PROB30s were maintained for potential
impacts at all other terminals. Southwest wind will begin to
pick up after sunrise, with gusts to 20 knots possible. A drier
period will return for a few hours in the early afternoon in the
open warm sector ahead of an approaching cold front that will
pass late Saturday evening. Brief convection and gusty wind is
possible along/ahead of the front before rain clears and clouds
begin to lift and scatter overnight into Sunday.

Outlook...
Wind will shift to the northwest and gust to 20-25 knots
Saturday night. Lake-enhanced precipitation is expected behind
the front on Sunday with the typical scattered nature. MVFR cigs
are likely to persis at FKL/DUJ into Sunday afternoon. Another
crossing disturbance may bring rain and snow to the region on
Tuesday.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...Wind Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Monday for
     WVZ514.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Craven
NEAR TERM...Craven
SHORT TERM...Craven
LONG TERM...Craven
AVIATION...Rackley