590
FXUS61 KPBZ 011741
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
141 PM EDT Sat Nov 1 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry conditions and seasonable temperatures can be expected
until an upper trough returns slight rain chances during the
middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Dry weather and seasonable temperatures continue today and
  overnight.

---------------------------------------------------------------

An upper low currently over the midwest is progged to drop
southeast over the lower Ohio and Tennessee valleys during the
period. However, surface high pressure transitioning over the
region and dry low levels will mitigate chances for any
measurable precipitation. Latest ensemble guidance shows all
areas with single digit to zero percent chances for 0.01 of QPF
during any given hour throughout the period. Increased cloud
coverage overnight should result in slightly warmer lows south
of Interstate 80.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Dry conditions continue with slightly above normal temperature
----------------------------------------------------------------

The mentioned upper low will be as far south as northern Georgia
on Sunday so do not anticipate much impact weatherwise this far
north Sunday and into next week. Monday the low transitions east
over the Carolinas and then off the coast as a large area of
high pressure established itself over the eastern CONUS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
- Periodic chances of light precipitation as a series of weak
  troughs move across the region
- Generally seasonable temperatures
-------------------------------------------------------------------

Zonal flow with weak ridging will maintain dry conditions
Tuesday and Tuesday night, followed by another passing upper
shortwave trough that brings precip chances back to much of the
area late Wednesday into early Thursday. This disturbance will
be far from a washout, with the latest NBM probabilities for
24-hr measurable rainfall (>0.01") around 40-50% for much of the
area (50-70% northeast of Pittsburgh). Meanwhile, upping that
24-hr threshold to a meager tenth of an inch drops probabilities
to 20-30% west and south of Pittsburgh and 30-50% to the
northeast.

The active pattern continues thereafter through the remainder of
the long term, with a period of ridging and dry weather briefly
setting up Thursday into Friday, and another trough with precip
chances Friday into the weekend.

Generally speaking, temperatures remain steady and near (or
slightly above) seasonal through the long term period, as none
of the shortwave troughs/ridges passing overhead are high
enough in amplitude to provide much variation.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR is very likely with high-based cumulus under some high cirrus.
Some wind gusts are expected throughout the day, but chances of
>25kts are <10%. Winds are expected to subside overnight with
decoupling.

Chances of MVFR cigs increase again after 06Z for FKL and DUJ as
lake moisture and ceilings approach from the north in west-northwest
flow aloft. Winds are expected to remain light and generally
variable through tonight and tomorrow under the the high
pressure center.

.OUTLOOK...
High pressure and ridging will continue to allow high confidence
(>80% chance) of VFR through the period. Low chances of rain
approach from the south Sunday evening and from the north on
Monday.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...88
NEAR TERM...88
SHORT TERM...88
LONG TERM...Cermak/Shallenberger/88
AVIATION...Milcarek