892
FNUS73 KPAH 032009
FWSPAH

Spot Forecast for Householder Unit 1...Missouri Department of Conservation
National Weather Service Paducah KY
209 PM CST Tue Dec 3 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0800 CST on December 05.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...

A cold front moves through Wednesday night, with winds turning
around to the north-northwest on Thursday. Smoke dispersion
should be fairly good with decent mixing and transport winds.
Minimum RH values are forecast to fall into the 30 percentile
range.

.THURSDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-10 percent).
CWR.................0 percent.
Temperature.........24 at ignition...Max 31.
RH..................52 percent at ignition...Min 34 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......Winds north at 15 mph at ignition...otherwise
                    North winds 7 to 12 mph.
Mixing height.......2800 ft AGL at ignition...otherwise 3800 ft
                    AGL.
Transport winds.....North 14 to 23 mph decreasing to around 12 mph
                    late in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair /56500 knot-ft/ at ignition. Max...fair
                    /56500 knot-ft/.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth at ignition...max 4.

TIME (CST)      8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky cover.......MCR MCR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............24  25  26  27  28  30  31  31  30  28
RH..............52  48  44  40  38  35  34  34  37  42
20 FT wind dir..N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N
20 FT wind spd..15  15  14  14  13  13  13  12  9   8
20 FT wind gust.21  21  21  20  20  20  20  18  16  13
Mix hgt (kft)...2.8 2.8 3.1 3.3 3.5 3.7 3.8 3.5 2.6 1.5
Transp wind dir.N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N
Transp wind spd.23  21  20  18  17  17  17  16  14  12
Haines index....4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4
Vrate kt-ft/1K..57  51  51  52  53  55  55  49  32  16
Ventrate Cat....FR  FR  FR  FR  FR  FR  FR  FR  PR  PR

.THURSDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (10-20 percent).
CWR.................0 percent.
Temperature.........Min 17.
RH..................Max 73 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......North winds around 5 mph early in the evening
                    becoming light.
Mixing height.......400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....North 5 to 10 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (3300 knot-ft).
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.

TIME (CST)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky cover.......CLR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR PC
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............26  24  22  21  20  20  20  20  20  19  18  18
RH..............48  54  62  65  67  67  67  67  67  70  73  70
20 FT wind dir..N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N
20 FT wind spd..6   5   3   3   3   2   2   2   2   2   2   2
20 FT wind gust.10  9   8   8   7   6   5   5   5   5   5   3
Mix hgt (kft)...0.6 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.9 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.0 0.9
Transp wind dir.N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N
Transp wind spd.10  10  10  10  9   9   8   8   7   7   6   5
Haines index....4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4
Vrate kt-ft/1K..5   3   4   6   7   8   8   8   8   7   5   4
Ventrate Cat....PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR

$$
Forecaster...POULOS
Requested by...Korben Tucker
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2427672.0/PAH
.DELDT 12/03/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL korben.tucker@mdc.mo.gov