Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pittsburgh, PA

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797
FXUS61 KPBZ 070857
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
357 AM EST Thu Nov 7 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A few showers are possible over northern West Virginia early
this morning. High pressure then settles in and yields a return
to calm, dry, and warm weather through Saturday. Rain to return
by Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Dry and more seasonable today

-------------------------------------------------------------------

A surface cold front will drift southward toward the Mid-
Atlantic region this morning, and surface high pressure will
move down from the Great Lakes region. Drier air will overspread
the region in the zonal flow aloft. Clouds should dissipate
from north to south, mainly during the afternoon.

Cooler air will also spread southward across the Upper Ohio
Valley which will return temperatures closer to seasonal values,
but still above normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Overnight radiative cooling will yield chilly fall-like
  mornings
- Dry and warmer than average Saturday
-------------------------------------------------------------------

Above average warmth continues Friday paired with largely clear
skies. More efficient mixing Friday could yield a return to
gusty conditions with many areas north of I-70 featuring a >50%
chance to see gusts over 20mph. Lower dewpoints, light winds and
clear skies combine to yield good radiative cooling Friday
night and the chance to start Saturday near the freezing mark
in the north.

Saturday continues a similar warm and dry story before high pressure
drifts eastward over the Atlantic ahead of an approaching
trough.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
- Rain returns Sunday
-------------------------------------------------------------------

Cloud cover increases Saturday night and precipitation chances
increase from west to east early on Sunday. Clustered members
of the long-range ensembles show rain totals between 0.25-0.50
inches on Sunday before POPs decline through Monday. There still
exists the chance for this trough to draw tropical moisture
north from the Gulf of Mexico. However, it seems likely that
most of this moisture would be pinched off to the southwest of
our area.

After this, ensemble solutions diverge quickly yielding a muddy
picture of the early to middle of next week. Most clustered
members show a pattern featuring a western CONUS trough and
eastern CONUS ridge but the similarities end there. Members
disagree heavily on the timing and amplitude of these waves.

At this time, it seems possible that the area returns to dry,
unseasonably warm and calm conditions early next week before a low
could return rain chances during the middle of next week. However,
there is still a lot of clarity to come on this or any solution.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MVFR cigs will generally continue across the region this morning
with periods of VFR as the cold front crosses. Light showers or
drizzle may also be possible at MGW with the crossing front,
though probability is low.

Improvements to areawide VFR is expected by this afternoon as
post-frontal dry air returns. NW winds will remain light
through the period.

.Outlook...
Fog potential increases early Friday morning due to light winds,
lingering low-lvl moisture, and clearing sky. FKL/DUJ will
likely see vis restrictions of IFR/LIFR. However, sites as far
south as HLG,AGC, and LBE may observe impacts as well.
Otherwise, general VFR should continue into the weekend, with
next restriction chance on Sunday with another crossing system.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...22/AK
NEAR TERM...22
SHORT TERM...AK
LONG TERM...AK
AVIATION...Hefferan/Rackley