135
FXUS61 KPBZ 281814
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
114 PM EST Fri Feb 28 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry weather is expected today as high pressure briefly builds
across the region. A cold front will return rain, changing to
snow, to the region tonight and Saturday. Light accumulations
are possible, primarily in the higher terrain. Dry and cold
weather is expected Sunday under high pressure.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Dry with partial clearing the rest of today
-------------------------------------------------------------------

Dry weather is expected through the daytime as ridging briefly
builds ahead of the next shortwave trough. The shortwave`s
associated surface low will also drop southeastward over the
Upper Great Lakes today. A tightening pressure gradient ahead of
the low will result in increasing wind through the day. Gusts
from 30 to 35 mph are likely with mixing through the afternoon.
Warm advection ahead of the low should also result in high
temperatures ranging from 5 to 10 degrees above average.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Rain returns tonight
- Rain changes to scattered snow showers late tonight and
  Saturday
- Colder Sunday
--------------------------------------------------------------------

The initial shortwave will approach and cross the Upper Ohio
Valley region tonight, as the surface low tracks across the
Upper Great Lakes through Ontario. The low`s associated cold
front will also track SE across the region overnight.
Convergence along the crossing front, increasing jet supported
ascent, and a crossing vort max, will result in scattered
showers returning to the region tonight. A lack of deep layer
moisture will likely be a limiting factor in the precip coverage
overnight. Model soundings and critical thicknesses indicate
rain showers will change to snow showers from N-S late tonight
in cold advection after FROPA.

A crossing upper level trough and cold NW flow off of the Great
Lakes should result in scattered snow showers across the area on
Saturday. Lake Erie is mostly ice covered, though enough open
areas on the lake, and some limited connection to Lakes Huron
and Michigan could result in some enhancement of the snow
showers. Lapse rates also increase through the dendritic layer,
though the limiting factor in all of this is a lack of
sufficient moisture in the DGZ.

Any remaining snow showers should end Saturday evening as the
upper trough axis moves east of the region, and high pressure
begins to build in. This high will maintain dry weather through
Sunday night as it moves east, and becomes centered over the
Upper Ohio Valley region.

Temperatures are expected to initially warm tonight ahead of the
approaching low, before falling through the day Saturday in cold
advection. Temperatures Saturday night through Sunday night are
expected to average around 10 degrees below seasonable levels.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Dry weather continues through Monday
- Rain chances return with strong low pressure late Tuesday into
  Wednesday night
- Colder with snow possible late Wednesday night and Thursday
-------------------------------------------------------------------

Model ensembles indicate one trough will exit the eastern CONUS
early in the week, as another tracks across the western CONUS.
Flat ridging in between should result in dry weather across the
Upper Ohio Valley region Monday into part of Tuesday. The
western CONUS trough will advance eastward, reaching the Midwest
region late Tuesday and Wednesday, as a surface low develops
just to the east of the trough. Southwest flow ahead of the
trough/low will transport warm air and moisture across the
region late Tuesday and Tuesday night, with rain chances
returning.

The deepening surface low is also progged to track across the
Great Lakes region Wednesday and Wednesday night, as the
shortwave crosses the Upper Ohio Valley region. Periods of rain
will continue as this system approaches. A cold front trailing
south of the low will track eastward Wednesday night. Rain could
change to snow in cold advection late Wednesday night and
Thursday, as a secondary trough tracks east.

Temperatures will warm through Wednesday, when highs are
expected to be around 60 for many locations. Readings are
expected to return to below average levels by late week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR conditions and breezy south-southwest winds prevail through
this afternoon. High clouds continue to increase in coverage,
then gradually lower tonight as the next upper shortwave trough
approaches from the west. Ceiling restriction potential
increases overnight with the onset of scattered rain showers,
primarily after ~05z. Probabilities for MVFR cigs continue to
hover around 60-80% in these rain showers. Probabilities for
IFR remain low until a cold front pushes through and rain
transitions to snow, after which they increase to 40-60%
(especially north of Pittsburgh) in snow showers through
Saturday morning.

Southwest winds today veer to westerly and then northwesterly
tonight with the passage of the cold front, remaining breezy
through that time.

Outlook...
Restriction potential decreases Saturday evening with the
departure of snow showers and advection of drier air into the
region. High pressure maintains VFR Sunday and Monday.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Rackley
NEAR TERM...WM/Rackley
SHORT TERM...WM
LONG TERM...WM
AVIATION...Cermak