176
FXUS63 KPAH 121052
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
552 AM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Elevated fire weather conditions will continue across northern and
  eastern portions of the region today.

- A few showers or isolated storms are possible tonight through
  Thursday.

- Severe thunderstorms are possible Friday evening and night. Outside
  of any thunderstorms, southwest winds may gust to 40+ mph.

- Additional severe thunderstorms are possible on Saturday across
  southwest Indiana and west Kentucky.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 548 AM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025

Updated aviation discussion for 12z TAFs.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 251 AM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025

Another mostly sunny and warm day is on tap today. An increase in
moisture is expected across the southwest portions of the area ahead
of an incoming disturbance from the Southern Plains. However,
glancing at the latest RAP/HRRR runs indicate dewpoints will likely
mix down to low 40s (possibly upper 30s in a few spots) across
northern and eastern parts of the area. As temperatures warm into
the mid to upper 70s, RH`s likely will fall below 30% for these
areas and some readings to 25% or lower are possible. This will lead
to another day of elevated fire weather concerns for portions of
southern Illinois, southwest Indiana, and the Pennyrile of west
Kentucky.

A weak disturbance will migrate across the TN Valley tonight into
Thursday. There seems to be a good amount of dry air to overcome
with this system, and forcing isn`t great. Many of the CAMs really
struggle to generate much and the synoptic models aren`t all that
generous either with areal extent. Seems there will be some
scattered showers around after 06z tonight and continuing into
Thursday, with best chances closer to the AR/TN borders, but QPF
will likely be quite light with amounts generally under a tenth of
an inch. With some instability present, can`t rule out an isolated
storm.

Attention then turns to a potent storm system set to impact the area
Friday through Saturday. The 00z suite of models have remained
rather consistent depicting a strong negatively tilted 500mb trough
ejecting into the mid-Mississippi Valley Friday night. At the
surface, a 975mb low will occlude as it moves from near Omaha, NE
into the Upper Midwest. Upper level divergence will be maximized
across our area Friday evening/night. Right now it looks like a
line of storms will develop ahead of a dry line across MO/AR and
move into southeast Missouri by around 00z. Aided by a 70-75 kt
LLJ, mid level lapse rates of 7-7.5 C, and appreciable surface
CAPE, ingredients are certainly there for damaging winds and
embedded tornadoes along this QLCS feature as it pivots
northeastward through the evening and even into the early
overnight hours. The low level moisture isn`t anything to write
home about, with dewpoints struggling into the upper 50s to near
60, but this may be enough given the overall environment in
place. SPC Day 3 outlook has the entire region in an Enhanced
risk. Would tend to think the threat would diminish some after
midnight as the QLCS pushes into southwest Indiana and the
Kentucky Pennyrile though, so the threat may end up being a bit
lower for those areas.

On Saturday, a second impulse will dive across the Southern Plains
and through the TN Valley. The dryline appears to push back westward
before sweeping east across west Kentucky and southwest Indiana
during the afternoon. Placement of this feature will be somewhat
dependent on the overall evolution of Friday night`s convection
though and exact timing of the secondary impulse ejecting across the
area. For now, severe storms remain a possibility for the eastern
portions of the region Saturday afternoon. Another concern could be
localized heavier rainfall amounts with some guidance depicting
swaths of 2" across the Kentucky Pennyrile. Will need to monitor
this in case the trend continues upwards, but overall the flooding
threat still appears marginal with greater chances for the heavier
QPF off to our east and southeast.

Much cooler air briefly settles in for Sunday as the upper trough
slides overhead but it will be short-lived given upper ridging
developing again early next week. Highs in the 50s on Sunday will
push back into the 60s and 70s early in the week. Ensembles suggest
another trough pushing across the Mississippi Valley next
Wednesday, bringing the possibility for another chance for rain.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 548 AM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025

Southwest winds will increase today with gusts of 15 to 20 kts
expected. Mainly SKC through the day aside for SCT high cloud.
Clouds increase and bases lower into the 5-10kft range this
evening and overnight as a weak disturbance moves in. Some light
showers are possible after midnight, mainly for southern
terminals. An isolated storm can`t be ruled out either.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DWS
DISCUSSION...SP
AVIATION...SP