099
FXUS61 KPBZ 012353
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
753 PM EDT Tue Jul 1 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Isolated showers and storms will continue through 10pm. Fog will
likely develop early tomorrow morning. Mostly dry conditions
expected Wednesday in the wake of a cold front.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Isolated showers and storms expected before midnight
- Fog expected between 2am and 8am
- Mostly dry conditions expected Wednesday
---------------------------------------------------------------

A passing cold front over northern Ohio will continue to produce
isolated thunderstorms and showers over the next 3 hours. The
main hazard would be lightning. As convection advances into a
region of marginal to weak MLCAPE, storms are expected to
weaken. At the moment, the wind gusts associated with storms
have produced less than 40mph gusts.

After midnight, expected fog to develop across the region with
noted clearing, light winds, and sufficient boundary layer
moisture. Fog could be dense at times and may prompt a Special
Weather Statement or Advisory. Fog will likely dissipate between
8am and 9am with surface heating.

After 9am Wednesday, mostly dry and quiet conditions. A few
small showers may develop between 1pm to 5pm, during peak
heating. For any given shower, the potential to develop into a
thunderstorm is low-- less than 30%.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Slight chances for showers and thunderstorms Thursday
- Temperatures a few degrees above average.

----------------------------------------------------------------

A trough and its associated surface cold front, is expected to track
southeastward across the Upper Ohio Valley region on Thursday. Very
dry air aloft will likely inhibit updraft growth, limiting the
chance for showers and thunderstorms.

Temperatures should continue to average a few degrees above
seasonable levels through the period.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Dry through the first half of the holiday weekend
- Increasingly hot and humid with shower and thunderstorm
  chances returning Sunday and Monday

-------------------------------------------------------------------

Friday and Saturday, a ridge is forecast to shift eastward resulting
in dry and warm weather across the Upper Ohio Valley region.

The ridge is then progged to flatten Sunday into early next week,
with westerly flow aloft across the Upper Ohio Valley region.
Disturbances embedded in this flow aloft are expected to
periodically cross the region, with daily shower and thunderstorm
chances returning.

Even as the ridge flattens, 500 mb heights are still expected to be
approach 590 dam, bringing hot and humid conditions across the
region. High probability (70%-90%) of maximum temperatures at or
above 90 degrees on Sunday and Monday. However, the chances of
Heat Advisory criteria remains low.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A few showers and thunderstorms remain ahead of an advancing
cold front in Ohio as of 00Z. These are expected to dissipate
through 02Z and will likely not impact TAF sites other than
perhaps a brief shower at FKL or BVI.

A clearing sky, light wind, and low level moisture/surface
saturation are likely to produce areas of fog and/or stratus
overnight. Confidence in potential LIFR impacts are highest
southeast of PIT, particularly at AGC, LBE, and MGW, as well as
valley locations, but all sites are likely to at least touch IFR
visibility at times between 07Z and 11Z.

Diurnal heating/mixing with the NW wind shift after the cold
frontal passage should return VFR areawide by Wednesday
afternoon, save for initial CU development that may be sct/bkn
below 3kft. VFR cumulus and light northwest wind will then be
the story for the afternoon hours.

Outlook...
Very localized river valley fog southeast of KPIT can`t be
ruled out early Thursday morning.

Shortwave movement within northwest flow may create isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms Thursday into Friday. Brief
ridging aloft and surface high pressure favors dry weather
Saturday before storm chances return early next week.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Hefferan
NEAR TERM...Hefferan
SHORT TERM...WM/Lupo
LONG TERM...WM/Lupo
AVIATION...Frazier/CL