Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
440
FGUS73 KPAH 271751
ESFPAH
ILC003-047-055-059-065-069-077-081-087-127-145-151-153-165-181-
185-191-193-199-INC051-125-129-147-163-173-KYC007-033-035-039-047-
055-059-075-083-101-105-107-139-143-145-149-157-177-219-221-225-
233-MOC017-023-031-035-133-143-157-181-201-207-223-131200-
PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1148 AM CST THU FEB 27 2025
..Spring Flood and Water Resources Outlook Number 2...
This outlook is for the NWS Paducah service area. It covers the time
period for March through May. It includes the mid-Mississippi and
lower Ohio Rivers and their tributaries for southwest Indiana,
southern Illinois, west Kentucky and southeast Missouri.
...Flood Outlook Highlights...
Flood potential is normal to slightly above normal across the Ohio
Valley and its tributaries. Flood potential is normal to below
normal for the outlook period for the Mississippi River Valley and
its smaller tributaries.
Flooding in this region occurs mainly due to conditions of ground
moisture, river flows, and expected precipitation. Ice jams are
rarely a factor in flooding for this part of the country.
...Current Conditions...
Very heavy rain fell across the Ohio Valley February 15 and 16. Four
to six inches of rain fell across most of Kentucky with some locally
higher amounts. This event was followed quickly by a winter storm
that produced 3 to 5 inches across most of area with an area of 5 to
8 inches across parts of southeast Missouri. Temperatures plunged to
much below normal levels for a few days before moderating this week.
The heavy rain event caused most of west Kentucky`s rivers to rise
and spill out of their banks. Widespread moderate flooding occurred
on the Green and Ohio Rivers. A few points crested around the major
level. Most of the smaller streams, while falling, are still running
above normal.
Smaller rivers in southeast Missouri are running near normal. The
Ohio River near the confluence with the Mississippi River is running
over 200% above normal while the Mississippi River above Cairo is
running below normal.
Soil moisture is above normal across most of the region. There is no
frost depth in our region. There is very little snow in the
Mississippi or the Ohio Valleys that would contribute significant
runoff for flooding.
...Probabilistic Outlooks...
In Table 1 below...the current (CS) and historical (HS) or normal
probabilities of exceeding minor...moderate...and major flood stages
are listed for the valid time period.
CS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on current conditions.
HS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on historical or normal conditions.
When the value of CS is more than HS...the probability of
exceeding that level is higher than normal. When the value of CS is
less than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is lower
than normal.
...Table 1--Probabilities for minor...moderate and major flooding...
Valid Period: 03/05/2025 - 06/03/2025
: Current and Historical
: Chances of Exceeding
: Flood Categories
: as a Percentage (%)
Categorical :
Flood Stages (FT) : Minor Moderate Major
Location Minor Mod Major : CS HS CS HS CS HS
-------- ----- ----- ----- : --- --- --- --- --- ---
:Green River
Calhoun 23.0 26.0 32.0 : 34 41 22 27 <5 6
Paradise 380.0 386.0 400.0 : 71 69 30 32 <5 <5
:Little Wabash River
Carmi 27.0 32.0 35.0 : 71 66 41 39 25 21
:Ohio River
Evansville 42.0 48.0 52.0 : 31 31 <5 <5 <5 <5
