Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pittsburgh, PA
Issued by NWS Pittsburgh, PA
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797 FXUS61 KPBZ 070857 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 357 AM EST Thu Nov 7 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A few showers are possible over northern West Virginia early this morning. High pressure then settles in and yields a return to calm, dry, and warm weather through Saturday. Rain to return by Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... KEY MESSAGES: - Dry and more seasonable today ------------------------------------------------------------------- A surface cold front will drift southward toward the Mid- Atlantic region this morning, and surface high pressure will move down from the Great Lakes region. Drier air will overspread the region in the zonal flow aloft. Clouds should dissipate from north to south, mainly during the afternoon. Cooler air will also spread southward across the Upper Ohio Valley which will return temperatures closer to seasonal values, but still above normal. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/... KEY MESSAGES: - Overnight radiative cooling will yield chilly fall-like mornings - Dry and warmer than average Saturday ------------------------------------------------------------------- Above average warmth continues Friday paired with largely clear skies. More efficient mixing Friday could yield a return to gusty conditions with many areas north of I-70 featuring a >50% chance to see gusts over 20mph. Lower dewpoints, light winds and clear skies combine to yield good radiative cooling Friday night and the chance to start Saturday near the freezing mark in the north. Saturday continues a similar warm and dry story before high pressure drifts eastward over the Atlantic ahead of an approaching trough. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... - Rain returns Sunday ------------------------------------------------------------------- Cloud cover increases Saturday night and precipitation chances increase from west to east early on Sunday. Clustered members of the long-range ensembles show rain totals between 0.25-0.50 inches on Sunday before POPs decline through Monday. There still exists the chance for this trough to draw tropical moisture north from the Gulf of Mexico. However, it seems likely that most of this moisture would be pinched off to the southwest of our area. After this, ensemble solutions diverge quickly yielding a muddy picture of the early to middle of next week. Most clustered members show a pattern featuring a western CONUS trough and eastern CONUS ridge but the similarities end there. Members disagree heavily on the timing and amplitude of these waves. At this time, it seems possible that the area returns to dry, unseasonably warm and calm conditions early next week before a low could return rain chances during the middle of next week. However, there is still a lot of clarity to come on this or any solution. && .AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... MVFR cigs will generally continue across the region this morning with periods of VFR as the cold front crosses. Light showers or drizzle may also be possible at MGW with the crossing front, though probability is low. Improvements to areawide VFR is expected by this afternoon as post-frontal dry air returns. NW winds will remain light through the period. .Outlook... Fog potential increases early Friday morning due to light winds, lingering low-lvl moisture, and clearing sky. FKL/DUJ will likely see vis restrictions of IFR/LIFR. However, sites as far south as HLG,AGC, and LBE may observe impacts as well. Otherwise, general VFR should continue into the weekend, with next restriction chance on Sunday with another crossing system. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. OH...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...22/AK NEAR TERM...22 SHORT TERM...AK LONG TERM...AK AVIATION...Hefferan/Rackley