290
FXUS63 KPAH 060636
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
136 AM CDT Sun Apr 6 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Considerable to catastrophic flooding continues across the
  area due to historically high weekly rainfall amounts of over
  one foot in places, flooding homes and businesses. While the
  heaviest of rains is over, any additional rains will only
  serve to further delay improvements.

- Below to well below normal temperatures and mostly dry
  conditions for the first half of the new week. This includes a
  chance of freezing temperatures the coldest night, Monday
  night, with a Freeze Watch now in effect.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 130 AM CDT Sun Apr 6 2025

While the last of the heavier rain pushes out, it should be
noted that we do remain under a wet southwesterly flow aloft
still, so lingering showers are anticipated today as the parent
low pressure trof responsible moves over the Mississippi River
Valley. It will therefore take awhile (the better part of the
day) for pops to completely disappear, and the same applies
further for clouds to ultimately clear (tonight-tmrw). Once it
does, the colder and drier air overtakes the column and becomes
the new sensible weather feature of emphasis...ie with 30s lows
forecast each of the first 3 nights of the new work week.
Monday night looks coldest, with a consistent ensemble signal of
32 degrees or less for lows...we`ve joined our neighbors with a
Freeze Watch for late Monday night into Tuesday morning. Mild
frost concerns the nights prior and after also exist but are
balanced out by mitigating concerns about sky/wind/temp.

We start to seasonally warm up again just as the next chance of
rain/storms comes for the latter half of the week...primarily
Wed-Thu.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 130 AM CDT Sun Apr 6 2025

While heavier rains push south of the terminals, scattered
showers remain possible through the course of the day as the
parent upper trof swings thru the region. This will keep
restricted cigs/vsbys for this package, as even after the
showers clear, bases will take awhile longer before they can be
dissipated by incoming high pressure. Brisk/gusty north winds
will diminish tonight as this pattern transformation evolves.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT this morning for ILZ075>078-080>094.
     Freeze Watch from late Monday night through Tuesday morning
     for ILZ075>078-080>094.
MO...Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT this morning for MOZ076-086-087-100-
     107>112-114.
     Freeze Watch from late Monday night through Tuesday morning
     for MOZ076-086-087-100-107>112-114.
IN...Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT /8 AM EDT/ this morning for INZ081-
     082-085>088.
     Freeze Watch from late Monday night through Tuesday morning
     for INZ081-082-085>088.
KY...Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT this morning for KYZ001>022.
     Freeze Watch from late Monday night through Tuesday morning
     for KYZ001>022.

&&

$$