Golconda 40.0 49.0 55.0 : 48 46 <5 9 <5 <5
Henderson 36.0 43.0 48.0 : 49 43 <5 <5 <5 <5
Mount Vernon 35.0 45.0 52.0 : 70 70 <5 9 <5 <5
Newburgh Dam 38.0 48.0 56.0 : 82 80 <5 <5 <5 <5
Owensboro 40.0 44.0 49.0 : 44 39 <5 10 <5 <5
Shawneetown 33.0 43.0 53.0 : 75 83 22 38 <5 <5
J.T. Myers Dam 37.0 49.0 60.0 : 72 77 <5 10 <5 <5
:Patoka River
Princeton 18.0 20.0 23.0 : 70 63 54 50 27 19
:Skillet Fork River
Wayne City 15.0 17.0 20.0 : 46 43 38 35 27 24
:Wabash River
New Harmony 15.0 20.0 23.0 : 81 82 26 27 <5 <5
:Black River
Poplar Bluff 16.0 19.0 21.0 : 19 35 5 17 <5 10
:Current River
Doniphan 13.0 18.0 22.0 : 11 24 6 14 <5 9
Van Buren 20.0 23.0 27.0 : <5 14 <5 9 <5 7
:Mississippi River
Cape Girardeau 32.0 37.0 42.0 : 51 81 29 63 16 42
Hickman 34.0 40.0 43.0 : >95 >95 55 69 37 58
New Madrid 34.0 40.0 44.0 : 58 65 14 27 <5 <5
Thebes 33.0 37.0 42.0 : 42 75 24 57 12 34
:Ohio River
Cairo 40.0 47.0 53.0 : >95 94 54 64 22 38
Olmsted Lock and 36.0 42.0 47.0 : >95 91 >95 65 31 45
Paducah 39.0 43.0 52.0 : >95 69 70 53 7 15
Smithland Dam 40.0 48.0 50.0 : >95 62 9 20 7 15
:St. Francis River
Fisk 20.0 22.0 26.0 : 14 25 10 24 <5 21
Patterson 16.0 25.0 32.0 : 26 55 8 19 <5 9
:Big Muddy River
Plumfield 20.0 27.0 34.0 : 56 56 17 14 <5 <5
Murphysboro 22.0 28.0 36.0 : 59 73 37 47 16 16
Legend
CS = Conditional Simulation (Current Outlook)
HS = Historical Simulation
FT = Feet
In Table 2 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of exceeding the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid
time period.
...Table 2--Exceedance Probabilities...
Chance of Exceeding Stages
at Specific Locations
Valid Period: 03/05/2025 - 06/03/2025
Location 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Green River
Calhoun 15.3 16.2 16.8 18.6 25.4 28.1 30.7
Paradise 374.6 376.1 379.4 382.7 386.9 390.0 392.6
:Little Wabash River
Carmi 19.0 22.8 26.3 30.4 35.0 36.2 37.5
:Ohio River
Evansville 30.7 33.3 35.3 40.6 42.4 43.4 43.8
Golconda 34.1 35.0 36.1 39.7 43.2 46.2 47.9
Henderson 26.2 28.6 30.6 35.9 37.9 38.9 39.3
Mount Vernon 29.7 31.9 33.9 39.3 41.4 43.2 43.8
Newburgh Dam 33.3 36.4 39.3 43.3 44.4 45.4 45.8
Owensboro 30.1 32.6 35.1 39.6 41.3 42.7 43.6
Shawneetown 29.1 30.8 33.0 38.8 42.4 44.9 46.5
J.T. Myers Dam 32.2 34.0 36.4 41.7 45.3 47.1 48.5
:Patoka River
Princeton 12.8 13.4 17.4 20.4 23.3 25.0 25.7
:Skillet Fork River
Wayne City 9.7 10.6 11.5 13.8 20.7 24.3 25.3
:Wabash River
New Harmony 11.5 13.4 16.0 18.5 20.1 21.2 21.7
:Black River
Poplar Bluff 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 14.8 17.6 19.1
:Current River
Doniphan 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 8.0 13.3 18.7
Van Buren 3.2 3.0 2.6 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0
:Mississippi River
Cape Girardeau 8.5 8.2 7.9 7.6 7.2 6.2 5.7
Hickman 22.4 20.0 17.9 14.1 11.7 9.4 7.5
New Madrid 18.4 16.1 14.7 11.5 9.2 6.8 4.8
Thebes 9.8 9.8 9.2 8.7 8.2 7.1 6.7
:Ohio River
Cairo 29.0 26.5 25.3 22.1 19.1 15.9 14.0
Olmsted Lock and 23.8 23.3 22.5 22.2 22.1 22.1 22.1
Paducah 21.7 20.7 18.6 18.1 17.5 17.2 16.8
Smithland Dam 22.4 21.6 19.0 17.3 15.8 15.3 14.1
:St. Francis River
Fisk 7.3 7.3 7.3 7.3 14.5 22.2 25.4
Patterson 5.3 5.2 4.9 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.3
:Big Muddy River
Plumfield 15.7 17.0 18.3 21.1 23.9 29.8 33.1
Murphysboro 16.0 16.4 19.4 25.1 31.4 42.2 43.6
In Table 3 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of falling below the listed stage levels (FT) for the
valid time period.
