671
FXUS63 KPAH 162326
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
626 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A significant dangerous severe weather outbreak is expected
  this afternoon into this evening. All severe hazards are in
  play...including strong/intense, and potentially long tracked
  tornadoes, widespread and potentially significant damaging
  wind, and large and damaging hail. The inherent risk of
  flooding from very heavy rain will be more localized.

- More stormy weather returns early next week with severe
  weather potential again Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1148 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025

As the atmosphere recovers from early day thunderstorms, all
indications are that by mid afternoon, we will again be primed
and ready for severe storms to develop. Our thermodynamics
remain charged, with 3500-4500 J/KG2 expected ahead of the
approaching system. It brings with it the right entrance region
of an upper level jet, while the low levels start cranking
too...deep layer shear remains largely 50-60 KTS thru the
event. The incoming CAM models all paint some discrete
development as early as 19 or 20Z, with more elements becoming
linear with time thereafter. There is some play between about
half of the modeling suggesting an area of low pressure
developing with a warm and cold sector on the mesoscale or
smaller, while the other half are more discrete with perhaps two
line segments moving across the area. STP still goes up to
about 7 and with such high CAPE and SRH that is 250-350 m2/s2 on
average, we`re concerned at the high end potential for
significant tornadoes/damaging wind, not to mention the large
hail threat. Residual boundaries laid out already or in the pm
convective atmosphere may further complicate these layouts, but
it appears that regardless of that, or it even muting that
somewhat, we`ll have an active and very dangerous afternoon-
evening to come. Ultimately we may see the convection line out
with intense wind gusts in excess of 70 mph as it sweeps across
the area by late evening. In addition to the aforementioned
hazards, we`ll also see an inherent risk of flooding from very
heavy rain, but it should be more localized.

We get a short-lived pause thereafter, CWA-glancing activity
not withstanding, that carries us thru the first half of the
weekend, before the pattern turns more active the back half of
the weekend and leading into next week. That`s when our next
best chance of strong storms comes in by/for Day5 (Tuesday), but
many elements will have to come together between now and then
for us to have higher confidence precision in the 15% blanket
SPC has overtop most of the PAH FA for now.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 626 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025

Several large supercell storms will continue quickly east this
evening, and may eventually grow into a line over west Kentucky
later this evening. KMVN should already be out of the woods, and
KCGI will be close at 00Z. It should be done at KPAH and KOWB by
03Z. Wind gusts over 50kts, large hail, and tornadoes are all
potential hazards. Ahead of the storms south winds will gust
20-25kts. Winds will eventually settle down under 10kts
overnight as they shift to the west southwest. West winds will
gust 15-25kt for much of the day Saturday.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DH
AVIATION...DRS