371
FNUS73 KPAH 081359
FWSPAH

Spot Forecast for Area 6 Piles...FWS
National Weather Service Paducah KY
759 AM CST Fri Nov 8 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0900 CST on November 08.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...
The mixing height will only be about 1100 FT AGL at the planned
ignition time, as the inversion will take until almost midday to rise
above the critical 1700 FT AGL threshold. Otherwise, burning conditions
include a uniformly north to northeast wind from the burn site surface
up to the transport winds aloft. RH values just shy of 70 percent at
ignition time drop to mid afternoon minimums in the lower to middle
40s percentile.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (50-60 percent).
CWR.................0 percent.
Temperature.........53 at ignition...Max 64.
RH..................69 percent at ignition...Min 45 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......Winds north at 6 mph at ignition...otherwise
                    Northeast winds 6 to 9 mph.
Mixing height.......1100 ft AGL at ignition...otherwise 2400 ft
                    AGL.
Transport winds.....Northeast 8 to 15 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor /10500 knot-ft/ at ignition. Max...poor
                    /31700 knot-ft/.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth at ignition...max 4.

TIME (CST)      9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky cover.......MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  PC
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............53  57  58  61  62  63  64  62  60
RH..............69  62  59  51  50  46  45  48  49
20 FT wind dir..N   NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE
20 FT wind spd..6   7   8   9   9   8   8   7   6
20 FT wind gust.12  13  14  14  15  15  15  14  12
Mix hgt (kft)...1.1 1.3 1.9 2.3 2.4 2.4 2.4 0.6 0.5
Transp wind dir.NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE
Transp wind spd.12  13  14  14  15  14  13  9   8
Haines index....4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4
Vrate kt-ft/1K..11  14  22  27  32  29  27  5   3
Ventrate Cat....PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (30-40 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (65-75 percent).
CWR.................0 percent.
Temperature.........Min 46.
RH..................Max 86 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......Northeast winds around 5 mph early in the
                    evening becoming light, then becoming east 5 to
                    6 mph overnight.
Mixing height.......400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....East 9 to 14 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (3400 knot-ft).
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.

TIME (CST)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky cover.......PC  PC  PC  PC  PC  PC  PC  PC  PC  MC  MC  MC
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............57  52  51  50  49  48  48  47  47  47  47  47
RH..............57  69  71  74  74  77  77  79  79  76  76  76
20 FT wind dir..NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  E   E   E
20 FT wind spd..5   5   5   3   3   3   3   3   5   5   6   6
20 FT wind gust.10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  12  12  13
Mix hgt (kft)...0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4
Transp wind dir.NE  NE  E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E
Transp wind spd.9   10  9   10  12  12  13  13  12  12  13  14
Haines index....4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4
Vrate kt-ft/1K..3   4   4   4   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5
Ventrate Cat....PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR

.SATURDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (80-90 percent). Slight chance of
                    rain showers in the morning, then rain showers
                    likely in the afternoon. Slight chance of
                    thunderstorms late in the afternoon.
CWR.................0 percent increasing to 64 percent in the
                    afternoon.
Temperature.........Max 64.
RH..................Min 60 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......East winds 7 to 10 mph. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms late in the
                    afternoon.
Mixing height.......1300 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....East 10 to 15 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (5100 knot-ft).
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.

TIME (CST)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky cover.......MCLDY  MCLDY  MCLDY  CLOUDY CLOUDY CLOUDY
Weather cov.....S CHC  S CHC  S CHC  LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........                                   S CHC
CWR.............0      0      0      60     60     60
Temp............47     50     57     61     62     62
RH..............76     80     67     60     62     70
20 FT wind dir..E      E      E      SE     SE     SE
20 FT wind spd..7      9      9      9      8      7
20 FT wind gust.13     15     14     13     14     14
Mix hgt (kft)...0.5    0.6    1.0    1.3    1.0    0.7
Transp wind dir.E      E      E      E      E      E
Transp wind spd.14     15     15     15     13     10
Haines index....4      4      4      4      4      4
Vrate kt-ft/1K..6      8      13     16     11     6
Ventrate Cat....POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR

$$
Forecaster...WFO PADUCAH
Requested by...Ben Schmall
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2426111.0/PAH
.DELDT 11/08/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL benjamin_schmall@fws.gov