613
FXUS63 KPAH 130615
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
115 AM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- High pressure keeps the bulk of the new week dry and
  seasonally mild.

- Rain/thunderstorm chances return next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 115 AM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025

Patchy fog retains its nightly potential under high pressure
that presages moclear skies and light/calm winds.

The 00Z modeling tonight of the upper high is coming in stronger
and nearer with its ridge center than previous nights. This
will presumably increase forecast high temps, as H8 temps
increase from 10-13C to 13-15C over the ensuing 48 hours, and H5
heights climb from 580-582 DM to 589-592 DM over that same time
frame. These first days of the week will see the warmest temps
as the upper high translates practically overhead. The surface
high moves from the Great Lakes to the Mid-Upper Ohio Valley
during this same time, with its ridge axis extended firmly
across our CWA. This results in a continued NE-E mean
trajectory flow that reinforces daily dew points in the 50s.
Highs should be reaching toward/into the 80s for many during each
of these first days of the week.

The high ultimately shifts east by week`s end, as broad troffing
to the west drives a system our direction. All models have
suggested this each of the past 3 nights, though with
differences; the main one is the progressive nature of the GFS
vs the slower/more amplifed Euro. The NBM continues to show GFS
bias in its blended output, but the net effect is the same - a
shift toward a more active pattern with a reintroduction of pcpn
chances to the forecast by/at some point during next weekend,
whichever modeling approach pans out. And this may herald a more
active soon-to-come pattern, as the 6-10 day outlook continues
to ping Above/Above.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 115 AM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025

Patchy pre dawn fog remains possible, offering sporadic
reductions to vsbys that may potentially lead to temporary
restricted flight rules at times. Otherwise, it`s a Visual
Flight Rules predominated forecast governed by persistently
strong high pressure. And while a FEW diurnal bases in the
4.5-6K FT AGL range remain possible, gridded time/height cross
sections suggest mid-high based clouds will be on the uptick,
particularly over the back half of the forecast.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$