061
FXUS63 KPAH 272044
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
344 PM CDT Thu Mar 27 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and a few thunderstorms will stream southeast across
  the Evansville Tri State tonight.

- Friday will be dry and warm.

- Wet weekend is in store as numerous showers and a few
  thunderstorms stream northward over the Quad State from
  Friday night through Saturday night.

- Numerous showers and storms are expected Sunday through
  Sunday night. Severe storms with large hail, damaging winds,
  tornadoes, and heavy rainfall will all be possible, mainly in
  the afternoon and evening.

- Chances of showers and thunderstorms return to the forecast
  late Tuesday night through Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 343 PM CDT Thu Mar 27 2025

An area of showers with a few rumbles of thunder will continue
east southeastward through the Evansville Tri State into the
evening. This activity is riding down the cool side of a
stationary/warm front draped across the region. Although much of
today`s guidance wipes out this activity and then lifts the
boundary northeast of the region by daybreak Friday, continued
development over the boundary would seem like a decent
possibility until the boundary lifts out of the area. The
current area of convection would be done by 03Z, but we maintain
PoPs through around 09Z just to be safe. Instability is very
limited and severe storms are unlikely tonight.

The entire Quad State should be in the warm sector Friday, which
will lead to a dry and warm day. The only concern for warming
will be increasing mid and high clouds from the southwest. As a
result, the warmest temperatures may be across the I-64 corridor.
Highs should be in the upper 70s and lower 80s.

Some initial showers could begin to stream northward into
southeast Missouri Friday evening, but we hold off on PoPs
until late Friday night. The NBM may be a bit slow here. PoPs
would mainly be needed over southeast Missouri and southern
Illinois as a weakening upper storm system approaches the
region. The models are not in very good agreement in timing and
coverage of convection with this system. It really doesn`t have
a surface reflection, as it is being assimilated into the
strengthening southwest flow aloft. We may just have an
extended period of warm advection showers and storms Friday
night into Sunday morning, more in line with the low-level warm
advection forcing than any forcing with the decaying upper
trough. Shear and instability will be weak through this entire
period, so locally heavy rainfall and lightning will be the
primary concerns.

With the uncertainty in the forecast Saturday and Saturday
night, the forecast details for Sunday and Sunday night are not
clear at all. However, the models continue to develop
1000-2000J/kg of SBCAPE and 40-45kts of deep-layer shear, so
severe storms are a concern. Whether that is with a line near or
just ahead of the main boundary or with supercells remains to
be seen, but at this time all modes of severe are on the table.
Heavy rainfall and possibly some localized flooding problems
could also develop.

Monday will be dry and cooler, with temperatures a few degrees
below normal. The cool air will be short-lived as a warming
trend is forecast Tuesday into Wednesday. There remains
considerable uncertainty in the flow pattern next week, but at
this time most of the guidance is bringing showers and
thunderstorms to the region late Tuesday night through
Wednesday and possibly into next Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1243 PM CDT Thu Mar 27 2025

The TAFs are VFR. An area of showers will attempt to move
southeast potentially impacting KMVN, KEVV, and KOWB with some
VFR rain late this afternoon into the early evening. Otherwise,
guidance has trended much drier for tonight, so the forecasts
are dry thereafter. Considerable mid-level clouds are expected
through the period. South winds could gusts 15-20kts at times
this afternoon at KCGI and KPAH. LLWS will be possible
throughout the area tonight with 200/40kts expected at 2kft AGL.
South southwest winds will increase in the morning and sustained
15kts with gusts to 25kts will be possible mainly at KCGI and
KMVN before the end of the period. These stronger winds will
wait until after this forecast period farther to the east.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DRS
AVIATION...DRS