866
FXUS61 KPBZ 030822
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
422 AM EDT Thu Jul 3 2025

.SYNOPSIS...

The region will be under the influence of high pressure through
the next few days. Fog development is possible during the
morning each day. A trough will drop south into the area
bringing a chance of unsettled weather today.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Morning patchy valley fog.
- Isolated showers and thunderstorms
---------------------------------------------------------------

The area will still be under the influence of high pressure
through the day. The morning will begin with some fog potential
but will likely dissipate by the 12Z to 14Z timeframe. A trough
will sag south through the area by the afternoon and into the
evening. This will bring around of showers and thunderstorms to
the area. The NBM gives a 30% chance of thunderstorms over the
area, mainly over the ridges to the east. The timing for the
potential will be between 20Z and 03Z. Initiation seems a bit
late in the evening but the SB CAPE isin`t the greatest either
with some 50% to 70% NBM probs of 1000 J/Kg. Will highlight this
as a sliver of the forecast area is in a Marginal Risk for
wind.

Heading into the overnight, a lingering shower or storm can`t be
ruled out. High pressure will take over again with clearing
skies Thursday night. The potential will fog will be present
again with the impacts mainly in river valleys. Temperatures are
expected to be near normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Dry and sunny weather for the Fourth.
- Temperatures a few degrees above average.

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Sfc high pressure and ridging aloft should promote mainly dry and
warm weather again Friday and continue into Saturday. Rising
heights and southerly flow should boost area highs into the
upper 80s to near 90F. NBM probs for 90F are highest across
eastern Ohio, northern West Virginia panhandle, and the
Pittsburgh urban heat island (70%-85%). For other areas,
probabilities are generally around 35%-45% or lower in the
higher elevations. This will highlight the potential on Saturday
as the highs for Friday will only make it into the mid 80s.
Temperatures are expected to be above normal for the highs and
the lows.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Increasingly hot and humid with shower and thunderstorm
  chances returning Sunday and Monday.
- Post frontal rain chances remain on Tuesday and Wednesday.

-------------------------------------------------------------------

The ridge is then progged to flatten Sunday into early next week,
with westerly flow aloft across the Upper Ohio Valley region.
Disturbances embedded in this flow aloft are expected to
periodically cross the region, with daily shower and thunderstorm
chances returning.

On Sunday and Monday, 500 mb heights are still expected to approach
590 dam, bringing hot and humid conditions across the region. High
probability (70%-90%) of maximum temperatures at or above 90 degrees
on Sunday and Monday. The chances of Heat Advisory criteria remain
low as heat indices remain in the 90s.

Temperatures are expected to relax for the Tuesday and Wednesday
period. This will be due to the passage of a cold front Monday
night. This will allow cooler air into the region with the
potential of some lingering chances for precip behind the front.
There is a lack of confidence with this patterns so the 30% to
40% pops were left in the forecast.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As expected many clouds have dissipated and left us with largely
clear skies and VFR prevailing at all ports. VFR is expected to be
the rule today, with few exceptions in fog this morning. Fog is
expected to be less widespread than Wednesday with the most likely
impacts being east of Pittsburgh. Have maintained the mention for
LBE and lowered MGW from prevailing to a TEMPO for any MVFR/IFR
impacts in fog this morning.

Valley fog impacts are expected to wind down by 13z, with scattered
to broken VFR cu replacing it. Isolated storms may pop along a cold
front dropping south through the region this afternoon but POPs
remain rather low. DUJ maintains the greatest chance to see storms
and have continued their PROB30. FKL and LBE would be the next most
likely impacted ports but chances are low enough to preclude TAF
mention.

Light and variable wind overnight will take on more of a
northwesterly direction under 10 knots by late morning.

Outlook... VFR is expected through Sunday as high pressure moves
across the region, with precipitation chances and isolated
restrictions potentially returning Monday.&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Shallenberger
NEAR TERM...Shallenberger
SHORT TERM...Shallenberger
LONG TERM...LL/Shallenberger
AVIATION...AK