824
FXUS63 KPAH 241712
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1212 PM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A pattern change this week will bring below normal
  temperatures to the region. Highs will range from the middle
  70s to lower 80s with lows falling into the 50s (even upper
  40s in a few locations). A few record lows are possible.

- Much of the week will be dry, but chances of rain return to
  portions of the region later in the week. However, there
  remains fairly high uncertainty.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1205 PM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025

Updated aviation discussion for 18z TAFs.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 235 AM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025

An expansive upper trough and region of cyclonic flow extends
from the northern plains and across the Great Lakes this
morning. A surface front is currently moving across the region,
with upstream observations showing dewpoints falling into the
50s behind the front. High pressure will spread south from the
plains and Midwest today offering continued dry conditions and
cooler temperatures. Highs will climb into the upper 70s to mid
80s by the afternoon. Afternoon mixing will allow for some
stronger wind gusts up to 20 mph to mix down to the surface.

We see cooler air filtering in by Monday and continuing through
much of the week associated with broad northwest flow aloft and
surface high pressure extending from the northern Plains and
into the Ohio Valley. Highs Monday and Tuesday will largely
remain in the mid to upper 70s, with only a slight warming trend
Wednesday onward. The surface high building over the region
will bring excellent radiational cooling conditions allowing
lows to fall into the 50s area-wide, with a few locations seeing
lows in the 40s. Early to mid week looks to remain dry given
high pressure in place. A passing disturbance is progged to
move from the plains Monday into Monday night. Precipitation
should largely remain south of the region but increasing cloud
cover seems probable with this system.

Late in the week troughing begins to move east with much of the
region remaining in northwest flow. A couple of disturbances
within this flow are progged to move out of the plains and
across the region, although uncertainty is still high at this
time on how these systems impact the region with precipitation.
As previous discussions have mentioned, southeast Missouri is
the most favored locations at this time to see some beneficial
rains should precipitation make its way into the area.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1205 PM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025

Surface high pressure building into the region today will
provide mostly clear skies, aside for SCT cu along and north of
I-64. SCT high clouds may stream across the southwest half of
the region tonight, with an increase in mid-high cloud
anticipated at KCGI/KPAH terminals through the day tomorrow. NW
winds will gust up to 15-20 kt through the afternoon before
becoming light/variable tonight. Winds won`t be as strong on
Monday, but some gusts are still possible at KEVV/KOWB.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...SP
DISCUSSION...AD
AVIATION...SP