Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
Versions:
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055
FNUS73 KPAH 151328
FWSPAH
Spot Forecast for Prison Piles...USFWS
National Weather Service Paducah KY
828 AM CDT Thu May 15 2025
Forecast is based on ignition time of 0900 CDT on May 15.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.
.DISCUSSION...
South winds are picking up this morning and mixing heights should build up
to about 2500-3000 ft by late morning/early afternoon leading to fair
to good dispersion. There is a chance for thunderstorms after about
3 to 4 pm today but they are generally expected to hold off til a little
later.
.REST OF TODAY...
Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (55-65 percent). Slight chance of
showers and thunderstorms late in the
afternoon.
CWR.................0 percent increasing to 21 percent late in the
afternoon.
Temperature.........77 at ignition...Max 89.
RH..................75 percent at ignition...Min 53 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
Slope/valley.......Winds south at 10 mph at ignition...otherwise
South winds 8 to 12 mph with gusts to around 26
mph. Gusty and erratic winds expected near
thunderstorms late in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......1400 ft AGL at ignition...otherwise 3000 ft
AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 17 to 25 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor /23700 knot-ft/ at ignition. Max...good
/64600 knot-ft/.
TIME (CDT) 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky cover.......PC PC MC MC MC MC MC MC MC
Weather cov..... SCH SCH
Weather type.... RW RW
Tstm cov........ SCH SCH
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 20 20
Temp............77 79 82 85 86 86 87 88 86
RH..............75 73 68 64 61 58 57 53 55
20 FT wind dir..S S S S S S S S SW
20 FT wind spd..10 12 13 14 14 15 15 14 14
20 FT wind gust.20 22 23 24 24 25 26 25 25
Mix hgt (kft)...1.4 1.8 2.0 2.2 2.6 3.0 2.9 3.0 1.2
Transp wind dir.S S S S S SW SW SW SW
Transp wind spd.20 21 21 21 23 24 25 23 17
Vrate kt-ft/1K..24 33 36 39 53 63 65 59 17
Ventrate Cat....PR PR PR PR FR GD GD FR PR
.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent) then becoming
partly cloudy (40-50 percent). Chance of
showers and thunderstorms.
CWR.................21 percent decreasing to 0 percent.
Temperature.........Min 68.
RH..................Max 91 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
Slope/valley.......Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph. Gusts up to 24 mph
in the evening. Gusty and erratic winds
expected near thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 13 to 21 mph decreasing to around 10
mph overnight.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (3800 knot-ft).
TIME (CDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky cover.......MC CDY CDY MC MC MC MC PC PC PC PC PC
Weather cov.....SCH CHC CHC CHC SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
Weather type....RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW
Tstm cov........SCH CHC CHC CHC SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
CWR.............20 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Temp............84 82 79 78 78 76 76 74 74 72 71 70
RH..............62 61 65 69 69 74 74 79 76 81 81 88
20 FT wind dir..S SW S SW S SW SW SW SW SW SW S
20 FT wind spd..13 12 10 10 9 8 7 6 6 6 6 6
20 FT wind gust.24 22 21 20 20 18 16 14 14 13 12 12
Mix hgt (kft)...0.8 0.7 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4
Transp wind dir.S SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW
Transp wind spd.18 20 18 21 21 18 15 13 10 10 10 10
Vrate kt-ft/1K..12 11 8 13 15 9 8 6 4 4 4 4
Ventrate Cat....PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR
.FRIDAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (45-55 percent). Chance of showers
and thunderstorms early in the morning, then
slight chance of showers and thunderstorms in
the morning. Showers and thunderstorms likely
in the afternoon.
CWR.................0 percent increasing to 74 percent in the
afternoon.
Temperature.........Max 87.
RH..................Min 57 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
Slope/valley.......South winds 5 to 13 mph. Gusts up to 28 mph
late in the morning. Gusty and erratic winds
expected near thunderstorms in the morning.
Gusty and erratic winds expected near
thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......3800 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 9 to 17 mph increasing to southwest 31 to
33 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (3800 knot-ft) early in the morning
increasing to very good (101600 knot-ft) in the
afternoon increasing to good (79800 knot-ft)
early in the morning increasing to very good
(106100 knot-ft) in the afternoon late in the
afternoon.
TIME (CDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky cover.......PC PC PC PC PC PC PC PC PC MC MC MC
Weather cov.....CHC SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY
Weather type....RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW
Tstm cov........CHC SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 70 70 70 70 70
Temp............70 69 72 74 79 81 84 85 86 83 83 82
RH..............86 91 85 81 73 66 61 59 57 62 62 62
20 FT wind dir..S S S S S S S S S S S S
20 FT wind spd..6 6 7 9 10 12 13 14 15 16 16 16
20 FT wind gust.13 13 15 16 17 20 22 24 26 26 28 28
Mix hgt (kft)...0.5 0.6 1.1 1.5 1.9 2.6 3.2 3.6 3.8 3.8 3.4 2.8
Transp wind dir.SW S S S S SW SW SW SW SW SW SW
Transp wind spd.9 9 14 16 17 21 24 28 31 32 33 33
Vrate kt-ft/1K..4 5 13 21 29 47 69 88 102 106 99 80
Ventrate Cat....PR PR PR PR PR FR GD GD VGD VGD GD GD
$$
Forecaster...GIBBS
Requested by...Benjamin Schmall
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2514066.0/PAH
.DELDT 05/15/25
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL David_jones@fws.gov,benjamin_schmall@fws.gov