631
FXUS63 KPAH 082228
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
528 PM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Daily chances of showers and thunderstorms continue with
  torrential downpours and lightning. Isolated strong storms
  today may cause a brief downburst.

- Heat indices on Friday and Saturday near 100 degrees, but the
  duration will be short with improvements by Sunday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 526 PM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025

Updated Aviation discussion for 00Z TAF Issuance.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1234 PM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025

A complex of storms associated with modest isentropic lift and
a warm front between 925-850 mb will continue to decay this
afternoon across the FA as a 500 mb shortwave is now approaching
from north central Missouri. The strongest storms will remain
over western Kentucky where brief gusty winds cannot be ruled
out. The CAMs indicate an additional broken line of showers and
storms will be possible this evening across the north and west,
but then quickly weaken as the morning convection will make it
more difficult to destabilize. The RAP13 indicates a sharp
instability gradient setting up across portions of southeast
Missouri and southern Illinois with MLCAPE values of 1500-2000
J/kg. Combined with a max theta-e difference of 25K and sfc-3km
lapse rates around 7.0 C/km, the main concern similar to
yesterday will be the potential for a brief downburst along with
torrential downpours and lightning. With PWATs around 2 inches
and weak flow aloft, rainfall rates can quickly cause locally up
to 1-2 inches that can lead to some flooding issues in low-
lying locations.

Deep layer moisture in the column now begins to decrease on
Wednesday, favoring less coverage in scattered shower and storm
chances through the rest of the week. Any storms that do
develop will still be capable of causing locally heavy rainfall
and lightning, but overall no particular day looks to be a
complete wash out. Pcpn chances do increase again over the
weekend as a 500 mb shortwave and sfc cold front transverses
across the Plains. Model guidance then diverges early next week
between broad troughing and a ridge that builds over the SE
CONUS that would favor lower storm chances.

Daily high temperatures will remain in the mid 80s to near 90
with lows ranging from the upper 60s to lower 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 526 PM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025

Storms moving this direction from STL may impact the KMVN-KCGI
and potentially KPAH terminals with early evening convection and
associated restrictions to cigs/vsbys. Afterward, conditions
improve, but some overnight-daybreak fog is still a potentiallow
cigs/vsbys candidate. Otherwise, a general improving trend will
be noted heading into/thru the day tmrw.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$