262
FXUS63 KPAH 300646
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
146 AM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Patchy and locally dense fog will be possible this morning and
  then particularly on Tuesday morning depending exactly on how
  quickly higher level clouds dissipiate.

- Lower 80s returns to the forecast by Tuesday, then a cold
  front`s passage cools us into the 70s Wednesday, before more
  80s return to finish the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 146 AM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024

Main concern for the next few hours will be for fog potential if
we can get any consistent breaks in the mid and lower level
stratus. If we are going to get significant fog formation before
morning it appears most likely along the Pennyrile region where
cloud cover has been less and dewpoint depressions are lower.

This afternoon vertical mixing should break up the overcast
some, particularly by the afternoon. It should be warmer than
what we have seen the last few days. Fog potential looks a
little better on Tuesday morning as there is a better chance
that subsidence behind a shortwave trough over AL/MS/GA
dissipates the residual stratus deck enough to get stronger
radiational cooling. A predominantly dry cold front moves
through Tuesday which should finally clear the region more
definitively from the soupy mess of the remnants of Hurricane
Helene.

Humidity starts to return via some southwesterly winds by
Thursday. The GFS is stronger with a trough and front that moves
through Friday night into Saturday giving us very low-end precip
chances. ECMWF members hold this off more til after the weekend.
It looks relatively benign regardless, with just some subtle
temperature differences the end result. We will see how it
evolves this week.


&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1034 PM CDT Sun Sep 29 2024

The main focus overnight is low stratus clouds that will develop
across the region. Model guidance has backed off slightly from
the previous TAF update, but at least IFR/MVFR cigs & vsbys
remain progged through early Monday morning, with LIFR cigs
still possible mainly in the eastern terminals. While low
stratus clouds is likely the main concern tonight, patchy fog
still remains possible, especially across western Kentucky.
Winds will remain light & variable.

Drier air will result in a return to only MVFR cigs by mid
Monday morning, followed by VFR conditions in the afternoon. As
an upper level disturbance spins in the atmosphere, a few
returning showers remain possible across the eastern terminals.
Light N-NE winds around 5 kts are forecast.

Mid level clouds will scatter out Monday night allowing for the
boundary layer to decouple with calm winds. Model guidance is
hinting at some fog potential towards the end of the TAF
period.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JGG
AVIATION...DW