...Table 3--Nonexceedance Probabilities...
Chance of Falling Below Stages
at Specific Locations
Valid Period: 03/05/2025 - 06/03/2025
Location 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Green River
Calhoun 12.2 11.5 10.9 10.4 10.3 10.1 10.0
Paradise 368.0 366.7 365.7 364.9 364.7 364.4 364.4
:Little Wabash River
Carmi 7.1 5.4 4.4 3.8 3.3 3.1 2.9
:Ohio River
Evansville 18.8 16.4 15.5 14.6 14.1 13.8 13.6
Golconda 29.9 29.8 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.5
Henderson 16.1 14.3 13.6 12.9 12.5 12.3 12.2
Mount Vernon 24.2 23.9 23.7 23.5 23.4 23.4 23.3
Newburgh Dam 18.8 17.3 16.1 14.8 14.0 13.6 13.2
Owensboro 19.2 19.0 19.0 19.0 19.0 19.0 19.0
Shawneetown 19.2 17.9 16.8 15.6 15.2 15.0 14.9
J.T. Myers Dam 20.4 18.8 17.2 15.1 14.5 13.8 12.9
:Patoka River
Princeton 8.8 7.6 6.3 5.1 3.7 3.0 2.8
:Skillet Fork River
Wayne City 5.5 5.5 5.4 5.3 5.3 5.2 5.2
:Wabash River
New Harmony 4.6 4.5 3.7 3.2 2.5 2.1 1.5
:Current River
Van Buren 3.2 3.0 2.6 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0
:Mississippi River
Cape Girardeau 8.5 8.2 7.9 7.6 7.2 6.2 5.7
Hickman 22.4 20.0 17.9 14.1 11.7 9.4 7.5
New Madrid 18.4 16.1 14.7 11.5 9.2 6.8 4.8
Thebes 9.8 9.8 9.2 8.7 8.2 7.1 6.7
:Ohio River
Cairo 29.0 26.5 25.3 22.1 19.1 15.9 14.0
Olmsted Lock and 23.8 23.3 22.5 22.2 22.1 22.1 22.1
Paducah 21.7 20.7 18.6 18.1 17.5 17.2 16.8
Smithland Dam 22.4 21.6 19.0 17.3 15.8 15.3 14.1
:St. Francis River
Patterson 5.3 5.2 4.9 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.3
:Big Muddy River
Plumfield 1.1 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.4
These long-range probabilistic outlooks contain forecast values that
are calculated using multiple season scenarios from 30 or more years
of climatological data...including current conditions of the
river...soil moisture...snow cover...and 30 to 90 day long-range
outlooks of temperature and precipitation. By providing a range of
probabilities...the level of risk associated with long-range planning
decisions can be determined. These probabilistic forecasts are part
of the National Weather Service`s advanced hydrologic prediction
service.
...Weather Outlooks...
Quiet and cooler weather will continue into the weekend before a
fairly active weather pattern takes hold. A storm system will affect
the region by the middle part of next week bringing showers and
thunderstorms. One to two inches of rain may be possible. Current
models show a storm system affecting the area every 3 to 4 days
through mid to late March. It is too early to narrow down amounts
with each system.
The 8 to 14 day outlook for March 6 through 12 calls for normal to
above normal temperatures and precipitation. During this time,
normal average temperatures are around 45 degrees and rainfall
during this period is around 1 inch.
The Outlook for March calls for above normal precipitation. Normal
precipitation for March is around 4 1/2 to 5 inches. The outlook
for March through May calls for above normal precipitation.
Visit our web site weather.gov/pah for more weather and water
information.
The next Spring Flood and Water Resources Outlook will be issued
March 13, 2025.
$$
ML