736
FXUS61 KPBZ 221151
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
651 AM EST Sat Nov 22 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Probability of rain remains elevated through the early morning
hours. Mild and dry weather expected this weekend and into
early next week. Colder conditions arrive Thursday into Friday
with a passing front. Lake effect snow chances may return
Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:

-Rain exiting this morning
-Temperatures near average today
---------------------------------------------------------------

Pockets of light rain and drizzle with thick low cloud cover
continues across much of the region early this morning amid
broad synoptic forcing from a mid-level shortwave and jet
ascent. GOES-19 water vapor imagery shows dry air advancing from
the west in the wake of the shortwave, and this will put an end
to the rain and begin to erode the clouds after 9am. Some
showers may linger in the ridges into the early afternoon with
upslope flow and cold advection aloft reinforcing dry adiabatic
near-surface profiles with lingering surface moisture.

Cloud cover is expected to gradually diminish between 11am and
2pm as subsidence increases. However, areas near I-80 may hold
onto more cloudiness with cold advection in northerly flow off
Lake Erie. Otherwise, dry weather returns with surface ridging
nosing in locally from high pressure across the central CONUS
and temperatures will hover near seasonal averages.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Passing low over the Great Lakes may return isolated rain
  showers north of Pittsburgh early Sunday
- Below freezing temperatures Sunday night
----------------------------------------------------------------

A ridge over the Ohio River Valley is expected to weaken late
this evening as a new disturbance moves into the Great Lakes.
Lake-enhanced precipitation chances will increase after 9am
Sunday, mainly for areas north of I-80 and along the ridges, as
winds shift from southwest to northeast. Light rain showers may
persist into the early afternoon, through their extent will
depend on how quickly a ridge strengthens to our west. Rainfall
totals are expected to remain below one-tenth of an inch.

Clear, calm conditions will allow for efficient radiational
cooling overnight, likely sending temperatures below freezing
Sunday night. Probability of MinT temperatures below 32 degrees
is greater than 70 percent.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Quiet and dry Monday
- Rain chances return early Tuesday and continue into Wednesday
- Colder conditions Thanksgiving and into the weekend
- Lake-effect snow potential late Thursday into Friday
-------------------------------------------------------------------

Confidence remains high that Monday will feature quiet, dry
weather under high pressure, with afternoon temperatures holding
near climatological average.

A new low pressure system is forecast to develop along the
Rockies and track eastward, eventually phasing with a trough
over the Midwest. This will bring rain chances back early
Tuesday into the region. Long-range guidance shows a band of
mid-level dry air spreading from the Great Plains into the Ohio
River Valley early Tuesday afternoon, which should limit
rainfall totals. Amounts are expected to remain modest,
generally between one-tenth and three-tenths of an inch through
early Wednesday.

A pattern shift appears likely mid-week, with over 70% of long-
range ensemble guidance supporting the development of a stronger
ridge along the West Coast and the arrival of colder air
associated with a passing trough over the Great Lakes. As a
result, temperatures are expected to fall below climatological
averages on Thursday and remain lower into the holiday weekend.
Depending on boundary-layer wind trajectories over the Great
Lakes Thursday into Friday, lake-effect snow could develop in
parts of the region.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Widespread IFR, with pockets of LIFR, are expected through early
this morning as rain tracks across the region on the northern
side of crossing low pressure. Low level moisture in place
should maintain IFR, with some patchy drizzle possible, as the
main area of rain ends. Conditions are expected to improve
through MVFR, to VFR by early to mid afternoon with mixing and
dry advection in NW flow.

Mid and high clouds are then expected to increase tonight as a
cold front approaches from the western Great Lakes region.

Outlook...
Patchy MVFR cigs are possible Sunday north of PIT with the
crossing cold front. Otherwise, VFR is expected as high pressure
builds across the region through Monday night. Restriction and
rain potential returns Tuesday with a warm front, followed by a
Wednesday cold front.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Hefferan/MLB
NEAR TERM...Hefferan/MLB
SHORT TERM...Hefferan
LONG TERM...Hefferan
AVIATION...WM