199
FXUS63 KPAH 161729
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1229 PM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- River flooding is ongoing across the region. Water levels will be
  slow to fall this week for many points after cresting.

- An unsettled pattern returns Friday night into the weekend
  with multiple chances for showers and thunderstorms. Strong to
  severe thunderstorms and heavy rainfall are possible. Rainfall
  amounts of 1 to 3 inches may occur.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 233 AM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025

Upper level heights rise tonight through Thursday in response to
energy diving south into the northwest U.S. Warm air advection
combined with weak ripples in the flow will generate some light
shower activity tonight into Thursday morning, largely exiting the
region by afternoon. Southerly flow really increases Thursday
afternoon with wind gusts of 25 to 35 mph expected (highest gusts
across southeast MO and southwest IL). This will usher in warmer
temperatures with highs returning to the mid 70s for the southwest
half of the area.

Surface low pressure developing across the Plains will lift across
the Midwest into the Great Lakes Friday into Friday night. This will
allow a cold front to sink south into our FA Friday night into
Saturday. The best instability/shear environment will be northwest
of us on Friday, and gradually fade as convection progresses
southeast into our area late evening or overnight. Therefore, can`t
rule out a few strong to severe storms, but the threat does seem
somewhat limited. SPC Day 3 has a marginal risk for severe storms
across the northwest 2/3rds of the area. Greater concern may be
training convection as the boundary becomes oriented more east-west
into Saturday.

The signal has been fairly consistent with regards to the heaviest
QPF occurring across our northwest counties and the bullseye
remaining more along the I-44 corridor in Missouri and I-70 corridor
in Illinois. Current model suite suggests 2 to 3" amounts remain
possible for parts of southeast MO and southern IL with lesser
amounts further southeast into west KY.

While some severe potential exists on Saturday, the greatest concern
may end up being on Sunday into Sunday night. The latest ECMWF and
Canadian depict a negatively tilted 500mb trough ejecting across
Missouri. Strong low level and deep layer wind fields look to be
present combined with a moisture rich airmass and temperatures
possibly warming to near 80 degrees ahead of the frontal passage.
Timing on the 00z ECMWF would place the convection through here late
afternoon and evening, so prime time. It`s worth noting the GFS has
trended more progressive with this secondary wave again, which would
squash the severe potential for Sunday. Thus, there is still decent
model variability owing to less confidence in a more significant
severe threat.

Early next week may end up being dry in the wake of the frontal
passage Sunday night. Models quickly diverge by mid to late week
though, with some hinting at an active weather pattern remaining in
place through possibly the rest of the month. For what it`s worth,
the latest week 3 supercell composite parameter from the CFSv2 is
hinting at a possibly active pattern for severe storms the week of
April 29 through May 5 across a large area from the Southern Plains
into the mid Mississippi Valley. Let`s hope that is wrong!

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1226 PM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025

VFR conditions expected through almost the whole period. Winds
will remain light and variable until tomorrow. High clouds will
start moving in from the northwest later this afternoon and
some warm air advection showers may pop up later today through
tomorrow. With these showers tomorrow afternoon KMVN will see
some MVFR cigs.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...SP
AVIATION...SHAWKEY