741
FXUS61 KPBZ 011747
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
147 PM EDT Tue Oct 1 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Precipitation chances continue through Wednesday morning with a
departing upper low and cold front. Clearer and drier conditions
return late week, aside from a chance of rain late Friday or
early Saturday along a weak cold front.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Scattered showers possible this afternoon.
- A cold front begins to impact the Ohio Counties in the
  evening.
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The forecast remains on track late this morning as cloud
coverage continues to blanket the area. The 12z sounding
illustrated a deep moist layer up to near 300 mb with still
anomalously high precipitable water, though lack of forcing
won`t let us realize much of that moisture. As the upper low
transitions back into the flow through the day, remaining light
showers will exit off to the east.

Some scattering of the clouds is noted back in central Ohio late
this morning allowing for some cumulus development as
convective temperatures are met. With weak convergence ahead of
an approaching cold front, will maintain a chance mention of
scattered diurnally driven showers this afternoon. If enough
breaks in the clouds come to fruition, highs could tap the upper
end of the distribution in eastern Ohio around 5 degrees above
average, but with higher confidence in thicker cloud coverage
further east will otherwise see seasonable values.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Dry and comfortable conditions are expected behind the cold
  front.
- Dense fog is possible Wednesday night.
-------------------------------------------------------------------

The cold front is expected to pass early Wednesday morning with
high confidence. Precipitation chances are highlighted along
the frontal axis which will mainly be over the east as it exits
by Wednesday afternoon. Showers are expected to be brief and
fast moving, with little to no additional precipitation
expected. The most noticeable change behind the cold front will
be lower humidity and clearing skies. This will leave Wednesday
quite comfortable.

Wednesday night, clear skies behind the cold front will allow
lows to get back to "seasonable levels" (aka much cooler than
what we have been seeing). Recent rains and efficient cooling
will likely result in fog formation. This will likely need
monitored as the conditions are right for dense fog.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Drier and clearer.
- Slight chance rain/clouds late Friday/early Saturday.
- Chance of rain/clouds late Sunday into Monday.
-------------------------------------------------------------------

On Thursday, expect warmer temperatures and drier conditions to
persist through Friday associated with high pressure. Friday
evening, a weak trough is expected to move through the area
bringing a slight chance for some light showers in Western
Pennsylvania and Northern West Virginia. Once the weak trough
has passed to our northeast, expect slightly cooler temperatures
as another area of high pressure is expected to move into the
area.

On Sunday/Monday, a trough is expected to move through the
area. Models are showing that there is uncertainty regarding the
strength and timing of the trough which will impact how much
rain we observe. Once the trough has passed, expect cooler and
more seasonable temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Widespread MVFR/IFR ceilings will continue this afternoon due to
lingering moisture behind the departing upper low, with a few
patches of drizzle as well. Some cloud breakup south of the WV/PA
border may allow for VFR interludes at MGW. A generally light east
wind will continue.

The approach and passage of a cold front tonight is expected to
bring mainly scattered showers, any restrictions from which would be
brief.  However, with lower levels becoming nearly saturated, and
with a subsidence inversion expected behind the front, will forecast
ceilings to fall to IFR/LIFR during the night with relatively high
confidence. Further patches of mist and drizzle between showers are
expected as well.

Modest improvement will begin later in the morning as daytime
mixing gets going. A few locations may achieve VFR by 18Z mainly
west of PIT, as winds veer to NW behind the front.


.Outlook...
An air mass change after FROPA will offer dry weather and VFR
conditions by Wednesday afternoon through the end of the week,
save for possible overnight rounds of fog.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Shallenberger
NEAR TERM...MLB/CL/Shallenberger
SHORT TERM...Shallenberger
LONG TERM...Lupo
AVIATION...CL/Lupo