382
FXUS61 KPBZ 061623
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
1223 PM EDT Sun Apr 6 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Light rain/drizzle expected today. Snow/Wintry mix chances
increase early tomorrow morning. Below average temperatures are
expected through late week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Late rain/drizzle chances continue this evening
- Below average temperatures expected
-------------------------------------------------------------------

Weather observations from the 12Z PIT sounding indicate increase
sinking air above 700mb, which reduces the likelihood of
moderate to heavy rainfall this morning and into the afternoon.
Despite this, there is still plenty of moisture within the
boundary layer, so light rain and drizzle will continue across
the region and into the late evening. Areas north of Morgantown,
WV depict elevated probabilities (above 70%) of only a trace to
0.10 inches total through 6pm today. Higher elevations,
especially in Tucker/Preston County, may receive up to a quarter
of inch of additional rain due to rising air associated with
upsloping.

The combination of widespread clouds, lingering rain, and
approaching cold air aloft will lead to below-average
temperature across the region. Probability of afternoon high
temperatures remaining in the 40s are elevated north of
Morgantown, WV; above 80%. The cold front has yet to reach some
portions of northern West Virginia this morning, keeping
temperatures in the low-50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Precipitation ends late tonight.
- Below-normal temperatures continue with late day/Monday night
  rain and snow showers.
- Cold air mass peaks on Tuesday.
-------------------------------------------------------------------

Shortwave trough will move southward over the region tonight.
This will continue to drive the surface front further south,
most likely into the Carolinas. The upper level wave could
develop additional light precipitation overnight as it moves
southeastward. Precipitation tonight should end before dawn on
Monday as much drier air spreads southward behind the wave.
Snow/sleet possibilities expand to most of the region tonight.
Any accumulation will likely be light and limited to grassy
areas.

Most of Monday will be dry before a cold front, dropping
southeast from the Great Lakes, could bring scattered showers
to the region late Monday afternoon and night. Precipitation
would start as rain with daytime temperatures mainly in the
upper 40s/lower 50s, but a quick mix with and change to snow is
likely Monday evening, with scattered snow showers continuing
into early Tuesday with the strong cold air advection. Minor
accumulation of less than an inch is possible during the
nighttime hours. Widespread low temperatures in the 20s are
forecast, representing well-below normal values.

850mb temperatures reach their minimum values of -11C to -13C on
Tuesday as the 500mb trough axis reaches the Atlantic Seaboard. By
this point, most snow showers should be confined to areas north of
Pittsburgh, and these will end during the day as low-level ridging
arrives.  High temperatures some 15 to 20 degrees below normal can
be expected.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Below-average temperatures are considered favorable through
  Saturday
- Precipitation chances return Thurs into Fri

-------------------------------------------------------------------

Long-range ensemble models remain consistent, predicting a cool
pattern from Tuesday night through Saturday. A large-scale
trough over our region will likely keep afternoon highs below
60 degrees, with less than a 25% chance of exceeding that,
during this time period.

The highest chance of precipitation (60-70%) is Thursday
afternoon into Thursday night as a low-pressure system moves
through the Midwest and Ohio River Valley. While rainfall amount
of over a half inch are currently unlikely (less than 20%)
higher elevations could see closer to that amount due to
upslope flow. There`s a possibility of continued precipitation
Friday into Saturday if this noted trough stalls as indicated by
a few long-range ensemble models.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Broad ascent east of the upper trough axis will maintain areas
of light precipitation through much of the TAF period despite
the region sitting in a post-frontal environment. High
confidence exists in IFR through much of the morning that will
give way to MVFR then VFR at most terminals amid low level north
to south dry advection.

Uncertainty increases aft 00z as ascent continues with the upper
trough axis positioned west of the region while area thermal
profiles cool. Some model soundings suggest potential for a
brief period of ice pellets between 01z-06z before a more
natural rain to snow transition occurs. Probabilities peak along
a line from ZZV through PIT (roughly between 30-50% chance of
occurrence), with more limited chances outside this axis. Areal
precipitation may also influence timing and degree of MVFR/IFR
cig restrictions, especially in its NW extent.

Outlook...
Brief drying between upper waves is expected for most of the
daylight hours Monday, with mixing/lift aiding VFR conditions
at most terminals by 18z.

A reinforcing cold front and upper trough axis passage Monday
night into Tuesday morning will provide a narrow band of
precipitation, with cold advection increasing cig restriction
probabilities amidst low probability snow shower potential. The
next low pressure system will arrive late Wednesday into
Thursday with widespread precipitation/restrictions.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Hefferan
NEAR TERM...Hefferan
SHORT TERM...22/CL
LONG TERM...Hefferan
AVIATION...Frazier