876
FXUS61 KPBZ 070223 AAB
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
923 PM EST Thu Mar 6 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Light snow will end by this evening. Winds remain gusty through
tonight. A clipper will provide rain and snow chances late
Friday through Saturday morning, though impacts will be limited.
A warm up is then likely into next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Snow ends tonight
- Gusty winds expected through the night
-------------------------------------------------------------------

Evening update...refreshed the overnight period with the latest
hires model guidance. Not a great deal of changes. Increased the
PoPs over the ridges for the evening and adjusted the eastward
speed of the clearing line. Rest of the forecast is in good
shape. The winds advisory for eastern Tucker county has been
cancelled as gusts have dropped below advisory levels.

Previous discussion...
The downward trend of snow showers/flurries will continue this
evening. Little additional accumulation is forecast in most
cases. Eastern Tucker County may see another inch, but with less
snow than expected to this point, have dropped the Winter
Weather Advisory early in collaboration with surrounding
offices.

A still-tight pressure gradient will keep gusty wind going into
tonight. Most peak values currently are in the 25 to 35 MPH
range, with a few occasional gusts to between 40 and 45 MPH.
HREF probabilities continue to confine chances of 45+ MPH gusts
to eastern Tucker County, where the Wind Advisory will continue
into tonight. Considered a brief expansion in the northeastern
CWA in the Jefferson County/DuBois area, where 40-45 knot 850mb
wind has some chance to mix down during the mid to late
afternoon. Cannot rule out a 45 to 50 MPH gust or two, but feel
that the continued cloud cover may hinder mixing enough to
prevent advisory-level gusts on any sort of extended
temporal/areal extent, and ultimately decided against expansion.
Gusts will gradually relax overnight, but breezy conditions
will continue.

Breaks in the clouds will develop tonight as snow ends and as
ridging arrives. Continued cold advection will drop lows into
the 20s tonight, but the ongoing mixing will keep temperatures
from really bottoming out.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Dry into Friday afternoon with near-normal temperature
- Rain/snow chances later Friday afternoon into Saturday
  morning, with light accumulation expected
- Quiet weather Saturday afternoon and night
--------------------------------------------------------------------

The surface ridge departs Friday morning, through which dry weather
will be maintained.  However, clouds will be on the increase during
the morning ahead of a shortwave/weak surface low combination
which drops across the Ohio Valley region Friday night/Saturday
morning. Precipitation arrives Friday afternoon, with rain at
least mixing in for most lowland areas south of US-422 (possibly
all rain at the start south of Pittsburgh), where temperatures
are most likely to warm well into the 40s. A southward march of
the snow mix threshold takes place through the night, when
precipitation coverage will be greatest. A period of 700mb
frontogenesis ahead of the system warm front may enhance
precipitation rates for a time Friday evening, generally from
Pittsburgh north. This is likely when the best potential for
some snow accumulation will occur near the I-80 corridor.
Accumulation could be hindered at onset by lingering warm
ground, although this may be overcome if snow rates become
healthy enough, particularly after sunset.

NBM/HREF chances of >1" remain in the 50-60% range only for areas
near/north of I-80 and in the high terrain, and this is where
much of the accumulation is forecast. Less than an inch is
expected elsewhere, while portions of the southern CWA may get
very little to none. Any traffic-related impacts will mainly be
felt late Friday night and early Saturday morning before the
March sun once again starts to warm the surface above freezing
by mid- to-late morning. By that point, rain and/or snow may be
confined to northern West Virginia and far southwest Pennsylvania.
Precipitation is likely to end by midday as the clipper pulls
away.

Quiet weather returns by Saturday afternoon and continues through
the night as surface ridging visits. High temperatures likely
will end up a touch below normal both Saturday and Saturday
night.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Quiet weather through midweek with a warming trend expected
- Next chance of rain arrives by Thursday
-------------------------------------------------------------------

A weak shortwave trough with limited moisture swings across on
Sunday.  An isolated shower or two are possible north of I-80, but
the main impact will likely be limited to clouds, as ensembles show
little potential for precipitation.

Thereafter, there remains high confidence in dry weather and a
warming trend as ridging builds during the early week period.
Ridging occurrence is well-agreed upon by the ensemble guidance, but
there remains a bit of disagreement on how high 500mb heights get.
This does lend a bit of uncertainty in how warm temperatures get,
but well-above normal temperatures seem likely.  Only areas north of
I-80 have less than a 50 percent chance of high temperatures
exceeding 60 degrees Tuesday and Wednesday, according to NBM
probabilities.

The next reasonable chance of precipitation, which will be in the
form of rain with high confidence, arrives next Wednesday night and
Thursday as the ridge departs and a shortwave trough approaches from
the Plains. Despite the confidence in precip type, uncertainty with
temperature starts to increase by Thursday, with spreads between

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MVFR stratocu will continue to improve to VFR from W-E before
scattering out for most airports this evening, as an upper
trough exits to the east, and a weak surface ridge builds in.
FKL and DUJ will likely see stratocu continue through the night
under cold NW flow, though cig heights should improve to low
VFR.

Otherwise, mid and high level clouds will increase through
Friday ahead of approaching low pressure. MVFR to IFR
restrictions are expected to overspread the region from W-E late
in the day, with snow and rain, changing to all snow.

Wind should diminish this evening, before becoming gusty again
Friday ahead of the approaching low.

Outlook...
Restrictions in snow are likely to continue into early Saturday
as the low tracks across the Ohio Valley region. High pressure
is then expected to maintain VFR across the region through
Tuesday.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Rackley/CL
NEAR TERM...22/CL
SHORT TERM...CL
LONG TERM...CL
AVIATION...WM