176
FXUS61 KPBZ 230013
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
713 PM EST Sat Nov 22 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry weather returns through Monday save a chance of a rain or
snow shower north of Interstate 80 late tonight. Temperatures
should rise to above normal by mid-week. Low pressure returns
areawide rain on Tuesday, followed by a cooler end to the week
with lake effect snow possible by week`s end.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Mainly dry with near normal temperatures
---------------------------------------------------------------

Dry weather continues through tonight, though clouds will be
reinforced ahead of an approaching shortwave diving through the
Great Lakes. CAMs still support some light precip sliding along
the I-80 corridor overnight with a weak surface trough. Thermal
profiles are marginally cold and would likely support a
rain/snow mix albeit very light and with minimal to no impacts.
Light southerly flow and increasing clouds will hold overnight
lows right around normal (upper 20s north of PGH, lower 30s
south).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Passing low over the Great Lakes may bring isolated rain
  showers north of Pittsburgh early Sunday
- Below freezing temperatures Sunday night
- Dry and milder Monday
----------------------------------------------------------------

Most of the shower activity north of I-80 should depart the
region by 12Z Sunday, although a few more may occur around
midday as the shortwave trough axis and a surface boundary
cross. Negligible impact is expected. The frontal passage will
aid in steepening low-level lapse rates, allowing for the
development of blustery afternoon conditions. Went with the 90th
percentile NBM gust suggestions. Peaks of 20 to 30 MPH should
be widespread, with some of potentially up to 40 MPH along the
ridges. Highs in the upper 40s and lower 50s will be common.

Surface high pressure slides across the Upper Ohio Valley Sunday
night. This will clear skies and calm wind, leading to a good
radiational cooling night. Low temperatures below freezing are a
good bet, with the vast majority of the forecast area having an
80 percent or greater chance of low temperatures below 32
degrees.

Monday should dawn mostly sunny. Later, middle and upper clouds will
begin to invade in westerly flow aloft ahead of a relatively flat
mid-level ridge. The clouds should help to largely offset much of
the temperature rise from warm advection. Thus, continued fairly
seasonable temperatures for late November are progged.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Rain chances return early Tuesday and continue into Wednesday
- Colder conditions Thanksgiving and into the weekend
- Lake-effect snow potential late Thursday into Friday night
-------------------------------------------------------------------

Most guidance agrees that a shortwave over the central Plains at 00Z
Tuesday will ride northeastward towards the Great Lakes and dampen
out as it does so, while a surface low crosses the Upper Midwest.
The resulting southwest flow and shot of moisture is expected to
bring our next chance of widespread rain later Monday night into
Tuesday, along with above-normal temperatures. The steadiest,
heaviest rain is likely Tuesday morning, before advancing mid-level
dry air begins to limit QPF potential during the afternoon. A
wetting rain (0.10" or more) is likely, with NBM likelihood of 80
percent or greater areawide for this event through Tuesday night. A
more soaking rain of 0.50" or more is less so, with eastern Ohio the
main region with chances of 30 percent or more of such totals.

Thereafter, ensembles continue to advertise a notable pattern shift
from midweek on. The next, much stronger shortwave crossing the
Upper Mississippi Valley on Wednesday will likely wrap into a closed
500mb low by Thanksgiving, dropping a trough over the northeast
CONUS. Another mild day with showers is expected Wednesday, before
the return of subzero 850mb temperatures brings a return of below-
normal temperature and a change to snow showers beginning Wednesday
night. The difference between those 850mb temperatures and the Lake
Erie surface temperature may support some level of lake-effect
activity. Details on shortwave movement and low-level wind
trajectory become more muddled for the second half of the week. At
this distance, a more westerly or perhaps west-northwesterly flow
may be favored, which would keep much of the lake-effect snow north
of I-80, and the more significant potential totals closer to the
lake shore. It will be at least a few days before we are able to
forecast snow chances with a higher level of confidence.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR prevails to begin the 00Z TAF period as ceilings across
northern WV have lifted to 3-5kft and the rest of the area is
only seeing some passing cirrus. These conditions should remain
generally unchanged during at least the first few hours of the
period, followed by increasing mid-level cloud cover from
northwest to southeast with ceilings in the 7-10kft range. This
mid-level cloud deck moves through the area during overnight
hours and departs by mid to late morning. In the wake of these
clouds, daytime heating and boundary layer mixing will allow for
two things to occur: 1) the redevelopment of a stratocu deck
with MVFR ceilings, and 2) increasing winds as momentum transfer
promotes surface gusts to 20-25 knots. The MVFR stratocu will be
most likely around and north of PIT/AGC based on interrogation
of BUFKIT soundings and the latest HREF probabilities (60-80%
chance of ceilings below 2kft near/north of Pittsburgh).
Elsewhere, drier air potentially keeps ceilings higher or more
scattered in nature.

If low ceilings develop mid/late morning, they should be rather
short-lived as drier northwest flow and additional boundary
layer mixing allows for stratocu to scatter and dissipate by
early to mid afternoon (potentially later at DUJ). Winds relax
after 21z as heating/mixing wanes through the end of the period.


Outlook...
VFR is expected Sunday night through Monday night as high
pressure builds across the region. Restriction and rain
potential returns Tuesday with a warm front, followed by a
Wednesday cold front.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MLB/CL
NEAR TERM...Rackley/MLB
SHORT TERM...CL
LONG TERM...CL
AVIATION...Cermak/MLB